AUDJPY Daily Outlook – Multi-Timeframe ICT & SMC Analysis – Intraday Trading Plan
AUDJPY is currently trading within a structurally bullish environment on the higher timeframes, but price has recently tapped into a premium zone where signs of short-term distribution are beginning to emerge. The market has already engineered liquidity above recent highs, suggesting a potential intraday retracement before any continuation.
This analysis applies ICT (Inner Circle Trader) and Smart Money Concepts (SMC) to decode institutional order flow, identify liquidity pools, and define high-probability trading setups across all key timeframes.
Daily Timeframe Overview
Market Structure Context
The daily chart reflects a strong bullish trend:
- Clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows
- Consistent BOS (Break of Structure) confirming trend continuation
- Strong displacement legs with minimal corrective phases
Key Observations
- Price recently tapped into a daily supply / resistance zone near 111.00–111.30
- A weak high is forming at the top, indicating liquidity has likely been taken
- Market is currently in a premium pricing zone
ICT Framework
- Premium Zone: 110.50 – 111.30
- Discount Zone: 107.00 – 109.00
Daily Bias
- Bullish overall
- Short-term: Retracement likely from premium
4-Hour Timeframe Analysis
Structure & Order Flow
The 4H timeframe shows:
- Strong bullish expansion from 109.00 region
- Clean internal pullbacks respecting demand zones
- Current price interacting with 4H supply (~111.00)
Key Zones
- Supply Zone: 110.90 – 111.30
- Demand Zone: 109.80 – 110.20
- Deep Demand: 108.80 – 109.30
Observations
- Price has reached premium extremes
- Slight hesitation and rejection signals visible
- Potential for internal retracement before continuation
4H Bias
- Short-term bearish (corrective phase)
- Medium-term remains bullish
1-Hour Timeframe Analysis
Internal Market Structure
The 1H chart provides a clearer look into intraday flow:
- Bullish structure intact but weakening near highs
- Formation of equal highs (EQH) just below 111.00
- Early signs of CHoCH (Change of Character) forming
Key Levels
- Sell Zone: 110.90 – 111.20
- Buy Zone: 110.20 – 110.50
ICT Concepts
- Liquidity engineered above highs
- Potential inducement below 110.50
1H Bias
- Neutral → Bearish (short-term)
- Bullish continuation possible after retracement
15-Minute Timeframe Analysis
Intraday Price Action
The 15M chart reveals classic ICT session behavior:
- Asia session: accumulation
- London session: expansion and liquidity sweep
- New York session: continuation with volatility
Key Observations
- Buy-side liquidity taken above NYAM high
- Immediate rejection suggests smart money distribution
- Price consolidating near premium
Key Zones
- Sell Zone: 110.90 – 111.10
- Buy Zone: 110.30 – 110.60
15M Bias
- Bearish retracement likely
- Long setups valid only after deeper pullback
5-Minute Timeframe Analysis
Execution-Level Insights
The 5M chart shows:
- Clean liquidity sweep above 111.00
- Sharp rejection candle confirming sell-side intent
- Micro CHoCH confirming short-term bearish shift
Entry Triggers
- Liquidity sweep
- Displacement move
- Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Key Execution Zones
- Sell Entry: 110.90 – 111.10
- Buy Entry: 110.30 – 110.50
Intraday Trading Setups (ICT Models)
Setup 1: Bearish Reversal from Premium (Primary Scenario)
Narrative:
Price has swept buy-side liquidity above recent highs and is reacting from higher timeframe supply. This aligns with ICT’s model of distribution in premium.
Entry Model:
- Wait for:
- Sweep above 111.00
- Rejection inside supply
- Confirmation:
- Bearish CHoCH on 5M/15M
- Displacement + FVG
Entry Zone:
- 110.90 – 111.10
Stop Loss:
- Above 111.30
Targets:
- TP1: 110.60
- TP2: 110.30
- TP3: 109.80
RR Potential:
- 1:4 to 1:8
Setup 2: Bullish Continuation After Retracement (Secondary Scenario)
Narrative:
Higher timeframe trend remains bullish. After a corrective move, smart money may re-enter at discount levels.
Entry Model:
- Wait for:
- Sweep below 110.30
- Reaction from demand
- Confirmation:
- Bullish CHoCH
- Displacement + FVG
Entry Zone:
- 110.20 – 110.40
Stop Loss:
- Below 109.80
Targets:
- TP1: 111.00
- TP2: 111.50
- TP3: 112.00
RR Potential:
- 1:3 to 1:6
Setup 3: Intraday Range Scalping
If price consolidates:
- Sell near 111.00 highs
- Buy near 110.30 lows
Liquidity Mapping
Buy-Side Liquidity
- 111.00 – 111.30 (equal highs / weak highs)
- 112.00 (psychological level)
Sell-Side Liquidity
- 110.30 (intraday lows)
- 109.80 (4H demand)
- 109.00 (major liquidity pool)
Draw on Liquidity
- Short-term: Downward (retracement)
- Mid-term: Upward continuation
ICT Killzones & Session Behavior
Asian Session
- Range formation
- Liquidity accumulation
London Session
- Expansion and manipulation
- Liquidity sweep
New York Session
- Confirmation phase
- Ideal execution window
Confluence Factors
- AUD strength/weakness (commodities, China data)
- JPY macro (BOJ policy stance)
- Risk sentiment (equities correlation)
- Interest rate differentials
Final Trading Outlook
AUDJPY is currently positioned at a premium supply zone, where short-term distribution is likely:
- Daily: Bullish
- 4H: At resistance
- 1H: Weakening structure
- 15M/5M: Bearish signals emerging
Strategic Approach
- Sell at premium for intraday retracement
- Buy at discount for continuation
- Avoid entries in equilibrium zones
Best Trade Idea Today
- Primary: Sell 110.90 – 111.10
- Secondary: Buy 110.20 – 110.40
Key Takeaway
AUDJPY is exhibiting classic ICT behavior:
- Liquidity engineered above highs
- Smart money distributing in premium
- Expected retracement before continuation
Execution should focus on:
- Liquidity sweeps
- CHoCH/BOS confirmation
- Premium vs discount precision
