The EURUSD extended higher in today’s session, breaking above its 100-hour moving average at 1.17305 and also pushing through a swing area between 1.17259 and 1.17419. That break opened the door for a rotation toward the 200-hour moving average at 1.17595 (currently moving lower), but momentum faded just shy of that target, with the pair peaking at 1.17538.
This leaves the market in an interesting technical crossroads. On the one hand, the price is now above the 100-hour moving average, which gives buyers a measure of control. On the other hand, the pair remains below the 200-hour moving average, leaving a ceiling that sellers can continue to lean against. In short, buyers and sellers are battling for dominance, and the next decisive move will likely come from a break of one of these two levels.
On the downside, a move back below the 100-hour moving average at 1.17305 and the low end of the swing area at 1.17259 would tilt momentum to the sellers’ side. Such a move would also suggest that the corrective rally has run its course, as it would represent a failure both above the 38.2% retracement level and below the 200-hour moving average. That would put the market back into a more bearish frame, with sellers eyeing lower levels for a potential retest.
Conversely, if buyers can defend support at the 100-hour moving average and 1.17259 swing area, then the door stays open for another attempt at the 200-hour moving average at 1.17595. Holding above these supports would keep the battle alive and encourage short-term traders to continue testing the topside until a clear break either confirms or negates the upside bias.
For now, the EURUSD sits squarely between its two key moving averages, with 1.1726–1.1730 as pivotal support and 1.1759 as resistance. A break either way is likely to define the next directional push.
