FX Macro Briefing: 2026-06-28

The US Dollar remains underpinned despite modest pullbacks, with USD/JPY holding firm at 161.755 as BoJ rate-hike expectations persist and Japanese yield differentials favor dollar longs. EUR/USD trades at 1.13893, reflecting lingering ECB policy uncertainty and mixed eurozone data; GBP/USD at 1.31978 shows resilience despite UK political headwinds. USD/CAD sits at 1.41925 amid softer Canadian growth signals and BoC easing bias, while AUD/USD at 0.68944 reflects risk-off sentiment and commodity pressure. Gold near $4,080.80/oz and silver at $58.911/oz remain volatile as real-rate expectations fluctuate; WTI crude at $70.24/barrel signals modest energy demand concerns. Risk sentiment is fragile heading into quarter-end and early Q3, with central bank messaging—particularly from the Fed, ECB, and BoJ—driving directional conviction more than economic data.