The USD is little changed after the weaker than expected non-farm payroll report on Friday (especially the revisions) and the subsequent firing of the BLS commissioner. Who would’ve thought? /S
IN the video above I take a look at the technicals that are driving the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – to kickstart the US session.
In follow-up to last week, Pres. Trump did say that they would announce a new head of BLS the next three or four days. Trump will also be looking to announce a new that Gov. after Adriana Kuglers resignation effective August 8. . NY Fed Pres. William said that he would have an open-mind in regard to a September rate decision.
The week the Bank of England will announce her interest rate decision on Thursday. The market is expecting a 25 basis point cut. After the weaker US jobs report, the initial jobs claims may lead to some additional focus. Recall the initial claims moved up to 250K but then rotated back down toward the lows of recent data near 220K. It doesn’t necessarily support the jobs report released on Friday. The Canadian employment data will be released on Friday. Below summary of the key events this week:
Monday, Aug 4
Tuesday, Aug 5
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USD ISM Services PMI: estimate 51.5 (vs. 50.8 previous)
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NZD Employment Change q/q: estimate -0.1% (vs. 0.1% previous)
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NZD Unemployment Rate: estimate 5.3% (vs. 5.1% previous)
Thursday, Aug 7
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GBP BOE Monetary Policy Report
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GBP Monetary Policy Summary
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GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes: 0–8–1 (vs. 0–3–6 previous)
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estimate GBP Official Bank Rate: estimate 4.00% (vs. 4.25% previous)
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USD Unemployment Claims: estimate 221K (vs. 218K previous)
Friday, Aug 8
Earnings this week:
Monday
Tuesday
- Pfizer, Caterpillar, BP, AMD, Super Micro Computer
Wednesday
Thursday
- Lilly, ConocoPhillips, Twillion
Looking at the US stock market, the major indices are correcting modestly higher after Friday sharp declines
- Dow +177.25 points
- S&P index +30.49 points
- NASDAQ index +161.95 points
in the US debt market, yields are mixed after Friday’s sharp decline:
- 2-year yield 3.691%, -1.2 basis points
- 5year yield 3.765%, -0.5 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.225%, +0.6 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.830%, +2.3 basis points
