The USD is lower versus the major currency pairs. In the video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. Each of those foreign currencies are higher versus the USD (the USD is lower).
Today the market will react to US building permits and housing starts along with the University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index (estimate 61.5 versus 60.7 last month). It is also the last day for Fed members to speak ahead of the quiet period in preparation for the July 30 FOMC rate decision
Speaking of which, late yesterday Fed’s Waller spoke and said he still supports a 25bps rate cut in July, citing rising downside risks and weakening labor market conditions. He stressed that the Fed should not wait for job losses to act, warning that delayed easing could require more aggressive cuts later. Waller sees GDP growth near 1% and believes policy should move closer to neutral.
He noted that private hiring is near stall speed, and the labor market is “on the edge.” While tariffs may raise inflation 0.75–1% in the short term, he views them as a temporary shock, with core inflation close to 2% absent the tariff effects. A July cut would give the Fed space to pause for a few meetings, he said.
Waller also said there’s uncertainty around the neutral Fed funds rate, and 3% may still reflect loose conditions. He confirmed no contact with the Trump team about a potential Fed Chair role. On QT, he sees limited interest in selling MBS and expects the balance sheet runoff to remain slow. He also said stablecoins are not a threat but introduce useful competition in payments. Lastly, he emphasized that data should guide the pace of future cuts, and there’s “nothing wrong with an insurance cut.”
The US stock indices are little changed but modestly higher. The S&P closed at its 9th record close yesterday. The Nasdaq also closed at a record and it was its 10th for the year.
- Dow industrial average is up 71 points
- S&P index is up 8.39 points
- NASDAQ index is up 15.96 points
Looking at earnings today::
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Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) Q2 2025: EPS $1.14 (BEAT; exp. $1.09), Revenue $5.85B (BEAT; exp. $5.72B)
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American Express Co (AXP) Q2 2025: EPS $4.08 (BEAT; exp. $3.91), Revenue $17.9B (BEAT; exp. $17.70B)
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3M Co (MMM) Q2 2025: EPS $2.16 (BEAT; exp. $2.01), Revenue $6.3B (MISS; exp. $6.08B)
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Truist Financial Corp (TFC) Q2 2025: EPS $0.91 (MISS; exp. $0.93), Revenue — (exp. $5.02B)
After the close yesterday Netflix reported earnings.
- Netflix Inc (NFLX) Q2 2025: EPS $7.19 (BEAT; exp. $7.05),
- Revenue $11.08B (BEAT; exp. $11.04B)
- Q3 Outlook: EPS $6.87 (BEAT; exp. $6.65), Revenue $11.53B (BEAT; exp. $11.25B)
- FY Outlook: Revenue $44.8B–$45.2B (BEAT; exp. $44.43B),
Despite the be, Netflix shares are lower by 2.15%
US rates are lower across the curve. The 30 year yield is back below the 5.00% after moving up to 5.075% this week.
- 2-year yield 3.877%, -3.9 basis points
- 5-year yield 3.960%, -4.5 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.425%, -3.7 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.985%, -2.9 basis points
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