The USD is lower vs the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – ahead of the US jobs report.

The expectation is for the jobs shows:

  • Non-farm payroll 130K vs 228K last month
  • Unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.2% last month
  • Average hourly earnings 0.3% vs 0.3% last month
  • Average workweek 34.2 hours vs 34.2 hours last month

Numbers released so far this month:

  • ADP report +62K versus +147K prior (lowest in almost 2 years)
  • ISM services employment not yet released
  • ISM manufacturing employment 46.5 vs 44.7 prior
  • Challenger job cuts 105.44k vs 275.2k prior
  • Philly employment +0.2 vs +19.7 prior
  • Empire employment -2.6 vs -4.1 prior
  • Initial jobless claims survey week 216K vs 225K prior

Seasonals from BMO:

  • In April, the headline beat 57% of the time and missed 43% of the time
  • On unemployment, the rate has been lower than expected 42% of the time, higher 39% of the time and in line 19% of the time

ADP looms large ahead of the report and the recent JOLTS number was soft but the initial jobless claims numbers lately haven’t shown any sign of layoffs, including today’s number which was skewed by New York teachers.

IN the video above, I take a look at the technical drivers for each of the major currency pairs ahead of the report.

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