The USD is mixed but modestly lower against the major pairs, with gains in EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD, while the greenback is firmer vs CHF and flat vs CAD. It is also softer against AUD and NZD, even as US equity futures point lower.
US yields are pushing higher, with the 10-year at 4.29% (near 4.30%) and the 2-year up 7.7 bps to 3.82%, reflecting a more cautious inflation tone from the Fed. The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged, but Chair Powell emphasized inflation risks over employment concerns, reinforcing a higher-for-longer bias.
Focus now shifts to central banks in Europe, with both the BOE and ECB expected to leave rates unchanged later today.
In commodities, WTI crude remains elevated in the mid-to-upper $90s (the low price reached toward $100 – but stayed below), trading between $95.32 and $99.17, as geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf fuel supply concerns. While reports of resumed loadings at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port have eased immediate fears, the broader backdrop remains supportive as markets price in ongoing disruption risk.
The SNB also held rates at 0.00%, but signaled a stronger willingness to intervene in FX markets to curb CHF strength. Inflation was nudged higher to 0.5% for 2026, with growth steady near 1%, leaving intervention—not rate cuts—as the primary policy tool.
On the data front, initial jobless claims are expected at 215K (vs 213K prior), continuing claims at 1.85M, the Philadelphia Fed index at 10.0 (vs 16.3), and new home sales at 0.72M, alongside wholesale inventories (+0.2%).
US stocks are lower in premarket trading
- Dow industrial average -178 points
- S&P index -30.70 point
- NASDAQ index -147 points
Looking at the US yield curve, yields are higher:
- 2-year yield 3.832%, +9.2 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.918%, +5.9 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.296%, +3.9 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.900%, +2.0 basis points
The price of gold continues its run to the downside which also defies expectations given global geopolitical risks and the lower dollar today. The price of gold is down $185 or 3.4% at $4634.
Silver is trading down $5.80 or -7.7% at $69.57. Bitcoin is also lower and back below the $70,000 level at $69,784.
