FX Macro Briefing – 2026-07-02

The US dollar remains resilient this morning, underpinned by persistent real-rate support and safe-haven demand into the long weekend in major markets. USD/JPY at 162.338 reflects continued carry interest despite tepid Japanese inflation data, while USD/CAD at 1.42155 tracks softer Canadian growth signals. EUR/USD at 1.13857 and GBP/USD at 1.32925 show the single currency and sterling under modest pressure as European rate-cut expectations crystallize faster than Fed guidance permits. Gold at $4,066.79 per oz holds firm on geopolitical risks and real-rate cushions, while WTI crude at $68.39 remains bid on supply tightness ahead of the weekend. The critical event today is the US employment report revision and ISM services data, which will test the Fed's "higher for longer" narrative and determine whether dollar strength persists or corrects on soft data. Watch AUD/USD at 0.68935 for Asia-Pacific risk sentiment; any deterioration below 0.688 could signal broader equity weakness spilling into commodity currencies.