FX Macro Briefing – October 12, 2026

The US Dollar remains range-bound as markets digest mixed signals on terminal rate expectations. EUR/USD at 1.12017 reflects modest euro resilience, though ECB easing bets continue to weigh on the bloc; GBP/USD at 1.32424 shows sterling holding ground despite UK growth concerns, while USD/JPY at 158.348 signals steady demand for the greenback versus a BoJ that remains on hold. USD/CAD at 1.42577 reflects North American divergence, with the Fed likely to hold its course while Bank of Canada faces recession-driven pressure. Gold near $4,188.53/oz remains elevated, underpinned by geopolitical uncertainty and real-rate sensitivity; any hawkish Fed signals or risk-off moves could support further upside. Today's critical focus: US inflation data and any Fed speaker commentary will be pivotal for dollar direction, as markets continue to price in a terminal rate scenario and potential 2027 rate-cut path.