The EURUSD is keeping the bias lean to the downside ahead of the US GDP which will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The Q4 GDP is expected to show a rise of 3.0% with the following details:
- GDP Sales Advance 2.6% vs 4.5% prior
- Deflator 2.9%
- Core PCE price advances: 2.6%
- PCE Advanced 2.8%
For the 3rd quarter:
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Personal Consumption (C): +2.34%
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Goods: +0.64%
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Services: +1.70 pp
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Private Investment (I): +0.03%
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Government Spending (G): +0.38%
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Net Trade (Exports − Imports): +1.66%
Quick Take
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Consumption was the primary growth engine in the quarter.
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Net exports were a large positive contributor (exports up / imports down).
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Government added modestly.
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Investment was essentially flat in terms of growth contribution.
Also to be released at 8:30 will be:
- US personal income for December estimate 0.3% versus 0.3% last month.
- Personal consumption for December 0.4% versus 0.5% last month.
- PCE for December 0.3% vs 0.2% last month
- PCE YoY 2.8% vs 2.8% last month
- Core PCE 0.3% vs 0.2% last month
- Core PCE YoY 2.8% vs 2.8% last month
The EURUSD is trading modestly lower to start the US session as markets position ahead of the upcoming data release.
From a technical perspective, the hourly chart shows that sellers were able to push the price below a key swing area between 1.1765 and 1.1778 yesterday — extending the downside move that began on Wednesday when the pair rotated lower from the 1.1860 area and moved away from its 100- and 200-hour moving averages. The decline reached a low of 1.1741 before buyers stepped in, prompting a corrective rebound that stalled at 1.17775 early in the Asian session.
Selling pressure resumed through the Asian and into the early European session today, with the price dipping to 1.1744 — just three pips above yesterday’s low — before finding support once again. The pair has since bounced back into the prior swing zone, placing that 1.1765–1.1778 region back into focus heading into the US data.
A move above this resistance area would shift short-term control back toward buyers and open the door for further upside momentum. Conversely, a break below the recent lows between 1.1741 and 1.1744 would reinforce the bearish bias, targeting 1.1726 next, followed by the 1.1700 level and the 100-day moving average at 1.1687.
