EURUSD Multi-Timeframe ICT & SMC Analysis (Intraday Trading Plan)
News context: Ahead of fresh macro catalysts and shifting dollar sentiment, EURUSD remains in focus for traders watching directional continuation and liquidity reactions.
EURUSD is currently transitioning from a broader consolidation range into a short-term bullish expansion phase. However, price is now approaching key higher timeframe liquidity and premium zones, making this a critical decision point between continuation and reversal. Using ICT and Smart Money Concepts (SMC), we can map both directional bias and precise execution opportunities.
Daily Timeframe Bias
On the daily chart, EURUSD remains range-bound between:
- High: ~1.2100 (strong high / buy-side liquidity)
- Low: ~1.1300 (major sell-side liquidity)
Recent developments:
- Price swept relative equal lows (~1.1450) and reacted strongly
- Formed a bullish displacement, reclaiming internal structure
- Currently trading near 1.1700–1.1750, approaching intermediate resistance
Key insights:
- Market is still inside a macro range
- Current move appears to be a retracement toward premium
Bias: Short-term bullish, but approaching daily premium → potential sell zone above
4H Timeframe Structure
The 4H chart confirms a bullish market shift:
- Clear Change of Character (ChoCH) from bearish to bullish
- Strong impulsive move from 1.1450 demand zone
- Multiple BOS formations to the upside
Key zones:
- Demand (Mitigation Block): 1.1500 – 1.1550
- Current price: testing 1.1700 – 1.1750
- Supply above: 1.1800 – 1.1850
Notable observations:
- Price is forming weak highs around 1.1739
- Suggests buy-side liquidity resting above
Narrative: Smart money may push price slightly higher to engineer liquidity before distributing
1H Timeframe Insight
The 1H timeframe shows:
- Sustained bullish structure (higher highs & higher lows)
- Clean BOS above 1.1650
- Price currently consolidating below 1.1740 (weak high)
Important structure points:
- Internal pullbacks are shallow → strong bullish momentum
- However, no major retracement yet → inefficient delivery
Key Insight: Market is overextended intraday, increasing probability of:
- Either a liquidity sweep above highs → reversal
- Or a deeper pullback into discount before continuation
15M Timeframe (Execution Framework)
The 15M chart provides clarity on intraday liquidity:
- Price swept NYAM high (~1.1739) → indicating buy-side liquidity
- Immediate rejection forming a lower high
- Early signs of bearish ChoCH
Key zones:
- Sell zone (premium): 1.1725 – 1.1745
- Intraday demand: 1.1675 – 1.1690
- Liquidity below: 1.1650
This suggests a classic ICT pattern:
➡️ Buy-side liquidity sweep → displacement → reversal potential
5M Timeframe (Sniper Entry Model)
The 5M chart confirms execution-level precision:
- Clear session-based manipulation (Asia → London → NY)
- NY session swept highs and failed to continue
- Bearish ChoCH + displacement candle present
🔴 Primary Trade Idea: Short Setup
Model:
Liquidity Sweep (NYAM high) + 5M ChoCH + FVG retracement
Entry Zone:
- 1.1720 – 1.1740
Stop Loss:
- Above 1.1750 (above liquidity pool)
Targets:
- TP1: 1.1690 (intraday support)
- TP2: 1.1675 (demand zone)
- TP3: 1.1650 (sell-side liquidity)
RR Potential: 1:8 to 1:12
🟢 Secondary Trade Idea: Continuation Long
If price invalidates bearish setup and holds above highs:
Model:
Break of structure + bullish continuation after pullback
Entry Zone:
- 1.1690 – 1.1705 (discount pullback)
Stop Loss:
- Below 1.1670
Targets:
- TP1: 1.1750
- TP2: 1.1800
- TP3: 1.1850
Note: Requires strong bullish displacement confirmation
ICT Concepts Applied
1. Liquidity Engineering
- Equal highs at 1.1739 → swept
- Sell-side liquidity resting below 1.1670
2. Premium vs Discount
- Current price in premium → sell bias
- Optimal buys only from discount zones
3. Market Structure
- HTF: Range-bound
- MTF: Bullish
- LTF: Early bearish shift
4. Imbalances (FVGs)
- 5M bearish FVG offers precise entries
- 15M inefficiency likely to be filled
Session-Based Trading Plan
London Session Behavior
- Expansion phase completed
- Liquidity engineered above highs
New York Session Expectation
- Likely continuation lower OR
- Final liquidity sweep before reversal
High-Probability Execution Plan
Scenario 1 (Preferred)
- Price trades into 1.1730–1.1740
- Forms:
- Rejection wick
- Bearish displacement
- 5M FVG
➡️ Enter short targeting sell-side liquidity
Scenario 2 (Alternative)
- Price drops into 1.1680–1.1690
- Forms bullish ChoCH
➡️ Enter long for continuation
Risk Management Guidelines
- Avoid entries in mid-range (1.1700–1.1715)
- Focus only on:
- Liquidity zones
- Confirmed structure shifts
- Scale partials:
- Secure profits at 1:3
- Let runner target 1:10+
Key Levels Summary
- Sell Zone: 1.1725 – 1.1745
- Buy Zone: 1.1675 – 1.1690
- Invalidation (Shorts): Above 1.1750
- Invalidation (Longs): Below 1.1670
Final Outlook
EURUSD is currently at a critical intraday inflection point, where higher timeframe bullish retracement meets lower timeframe distribution signals.
While the broader move remains bullish from recent lows, the presence of:
- Weak highs
- Liquidity sweep
- Lower timeframe ChoCH
suggests increased probability of a short-term bearish retracement toward 1.1650–1.1670 before any further upside continuation.
The highest-probability trade today lies in:
➡️ Selling engineered liquidity at highs and targeting internal sell-side liquidity
Precision around session highs and disciplined confirmation-based entries will be key to extracting high RR opportunities.
Related Forex Analysis
Compare with eurusd previous outlook, EURUSD weekly outlook, gold daily outlook, and USDCHF daily outlook.
