We are now into Day 2 of fully open trading since the war in Iran began, and the tone remains decisively risk-off.

US equities are under heavy pressure:

  • Nasdaq: -474 points

  • S&P 500: -103 points

  • Dow: -719 points

At the same time, classic defensive flows are in play:

The dollar is up roughly 0.65% versus the EUR and GBP, and about 0.25% versus the JPY, reinforcing the broader flight-to-safety bid.

In the video above, Greg Michalowski walks through the technical outlook for the three major pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — focusing on the key levels that will determine whether sellers extend control or buyers can stabilize the move.

EURUSD – Testing the yearly lows

The EURUSD extended lower today and came within seven pips of the 2026 low (1.15764 from mid-January). That proximity alone keeps the downside pressure firmly intact.

Although the pair has bounced modestly, it remains below short-term resistance levels. To shift the bias even modestly back toward the buyers, the pair needs to reclaim a key upside target outlined in the video. Until that happens, this remains a trend-like move lower, and rallies are corrective rather than structural.

The burden of proof is clearly on the buyers.

USDJPY – Momentum stalls near channel resistance

USDJPY pushed to a new high going back to January 23, but the upside momentum has begun to stall.

  • The pair failed ahead of a topside hourly channel trendline near 158.23

  • Today’s high reached 157.96

  • Price has since slipped back below the February high at 157.65

That 157.65 level is now a key short-term barometer. The pair is currently hovering just above it as North America gets underway.

Holding above keeps buyers in control.

A sustained move back below would signal fading upside momentum and give sellers a foothold.

GBPUSD – Breakdown and rebound battle

The GBPUSD saw the most aggressive technical damage.

  • Broke below yesterday’s low

  • Broke below the December 17 swing low at 1.33106

  • Broke below the December 9 low at 1.32867

  • Touched a session low at 1.3263

That sequence represents a clear downside extension.

However, the pair has since rebounded and now trades near 1.33117, testing:

Just above sits the 50% midpoint of the day’s range at 1.3343.

This 1.3324–1.3343 area is the immediate battleground. If buyers can reclaim that zone, short-term control shifts modestly higher. If sellers defend it, the broader downside bias remains firmly intact.

Bottom Line

Markets remain in risk-off mode:

  • Stocks lower

  • Oil sharply higher

  • Yields rising

  • Dollar broadly stronger

From a technical perspective, all three major currency pairs are trading at or near pivotal levels. The next few hours will determine whether today becomes stabilization… or continuation.

In environments like this, levels matter more than opinions.



Source link