AUDJPY Daily Outlook, 02 April 2026: AUDJPY Forecast & Levels

AUDJPY Daily Outlook – Multi-Timeframe ICT & SMC Analysis (Intraday Trading Plan)

AUDJPY is currently positioned in a short-term bearish correction within a broader higher timeframe bullish structure. The recent impulsive downside move reflects a clear shift in order flow, with multiple breaks of structure and displacement moves indicating institutional selling pressure. However, price is now approaching a discount zone, where smart money may begin re-accumulation.

This analysis integrates Daily, 4H, 1H, 15M, and 5M charts using ICT and Smart Money Concepts to identify high-probability setups for today.

Daily Timeframe (Macro Structure)

Key Observations:

• Overall structure remains bullish:
  • Series of higher highs and higher lows
  • Strong bullish expansion from October lows
• Recent price action:
  • Rejection from 113.00 – 113.50 (major supply / weak high)
  • Beginning of a corrective pullback

Institutional Narrative:

• Smart money likely:
  • Distributed longs near 113.00
  • Now driving price into discount to rebalance inefficiencies

Key Levels:

• Daily Supply: 112.50 – 113.50
• Current Range Midpoint: ~110.00
• Daily Demand: 108.00 – 109.00

Bias:

• Bullish HTF
• Bearish short-term retracement

4H Timeframe (Swing Context)

Key Observations:

• Clear bearish CHoCH after failure to hold highs
• Strong displacement to the downside → confirms institutional selling
• Price trading below multiple structure points

Smart Money Insight:

• This is a textbook:
  • Sell-side delivery phase
• Likely objective:
  • Target sell-side liquidity below recent lows

Key Zones:

• 4H Supply: 110.80 – 111.50
• 4H Mitigation Zone: 110.20 – 110.50
• 4H Demand: 108.80 – 109.20

Bias:

• Bearish intraday/swing
• Expect continuation lower before reversal

1H Timeframe (Refined Structure)

Key Observations:

• Consistent:
  • Lower highs
  • Lower lows
• Strong bearish BOS confirms trend shift
• Minor pullbacks are weak → indicating seller dominance

Current Context:

• Price is:
  • Retracing after hitting short-term sell-side liquidity
  • Moving into lower timeframe premium

Key Levels:

• 1H Supply: 109.80 – 110.20
• 1H Resistance: 109.60 – 109.80
• 1H Demand: 109.00 – 109.20

Bias:

• Sell on rallies (premium zones)

15M Timeframe (Intraday Flow)

Key Observations:

• Strong bearish leg followed by:
  • Gradual bullish retracement
• Internal liquidity created:
  • Equal highs around 109.60–109.80
• Sell-side liquidity already partially taken

Liquidity Map:

• Buy-side liquidity: 109.80 / 110.00
• Sell-side liquidity: 109.20 / 109.00

Key Zones:

• Intraday Supply: 109.70 – 110.00
• Intraday Demand: 109.00 – 109.30

Bias:

• Expect:
  • Retracement into supply → continuation lower

5M Timeframe (Execution Model)

Key Observations:

• Sharp bullish retracement from lows
• Price approaching:
  • Intraday supply zone
• Early signs of:
  • Weak bullish momentum
  • Potential distribution

Ideal Entry Model:

• Buy-side liquidity sweep
• Bearish CHoCH
• Displacement → FVG entry

Trade Setups for Today

🔴 Setup 1: Intraday Reversal Sell (Primary Setup)

Narrative:

Market is in a bearish phase; current move is a retracement into supply.

Entry Zone:

• 109.70 – 110.00

Confirmation (5M / 15M):

1. Sweep of equal highs
2. Bearish CHoCH
3. Strong bearish displacement
4. Entry on FVG retracement

Stop Loss:

• Above 110.30

Take Profit Targets:

• TP1: 109.20
• TP2: 109.00
• TP3: 108.80

RR Potential:

• 1:4 to 1:8

🔵 Setup 2: Counter-Trend Buy from Discount

Narrative:

Higher timeframe remains bullish → look for reversal at discount.

Entry Zone:

• 109.00 – 109.20

Confirmation:

• Sell-side liquidity sweep
• Bullish CHoCH
• Strong displacement

Stop Loss:

• Below 108.70

Targets:

• 109.80
• 110.20

⚡ Setup 3: Continuation Sell Breakdown

Narrative:

If price fails to retrace and breaks lower.

Entry:

• Sell below 109.20 breakdown

Confirmation:

• Strong bearish candle close
• No immediate rejection

Stop Loss:

• Above 109.80

Targets:

• 108.80
• 108.50

Liquidity & Order Flow Analysis

Buy-Side Liquidity:

• 109.80 equal highs
• 110.00 psychological level

Sell-Side Liquidity:

• 109.20
• 109.00
• 108.80

Expected Smart Money Behavior:

• Induce buyers during retracement
• Sweep highs
• Deliver price lower into discount

ICT Concepts Applied

• CHoCH: Signals intraday reversal points
• BOS: Confirms trend continuation
• Liquidity Sweeps: Entry triggers
• Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Precision entries
• Premium/Discount Logic:
  • Sell in premium
  • Buy in discount

Session-Based Expectations

Asian Session:

• Already delivered:
  • Retracement phase
• Likely:
  • Range or slow continuation

London Session:

• High probability:
  • Liquidity sweep above highs
  • Reversal setup

New York Session:

• Expansion move:
  • Bearish continuation toward 109.00

Risk Management Guidelines

• Wait for confirmation:
  • Avoid blind entries
• Focus on:
  • Liquidity + structure alignment
• Risk per trade:
  • 1–2% max
• Avoid:
  • Trading mid-range consolidation

Final Outlook

AUDJPY is currently undergoing a healthy bearish correction within a larger bullish trend. The market is likely to:

• Complete retracement into 109.70 – 110.00 supply
• Then expand lower toward 109.00 and below

After reaching discount:

• Look for re-accumulation and continuation higher

Execution Summary

• Primary Trade:
  👉 Sell from 109.70 – 110.00 (after confirmation)
• Secondary Trade:
  👉 Buy from 109.00 zone (after liquidity sweep)
• Targets:
  • Downside: 109.20 → 108.80
  • Upside: 109.80 → 110.20