AUDJPY Daily Outlook, 01 April 2026: AUDJPY Forecast & Levels

AUDJPY Multi-Timeframe ICT & SMC Analysis (Intraday Trading Plan)

This breakdown delivers a precision-focused Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT-based analysis of AUDJPY using the Daily, 4H, 1H, 15M, and 5M charts. The goal is to align higher timeframe bias with intraday execution and map high-probability setups, including sniper entry models (1:10–1:15 RR).

🔷 Daily Timeframe – Macro Context

Market Structure Overview

The daily chart shows a strong bullish expansion phase transitioning into distribution:

• Series of clean BOS (Break of Structure) confirming bullish trend
• Price has aggressively moved from ~102.00 → 113.00
• Currently reacting from a major buy-side liquidity pool (equal highs / weak highs)

Key Observations

• Price tapped into premium zone (112.50–113.50)
• Strong rejection indicates:
  • Liquidity grab completed
  • Potential macro pullback phase beginning
• Inefficiencies (FVGs) remain unfilled below:
  • 109.00 – 107.00 zone
  • 104.00 zone (deeper draw)

Bias

➡️ Short-term bearish retracement inside bullish macro trend
➡️ Draw on liquidity = sell-side (downside inefficiencies)

🔶 4H Timeframe – Structural Transition

Key Structural Shift

• Clear CHOCH (Change of Character) from bullish → bearish
• Lower high formed near 113.00 supply
• Multiple bearish impulsive legs

Institutional Zones

• Premium Supply: 112.00 – 113.20
• Intermediate Supply: 110.80 – 111.20
• Demand Zones:
  • 109.50 – 109.80 (minor)
  • 108.00 – 108.80 (strong)
  • 106.50 – 107.20 (HTF demand)

Interpretation

• Market is in retracement/distribution phase
• Upside moves = liquidity engineering (sell setups)

🔬 1H Timeframe – Intraday Bias

Structure

• Strong bearish displacement from highs
• Continuous formation of:
  • Lower highs
  • Lower lows
• Recent bullish move = corrective pullback

Current Price Location

• Price trading near 110.00–110.20
• Sitting just below intraday supply zone

Key Signals

• CHOCH followed by BOS confirms:
  • bearish continuation bias
• Internal liquidity being built above recent highs

🔍 15M Timeframe – Execution Context

Observations

• Clean intraday bearish trend structure
• Multiple FVGs left during sell-offs
• Current move:
  • Bullish retracement into inefficiency

Key Insight

➡️ This is a classic ICT “sell the retracement” environment

⚡ 5M Timeframe – Precision Entry Layer

Current Price Behavior

• Formation of:
  • Equal highs (EQH)
  • Minor liquidity pools
• Price pushing into short-term premium zone

This aligns perfectly with:

➡️ Liquidity sweep → reversal → continuation lower

🎯 High-Probability Trade Setups

🔴 Scenario 1: Premium Sell Setup (Primary Bias)

Narrative

• Market is retracing into supply
• Smart money likely to:
  • Sweep buy-side liquidity
  • Enter short positions

Sniper Entry Model (1:10–1:15 RR)

Execution Framework

1. Liquidity Sweep
   • Price runs above:
     • 110.20 → 110.60
   • Forms wick or inducement
2. 5M CHOCH
   • Break of internal higher low
3. Displacement
   • Strong bearish candle
   • Leaves FVG
4. Entry
   • At:
     • 50% FVG
     • Bearish order block

Trade Parameters

• Entry Zone: 110.20 – 110.80
• Stop Loss: 111.20
• Targets:
  • TP1: 109.50
  • TP2: 108.80
  • TP3: 108.00

RR Potential

• Conservative: 1:6–1:8
• Sniper execution: 1:10–1:15

Confluence Factors

• HTF premium zone
• 4H supply
• 1H bearish structure
• Liquidity inducement

🟢 Scenario 2: Discount Buy Setup (Counter-Trend)

Narrative

If price aggressively sells into demand:

• Targets sell-side liquidity
• Enters HTF discount zone

This creates opportunity for:

➡️ Short-term bullish reversal

Sniper Entry Model

1. Sell-side liquidity sweep
   • Below 109.00 or 108.80
2. Bullish CHOCH (5M/15M)
3. Strong displacement candle
4. FVG retracement entry

Trade Parameters

• Entry Zone: 108.00 – 108.80
• Stop Loss: Below 107.50
• Targets:
  • TP1: 109.80
  • TP2: 110.50
  • TP3: 111.00

RR Profile

• 1:8 to 1:12 RR

🔵 Scenario 3: Breaker Block Continuation

Narrative

If bearish momentum strengthens:

• Demand fails
• Turns into breaker block

Execution

• Wait for:
  • Retest of 109.50–109.80
• Enter short on rejection

Targets

• 108.80
• 108.00
• 107.20

⏱️ ICT Kill Zones (Timing Precision)

Best Execution Windows

• London Kill Zone:
  08:00 – 10:00 London
• New York Kill Zone:
  13:30 – 15:30 London

Why These Matter

• High liquidity injections
• Stop hunts
• Institutional entries

🔬 Candle-Level Sniper Models

🔴 Bearish Entry (Ideal)

1. Price sweeps 110.60 highs
2. Forms rejection wick
3. Next candle:
   • Breaks previous low → CHOCH
4. Strong bearish displacement
5. FVG forms

➡️ Entry: 50% of FVG
➡️ Stop: Above wick
➡️ Target: Liquidity below

🟢 Bullish Entry (Reversal)

1. Price sweeps 108.80 lows
2. Strong bullish engulfing candle
3. BOS confirmation
4. Entry at FVG retrace

⚖️ Risk Management

• Risk per trade: 0.5%–1%
• Avoid:
  • Mid-range entries
  • No-liquidity setups
• Focus on:
  • Structure
  • Timing
  • Liquidity

🧠 Execution Philosophy

• Trade after liquidity events, not before
• Let market confirm intent
• Avoid emotional entries
• Precision > frequency

📌 Final Intraday Outlook

• Short-Term Bias: Bearish below 111.00
• Primary Play: Sell from premium (110.20–110.80)
• Secondary Play: Buy from discount (108.00–108.80)

The market is currently in a corrective phase, offering high-quality intraday opportunities on both sides—provided entries are aligned with liquidity and structure.