EURUSD technicals
The EURUSD attempted to break above its 200-hour moving average at 1.13510 in early U.S. trading, but—just like on Friday—buyers lacked follow-through and momentum quickly faded. The failed breakout attracted fresh selling interest, and the price has since rotated lower, falling back below both the 200-hour and 100-hour moving averages (the latter at 1.13354), shifting short-term control back to the sellers.
The next downside target lies at 1.13072, a low from the week before last. A break below that level would open the door toward the key swing area between 1.1271 and 1.12754. Beyond that, the 38.2% retracement of the March–April rally sits at 1.12505—a critical level for buyers to defend if they want to maintain control of the broader uptrend.
Despite buyers struggling to extend gains, sellers also have work to do. Only a firm move below 1.12505 level (the 38.2% retracement) would signal that they are regaining more meaningful control, challenging the buyers from the 843-pip rally from 1.0729 low on March 27 to 1.15726 high on April 21.
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