FX Macro Briefing – Friday 3 July 2026

The US Dollar remains resilient in early July trade, with USD/JPY at 161.175 and USD/CAD at 1.41634 reflecting persistent US rate premium expectations ahead of the July 4th holiday weekend. EUR/USD trades at 1.14488 and GBP/USD at 1.33663, both showing limited momentum as markets digest conflicting signals: soft US labour data weighed on rate-hike bets earlier this week, yet sticky inflation and Fed hawkish positioning continue to support greenback strength. The BoJ remains on the sidelines after June's hold, with forward guidance suggesting cautious normalisation; sterling holds firm despite UK economic softness, while the euro struggles against a resilient dollar despite ECB rate cuts already priced in. Gold at $4171.50 per oz has consolidated near multi-month highs as real yields hover near 2% and geopolitical tensions provide safe-haven bid; WTI crude at $69.56 reflects modest demand concerns offset by supply discipline, with attention on tomorrow's weekly inventory data.