EURUSD Multi-Timeframe ICT & SMC Analysis (Intraday Trading Plan)

News context: Ahead of fresh macro catalysts and shifting dollar sentiment, EURUSD remains in focus for traders watching directional continuation and liquidity reactions.

Daily Timeframe Overview

The daily timeframe provides the macro narrative and directional bias using ICT and Smart Money Concepts.

EURUSD has recently transitioned from a bullish phase into a clear bearish corrective structure. After a strong expansion toward the 1.20–1.21 region, price failed to sustain higher levels and delivered a decisive bearish move, forming a Change of Character (CHoCH) followed by continued downside pressure.

Key Observations:

  • Buy-Side Liquidity Sweep: Highs above 1.20 have been taken, indicating smart money distribution.
  • Market Structure Shift: Lower highs and lower lows are now forming.
  • Major Daily Demand Zone:
    • 1.1300–1.1350 → strong institutional support
  • Current Price (~1.1520): Trading below mid-range equilibrium, favoring bearish continuation.

ICT Perspective:

  • Price is currently trading in a premium zone relative to the recent bearish leg, making it attractive for sell setups.
  • Daily bias remains bearish unless price reclaims 1.18–1.20 region.

4-Hour Timeframe Analysis

The 4H chart refines the broader bearish bias and highlights key institutional levels.

Structure:

  • Clear bearish BOS (Break of Structure) followed by continuation.
  • Price is forming lower highs, confirming bearish order flow.
  • Recent bullish retracement appears corrective rather than impulsive.

Key Zones:

  • Supply Zones (Sell Areas):
    • 1.1600–1.1650 → strong 4H order block
    • 1.1750–1.1800 → higher timeframe supply
  • Demand Zones (Buy Areas):
    • 1.1450–1.1480 → short-term reaction zone
    • 1.1300–1.1350 → daily demand

ICT Concepts:

  • Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Price is respecting inefficiencies on pullbacks.
  • Liquidity Targets: Sell-side liquidity below 1.1450 remains a key draw.

Bias:

  • Expect retracements into supply → continuation lower
  • Overall structure remains bearish

1-Hour Timeframe Analysis

The 1H timeframe shows intraday transitions and potential execution areas.

Structure:

  • Multiple CHoCH formations, reflecting internal corrections.
  • Recent bullish movement lacks follow-through → indicates weak buying pressure.
  • Price continues to respect lower highs.

Key Zones:

  • Intraday Supply:
    • 1.1550–1.1600
  • Intraday Demand:
    • 1.1480–1.1500

Insights:

  • Recent highs form equal highs (EQH) → potential liquidity pool.
  • Likely scenario: Liquidity sweep above highs → bearish continuation

Trading Logic:

  • Look for short opportunities after inducement above 1.1550
  • Avoid buying into premium zones

15-Minute Timeframe Analysis

The 15M timeframe provides refined entry confirmation using ICT models.

Structure:

  • Clear bearish BOS followed by continuation
  • Consistent formation of lower highs and lower lows
  • Internal liquidity being engineered before moves

Key Levels:

  • Sell Zone: 1.1550–1.1570
  • Buy Zone: 1.1500–1.1515

ICT Entry Model:

  • Liquidity sweep → CHoCH → entry on FVG or order block
  • High probability setups during London and New York sessions

5-Minute Timeframe (Execution Model)

This timeframe is used for precise entry timing.

Current Price Behavior:

  • Price is consolidating near 1.1520
  • Minor bullish movements appear as inducement rather than genuine reversal

Execution Strategy:

  1. Wait for liquidity sweep above 1.1540–1.1560
  2. Confirm bearish CHoCH on 5M
  3. Enter on FVG / order block retest

High-Probability Trade Setups

🔴 Setup 1: Intraday Sell (Primary Setup)

Bias: Bearish continuation

  • Entry Zone: 1.1550 – 1.1570
  • Stop Loss: Above 1.1600
  • Take Profit Targets:
    • TP1: 1.1500
    • TP2: 1.1450
    • TP3: 1.1400

Confluence:

  • Alignment with 1H and 4H supply zones
  • Presence of equal highs (liquidity) above
  • Bearish higher timeframe structure

🟢 Setup 2: Counter-Trend Buy (Scalp Only)

Bias: Short-term bullish reaction

  • Entry Zone: 1.1450 – 1.1480
  • Stop Loss: Below 1.1420
  • Targets:
    • TP1: 1.1500
    • TP2: 1.1540

Conditions:

  • Requires strong bullish displacement + CHoCH confirmation
  • This is a reaction trade, not a trend reversal

🔴 Setup 3: Breakout Continuation Sell

Scenario: Clean break below 1.1450

  • Entry: Retest of 1.1450 from below
  • Stop Loss: Above 1.1480
  • Take Profit Targets:
    • 1.1400
    • 1.1350 (daily demand)

Liquidity Map & Market Narrative

Buy-Side Liquidity:

  • Resting above 1.1550–1.1600
  • Likely to be swept before continuation lower

Sell-Side Liquidity:

  • Located below 1.1450 and 1.1400
  • Primary downside targets

Smart Money Objective:

  • Induce buyers into resistance
  • Capture liquidity above highs
  • Distribute positions → push price lower

Session-Based Trading Plan

London Session:

  • Expect liquidity grabs and fake breakouts
  • Ideal for early entry after structure confirmation

New York Session:

  • Increased volatility and trend continuation potential
  • Best session for executing sell setups

Risk Management Guidelines

  • Risk 1–2% per trade
  • Always wait for structure confirmation (CHoCH/BOS)
  • Avoid:
    • Trading during consolidation
    • Entering before high-impact news

Final Trading Outlook

EURUSD is currently aligned in a bearish structure across higher timeframes, with intraday charts supporting continuation to the downside.

Short-term bullish moves should be interpreted as retracements into premium zones, offering opportunities for short entries rather than signaling reversals.

Key Takeaways:

  • Prioritize sell setups over buys
  • Trade liquidity sweeps and confirmation models
  • Target sell-side liquidity below current price

 

Related Forex Analysis

Compare with eurusd previous outlook, EURUSD weekly outlook, GBPUSD daily outlook, and USDCHF daily outlook.