EURUSD Intraday Outlook – Smart Money Concepts (ICT Analysis)

Market Overview

EURUSD is currently trading in a short-term bullish retracement following a strong bearish move from the 1.1800 region. The recent price action shows a clear sell-side liquidity sweep near 1.1400, followed by strong displacement to the upside.

This suggests:

  • Smart money has engineered liquidity below equal lows
  • Price is now rebalancing inefficiencies upward
  • Current bullish movement is corrective within a broader bearish context

In simple terms:

The market is bullish intraday, but still bearish overall.

Multi-Timeframe Breakdown

Daily Timeframe – Bearish Bias Intact

  • Market structure remains bearish
  • Strong rejection from highs near 1.2000
  • No confirmed bullish reversal yet
  • Current move = retracement into premium

Key Insight:

  • Until price reclaims 1.1800, daily bias remains bearish
  • Upside is likely a temporary move into supply

4H Timeframe – Bullish Retracement Phase

  • Clear Change of Character (CHoCH) after sweeping lows
  • Strong bullish displacement confirms short-term buying pressure
  • Price is now approaching 4H supply zone

Key Levels:

  • Supply: 1.1650 – 1.1700
  • Demand: 1.1450 – 1.1500

Interpretation:

  • Price is entering a premium zone
  • Expect potential reaction or reversal from supply

1H Timeframe – Bullish Structure

  • Higher highs and higher lows intact
  • Strong upward momentum after demand reaction
  • Price is targeting buy-side liquidity above recent highs (~1.1620)

Important Concept:

  • Liquidity above highs = fuel for smart money manipulation

15M & 5M – Execution Timeframes

  • Internal bullish structure confirmed
  • Pullbacks forming into inefficiencies (FVGs)
  • Ideal for refined entries with confirmation

Key Zones to Watch

Resistance / Sell Zones:

  • 1.1620 (intraday liquidity)
  • 1.1650 – 1.1700 (major supply)

Support / Buy Zones:

  • 1.1500 – 1.1520 (intraday demand)
  • 1.1450 (strong demand)

Trade Setups

1. Premium Sell Setup (High Probability)

Entry: 1.1650 – 1.1700
Stop Loss: Above 1.1725
Targets:

  • TP1: 1.1550
  • TP2: 1.1500
  • TP3: 1.1400

Why this works:

  • Aligns with higher timeframe bearish bias
  • Located at premium pricing
  • Likely liquidity sweep before reversal

Confirmation required:

  • Lower timeframe CHoCH (5M / 15M)
  • Bearish engulfing or displacement

2. Intraday Buy Setup (Continuation Play)

Entry: 1.1500 – 1.1520
Stop Loss: Below 1.1475
Targets:

  • TP1: 1.1600
  • TP2: 1.1650

Why this works:

  • Demand zone + bullish structure intact
  • Continuation of intraday trend

Important note:

  • This is counter to daily bias → manage risk carefully

3. Liquidity Sweep Scalping Setup

Scenario:

  • Price breaks above 1.1620
  • Quickly rejects (fake breakout)

Entry:

  • After bearish confirmation on lower timeframe

Target:

  • Return to range lows

ICT Logic Behind the Move

Current market structure reflects a classic ICT model:

  1. Sell-side liquidity taken (below 1.1400)
  2. Strong bullish displacement
  3. Internal structure shift (CHoCH)
  4. Price moving toward premium

Now the key decision point:

Will price continue higher or reverse from premium?

Smart money typically:

  • Buys in discount
  • Sells in premium
  • Uses liquidity to enter positions

Intraday Session Expectations

Asian Session

  • Range-bound / consolidation
  • Liquidity building

London Session

  • Stop hunts / manipulation
  • Fake breakouts possible

New York Session (Key Session)

  • True directional move
  • Best execution window

Tip:

  • Avoid early entries — let London manipulate
  • Look for confirmation in New York

Risk Management Guidelines

  • Risk only 1–2% per trade
  • Avoid trading mid-range
  • Wait for confirmation (don’t anticipate blindly)
  • Focus on liquidity + structure

Final Outlook

EURUSD offers a high-quality trading environment today with:

  • Clear liquidity levels
  • Defined supply and demand zones
  • Strong structure across timeframes

Key Takeaway:

The best opportunity is to sell into strength at premium levels — not chase bullish moves.

However:

  • Intraday buys remain valid while structure holds
  • Flexibility is key — follow price action, not bias

Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trading Forex involves risk. Always use proper risk management.