FX Macro Briefing – September 25, 2026

The US dollar remains under modest pressure as markets recalibrate rate expectations following softer-than-anticipated economic data this week. EUR/USD at 1.13742 reflects continued ECB hawkish rhetoric offsetting dollar strength, while GBP/USD at 1.32160 signals sterling resilience despite UK growth concerns. USD/JPY at 158.272 suggests the BoJ's gradual normalization narrative is supporting modest yen appreciation, though the pair remains elevated by historical standards. Meanwhile, AUD/USD at 0.70171 reflects risk-off sentiment weighing on the commodity currency as bond yields compress globally. Gold at $4266.01 per oz continues to benefit from real-rate compression and geopolitical uncertainty, serving as a key barometer for USD weakness and inflation hedging demand. Key scheduled events today include preliminary Eurozone inflation prints and any last-minute US data releases that may signal the Fed's reaction function ahead of the next FOMC meeting. Markets are also monitoring central bank commentary—any additional hawkish signals from the ECB or dovish surprises from the Fed could trigger sharp reallocation across the major pairs. Risk sentiment remains fragile; deteriorating growth expectations and elevated commodity prices near current levels suggest further dollar softness is possible if risk-off intensifies, though a rebound in US yields would quickly reverse the trend.