The USD is lower vs most of the major currencies to start the US session. THe declines are led by the USDJPY which sees the greenback down -0.53%. The pair moved back below the 100 hour MA at 148.819 but found support at the 200 day MA. The price trades between those two technical levels.
The EURUSD is showing a gain of about 0.11% (decline of the USD). The pair moved up to test its falling 100 hour mA and swing area and found willing sellers.
The GBPUSD continued the retracement higher but did find willing sellers within a swing area between 1.3445 and 1.3467.
ECB’s Makhlouf told the Financial Times that the central bank is “near the bottom” of its easing cycle, while stressing that policy is not on a predetermined path and uncertainty remains high. He expressed satisfaction with the current stance but cautioned against assuming clarity on the future trajectory. His remarks, though not introducing anything new, signal openness to the possibility of further cuts, placing him in the neutral-to-dovish minority within the ECB.
Fed’s Hammack described the current environment as a difficult period for monetary policy, noting that while the labor market is broadly balanced, tariffs are likely to have more lasting effects than initially expected. He emphasized the need to maintain a restrictive stance, pointing out that current policy is only mildly restrictive and close to neutral. Hammack forecast that inflation will stay above target for the next one to two years, with the Fed unlikely to achieve its 2% goal until late 2027 or early 2028.
The Swiss National Bank announced it will lower the threshold factor for remunerating sight deposits from 18 to 16.5 starting November 1st. This move, which had been speculated before last week’s meeting, effectively increases the portion of bank holdings subject to charges at the higher level. The change is expected to make holding excess CHF at the SNB less attractive, encouraging banks to reduce such deposits, which could in turn put downward pressure on the Swiss franc.
BOJ policymaker Asahi Noguchi said Japan is steadily progressing toward its 2% inflation target, making the case for potential policy adjustments stronger than before. While he acknowledged ongoing downside risks, he noted that upside risks to prices have grown more significant, pointing to a structural shift in firms’ price- and wage-setting behavior. Noguchi added that services price rigidity is weakening and could spread to smaller firms. His comments, slightly hawkish compared to his usually dovish stan
Fed Speakers today include:
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1730 GMT / 1330 ET – Fed’s John Williams (NY Fed President) participates in a conversation organized by the Rochester Institute of Technology.
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1730 GMT / 1330 ET – Fed’s Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed President) speaks at “The Past, Present and Future of the Federal Reserve” with former St. Louis Fed presidents James Bullard and Thomas Melzer, in St. Louis.
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2200 GMT / 1800 ET – Fed’s Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed President) moderates a conversation with Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian on Atlanta’s economy, air travel, and leadership as part of the Atlanta Fed Leading Voices Series.
US stock indices are higher in premarket trading led by the NASDAQ index:
- S&P index up 32.55 points
- Dow industrial average up 170.71 points
- NASDAQ index up 156 points.
In the US debt market, yields are lower:
- 2-year yield 3.630%, -1.6 basis points.
- 5 year yield 3.746%, -2.4 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.152%, -3.5 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.720% current ones 4.5 basis points
US pending home sales will be released at 10 AM with expectations of 0.3% versus -0.4% last month. The Dow’s Fed manufacturing business index for September will be released at 10:30 AM ET. Last month he came in at -1.80.
