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Whoops… the market did it again in the EURUSD. For the fourth time in a row, the pair has found support against its 100-hour moving average at 1.1715. Earlier today, the low price stalled at that level, just as it did yesterday when the pair based against it before bouncing – confirming it as a reliable floor where buyers are willing to step in. Until proven otherwise, that average remains the line traders lean against on dips. A decisive break below, however, would shift momentum and likely trigger a deeper move to the downside.
On the topside, the 200-hour moving average at 1.17414 (green line on the chart) has been far less cooperative. Over the past two sessions, price has repeatedly traded above and below it without much conviction, leaving traders wary of its reliability as a guidepost. That said, there was at least one instance today where the first break higher above the 200-hour did find willing buyers. The rally carried the pair up toward the 50% midpoint of the September decline at 1.17814, only for momentum to fade and sending the EURUSD back down toward its 100-hour MA base.
So what does the price action tell us?
As long as price continues to hold above the 100-hour moving average at 1.1715, the buyers retain the upper hand. To build on that advantage, they would still need to push back above the 200-hour moving average and then the 38.2% retracement at 1.1749, which would re-establish near-term upside momentum. Beyond that, the 50% midpoint at 1.17814 remains the next major target that buyers need to break — and more importantly, to stay above — if the bullish case is to strengthen further.
Until then, the market remains in a tug-of-war, with the 100-hour MA acting as the dependable floor and the topside levels defining the barriers to a more sustained recovery.
