It is no secret if you follow my technical analysis posts how important the 100-hour moving average has been in the EURUSD over the last several sessions. Time and again, buyers stepped in to defend that technical level, treating it as a reliable line in the sand. In fact, during the past three trading days, the market tested and based against the 100-hour MA on five separate occasions, each time finding support and bouncing higher.
However, the sixth attempt proved to be different. This time, buyers could not hold the line. The EURUSD broke below the 100-hour MA at 1.17293, and that failure triggered a wave of selling. Momentum picked up quickly, carrying the price down to a new intraday low of 1.1705. That breakdown signaled a shift in tone, with sellers regaining control after several days of frustration.
Looking ahead, traders now turn their focus toward the next support target at 1.1700. A decisive move through that level would further open the downside, putting pressure on the pair to revisit prior swing lows. The first of those sits at 1.16596, a level tested on both September 11 and September 26. Breaking through that zone would invite a run toward the low from last week at 1.16449, which marks the next critical floor on the chart.
For now, the battle is clear. Staying below the 100-hour MA shifts the bias in favor of the sellers, with momentum suggesting that deeper targets could be in play. Buyers, meanwhile, will need to reclaim the broken moving average to tilt the balance back in their direction. Until then, the market has handed control to the downside.
