The EURUSD began the U.S. session near the day’s lows and the 100-day moving average at 1.16455. When that level was tested, buyers leaned against it, halting the decline and flipping the short-term bias higher. Momentum picked up, lifting the pair to a new session high above the Asian-Pacific peak at 1.16746, though it fell short of the October 7 swing high at 1.16804. The 38.2% retracement of the September decline sits just above at 1.1685, reinforcing that area as a key topside barrier.
Since then, the pair has eased back, currently trading near 1.1667.
So what’s next?
With the pair breaking and holding above the 100-day MA, the near-term bias tilts in favor of buyers. Still, a sustained move above 1.1680-1.1685 is needed to confirm a shift in broader sentiment and open the door to further upside momentum.
On the downside, watch 1.16596 — the upper edge of the prior swing area — as immediate support. If that level holds on a dip, it would signal buyer confidence and could lead to another push toward 1.1685 and beyond.
