Gold (XAU/USD) attracts fresh buyers near the $3,963-3,692 region at the start of a new week and builds on its steady intraday ascent through the early part of the European session. The move up is sponsored by reviving safe-haven demand, bolstered by comments from US President Donald Trump, suggesting that his administration may restrict the flow of artificial intelligence (AI) hardware to its strategic rival, China. Moreover, concerns about economic risks stemming from a US government shutdown and a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick from its highest level since early August turn out to be other factors undermining the precious metal.
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish tilt forced investors to pare their bets for another rate cut in December. This could act as a tailwind for the USD and cap the non-yielding Gold. Furthermore, a positive risk tone could keep a lid on the XAU/USD pair. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for an extension of the recent bounce from sub-$3,900 levels, or an over three-week low touched last Tuesday. Traders now look to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for a fresh impetus.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold remains supported by reviving safe-haven demand
- US President Donald Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday that Nvidia’s advanced Blackwell chip for artificial intelligence would not be available to other people. This, to some extent, offsets the latest optimism fueled by the de-escalation of trade tensions between the US and China – the world’s two largest economies – and provides a modest lift to the safe-haven Gold at the start of a new week.
- The US government shutdown enters Day 33 on Monday amid a deadlock in Congress on the Republican-backed funding bill. Trump again urged Republican senators to end the shutdown by abolishing the filibuster rule, an unprecedented move that GOP leaders have, so far, resisted. Nevertheless, concerns that a prolonged government closure could cause economic damage further underpin the precious metal.
- The US Federal Reserve lowered borrowing costs by 25 basis points for the second time this year last Wednesday and also said it would stop reducing the size of its balance sheet as soon as December, marking the end of its quantitative tightening. That said, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that another similarly-sized interest rate cut is far from a foregone conclusion at the next monetary policy meeting in December.
- Furthermore, a slew of influential FOMC members further pushed back against expectations for more policy easing by the end of this year. This, in turn, assists the US Dollar to preserve last week’s strong gains and stand firm near its highest level since early August. Apart from this, the upbeat market mood could keep a lid on further appreciation for the non-yielding yellow metal and warrants caution for bullish traders.
- Traders now look forward to Monday’s US economic docket, featuring the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI later during the North American session. Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members will play a key role in driving the USD demand and providing a fresh impetus to the commodity.
Gold technical setup backs case for further gains; $4,045-4,050 holds the key
The XAU/USD pair showed some resilience below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) during the Asian session. Moreover, oscillators on hourly/daily charts have again started gaining positive traction and back the case for additional gains. However, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the $4,045-4,050 hurdle, above which the Gold price could climb to the $4,075 intermediate hurdle before aiming to reclaim the $4,100 mark.
On the flip side, the Asian session low, around the $3,963-3,962 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $3,917-3,916 region and the $3,900 round figure. Some follow-through selling below the $3,886 zone, or an over three-week low touched last Tuesday, could make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the $3,850-3,845 zone en route to the $3,800 mark and the next relevant supports near the $3,765-3,760 zone.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.01% | 0.06% | 0.17% | 0.02% | -0.11% | -0.12% | -0.06% | |
| EUR | -0.01% | 0.06% | 0.12% | 0.00% | -0.13% | -0.12% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.06% | -0.06% | 0.10% | -0.06% | -0.17% | -0.18% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.17% | -0.12% | -0.10% | -0.15% | -0.26% | -0.14% | -0.19% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | -0.01% | 0.06% | 0.15% | -0.16% | -0.13% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.11% | 0.13% | 0.17% | 0.26% | 0.16% | 0.00% | 0.10% | |
| NZD | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.18% | 0.14% | 0.13% | -0.01% | 0.08% | |
| CHF | 0.06% | 0.05% | 0.10% | 0.19% | 0.05% | -0.10% | -0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
