The USD is modestly higher after sharp gains yesterday. What technical levels are in play?

The USD is little changed against most major currencies to start the U.S. trading session. It is:

Unchanged vs JPY
Up 0.05% vs GBP
Up 0.12% vs CAD
Up 0.14% vs CHF
Up 0.21% vs EUR and AUD
Up 0.25% vs NZD — the largest move on the day

In the video above, I break down the technical outlook for the three major pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — to help guide early U.S. trading.

The greenback extended its gains from Monday, continuing the upward momentum into today’s session. However, we saw some retracement during the European morning.

As we head into U.S. hours, the key question is:
What technical levels will keep dollar bulls in control, and what levels could signal a pause after the early-week surge?

Today the trade talks with China continue in Stockholm with Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR Greer leading the US charge.

Pres. Trump took to Truth Social to “fake news” the talk that he was “SEEKING” a summit with Xi. He is not, but may go to China at the invitation of Xi, which has been extended.

On the economic calendar today,

Advanced goods trade balance the US will be released at 8:30 AM ET with expectations of $-98.20 billion versus -$96.42 billion last month
Wholesale and retail inventories for June will also be released. Wholesale inventories fell -0.3% last month. Retail inventories gained 0.2%.
Case Shiller housing price data for the month of May will be released at 9 AM. The expectations are for -0.2% MoM decline versus -0.3% fall last month. The year on year is expected to rise by 3.0% versus 3.4% last month
US consumer confidence for July released at 10 AM ET with expectations of 95 versus 93 last month
The JOLTS job openings (and other related data) for July will be released at 10 AM ET with expectations of 7.5 million versus 7.769 million last month.

On the earnings front today the following companies reported:

Boeing (BA) Q2 2025: EPS $-1.24 (BEAT: exp. $-1.50). Revenues $22.75 billion (BEAT exp. $22.17B)
Corning Inc (GLW) Q2 2025: Core EPS $0.60 (BEAT; exp. $0.57), Core sales $4.05B (BEAT; exp. $3.85B)
PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) Q2 2025: EPS $1.40 (BEAT; exp. $1.30), Revenue $8.29B (BEAT; exp. $8.11B)
American Tower Corp (AMT) Q2 2025: Revenue $2.62B (BEAT; exp. $2.60B), Adj. EBITDA $1.75B (BEAT; exp. $1.73B)
JetBlue Airways Corp (JBLU) Q2 2025: EPS -$0.21 (BEAT; exp. -$0.32), Revenue $2.35B (BEAT; exp. $2.29B)
Procter & Gamble Co (PG) Q4 2025: Adj. EPS $1.48 (BEAT; exp. $1.42), Revenue $20.89B (BEAT; exp. $20.82B)
Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI) Q3 2025: Adj. EPS $1.05 (BEAT; exp. $1.01), Revenue $6.1B (BEAT; exp. $6.00B)
Merck & Co Inc (MRK) Q2 2025: Adj. EPS $2.13 (BEAT; exp. $2.04), Revenue $15.8B (MET; exp. $15.81B)
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) Q2 2025: Adj. EPS $4.38 (BEAT; exp. $4.09), Revenue $4.54B (MET; exp. $4.54B)
Carrier Global Corp (CARR) Q2 2025: EPS $0.92 (BEAT; exp. $0.90), Revenue $6.11B (MET; exp. $6.09B)
Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) Q2 2025: EPS -$0.42 (BEAT; exp. -$1.99), Revenue $4.19B (MISS; exp. $4.27B)
United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Q2 2025: Adj. EPS $1.55 (MET; exp. $1.55), Revenue $21.2B (MISS; exp. $20.86B)
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Q2 2025: Adj. EPS $4.08 (MISS; exp. $4.61), Revenue $111.6B (BEAT; exp. $111.36B)