The USD is stretching higher as the S&P global and the existing home sales beat expectations. That has lessened the chance of a September rate cut to 75%. Recall last week it was as high as 100%. Fed Chair Powell will speak tomorrow at 10 AM. Although September data is going to be key ahead of the rate decision mid-month, at this moment, it is hard to justify Powell being anything other than data -dependent despite the pressure to cut rates and the weaker jobs report. He may tilt because of a more dual focus, but to go all-in for a cut is not likely.
EURUSD Technical Update: The 50% retracement is the downside target at 1.16098.
The EURUSD has pushed to a fresh low, moving into the swing area between 1.16098 and 1.16309. Yesterday’s low traded within this zone, while last Thursday’s decline stalled right at its upper boundary. Importantly, the 50% midpoint of the broader move down from the July 1 high to the August 1 low comes in at 1.16098—a critical level at the base of this swing area.
On the topside, today’s European session high stalled just below a confluence of resistance: the 61.8% retracement at 1.1661 and the 100- and 200-hour moving averages clustered just above at 1.1664. The failure to break above this zone handed the technical edge back to sellers.
The question now is whether sellers can press momentum further with a decisive move below the 50% midpoint at 1.16098. A break would signal growing downside control and open the door for deeper retracement targets.
GBPUSD Technical Update: Focus turns to the 100 day MA
The GBPUSD extended to a swing area near 1.3436 earlier in the day, and then bounced higher taken the price back above the 50% midpoint of the move down from the July 1 high at 1.3463. The high price reached 1.3481 Before rotating back down with more momentum in the early US session off of the better data. The low price of just reached 1.3423
The next key targeted is fast approaching at the rising 100 day moving average at 1.34078 (see overlay blue line on the chart above).
USDJPY Technical: Extends into swing area resistance
The USDJPY fell yesterday but has rebounded firmly today, reclaiming key technical levels. The recovery took the pair back above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, which currently straddle the 147.50 area.
The initial upside extension reached into the lower boundary of a swing area between 147.95 and 148.166 before sellers stepped in. That pullback saw the pair retest the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, but buyers defended the zone and reestablished control.
Stronger-than-expected data has since fueled a fresh push higher, with price action extending deeper into the swing area. Notably, over the last seven trading sessions, the USDJPY has tested this area on four separate occasions, underscoring its importance as a technical pivot.
A decisive break above 148.166 would be a key bullish development, opening the door for further upside momentum in the days ahead.
