EURUSD Weekly analysis 06-12 April 2026

EURUSD Multi-Timeframe ICT & SMC Analysis (Next Week Trading Plan)

News context: Ahead of fresh macro catalysts and shifting dollar sentiment, EURUSD remains in focus for traders watching directional continuation and liquidity reactions.

EURUSD is currently positioned in a corrective bearish phase within a broader range environment, following a strong rejection from premium levels and a clear shift in market structure. The recent price action reflects institutional distribution, with multiple liquidity sweeps and internal structure breaks confirming short-term downside pressure.

This analysis integrates ICT (Inner Circle Trader) and Smart Money Concepts (SMC) across the Daily, 4H, 1H, and 30M timeframes, providing a detailed and execution-focused trading framework for the upcoming week.

Macro Outlook & Fundamental Drivers

EURUSD is primarily driven by USD strength and Eurozone economic conditions.

High-Impact Events to Watch

USD Drivers

• U.S. CPI (Inflation Data)
  • Higher inflation → USD strength → EURUSD bearish
  • Lower inflation → USD weakness → EURUSD bullish
• FOMC Speeches
  • Hawkish → bearish EURUSD
  • Dovish → bullish EURUSD
• Labor Market Data
  • Strong NFP → USD bullish

EUR Drivers

• ECB Commentary
  • Hawkish ECB → EUR strength
  • Dovish ECB → EUR weakness
• Eurozone PMI / GDP
  • Weak data → bearish EUR

Institutional Narrative

• Price swept major buy-side liquidity near 1.20+
• Followed by:
  • Strong bearish displacement
  • Clear CHoCH on daily timeframe
• Market now:
  • Trading toward discount zones
  • Showing range-bound behavior

Daily Timeframe Analysis (HTF Bias)

Market Structure Overview

• Previous bullish trend → CHoCH → bearish shift
• Price rejected from:
  • 1.20 – 1.21 premium zone
• Currently forming:
  • Lower highs

Key Zones

Premium Supply Zones

• 1.1750 – 1.1850 → strong supply
• 1.1900 – 1.2000 → major HTF zone

Discount Demand Zones

• 1.1450 – 1.1400 → strong demand
• 1.1350 → deeper liquidity

Key Observations

• Market transitioning into:
  • Distribution → potential markdown
• Large imbalance above still exists

Daily Bias

• Short-term: Bearish
• Mid-term: Range
• Invalidation:
  • Break above 1.1850

4H Timeframe Analysis (Directional Bias)

Structure Breakdown

• Clear bearish BOS
• Lower highs forming
• Strong rejection from supply

Supply Zones

• 1.1600 – 1.1650 → key resistance
• 1.1650 – 1.1700 → extended supply

Demand Zones

• 1.1500 – 1.1450 → current support
• 1.1400 → major liquidity

Liquidity Map

Buy-Side Liquidity

• 1.1600
• 1.1700

Sell-Side Liquidity

• 1.1500
• 1.1450
• 1.1400

4H Bias

• Bearish below 1.1600
• Expect:
  • Retracements → continuation lower

1H Timeframe Analysis (Refined Execution View)

Market Behavior

• Short-term consolidation
• Minor bullish retracement
• Internal structure shifting

Key Levels

Resistance

• 1.1550 – 1.1600
• 1.1620

Support

• 1.1500
• 1.1450

Interpretation

• Market likely in:
  • Retracement phase within bearish trend
• Expect:
  • Push into premium → sell

30-Minute Timeframe (Intraday Model)

Session Behavior (ICT)

• Asia → accumulation
• London → manipulation
• New York → expansion

Current Context

• Price around 1.1515 – 1.1550
• Weak structure near lows
• Potential liquidity target below

Intraday Liquidity

• Upside:
  • 1.1550 → 1.1600
• Downside:
  • 1.1500 → 1.1450 → 1.1400

ICT Trading Scenarios for Next Week

Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation (Primary Setup)

Narrative

• Price retraces into supply
• Sweeps buy-side liquidity
• Institutions re-enter shorts

Entry Criteria

• Price reaches 1.1550 – 1.1620
• Liquidity sweep above highs
• Bearish CHoCH on lower timeframe

Trade Plan

• Entry: 1.1560 – 1.1620
• Stop Loss: Above 1.1650

Targets

• TP1: 1.1500
• TP2: 1.1450
• TP3: 1.1400

Confluence

• 4H supply
• Daily bearish bias
• Liquidity above highs

Scenario 2: Breakdown Continuation (Momentum Sell)

Narrative

• Weak retracement
• Price breaks below 1.1500
• Continuation into deeper liquidity

Entry Criteria

• Break + retest of 1.1500
• Bearish FVG entry

Trade Plan

• Entry: 1.1480 – 1.1510
• Stop Loss: Above 1.1550

Targets

• TP1: 1.1450
• TP2: 1.1400
• TP3: 1.1350

Scenario 3: Counter-Trend Bullish Reversal

Narrative

• Sell-side liquidity sweep below 1.1450
• Entry into daily demand
• Strong bullish reaction

Entry Criteria

• Sweep below 1.1450
• Bullish CHoCH

Trade Plan

• Entry: 1.1400 – 1.1460
• Stop Loss: Below 1.1350

Targets

• TP1: 1.1550
• TP2: 1.1650
• TP3: 1.1750

Sniper Entry Model (ICT Precision Framework)

Conditions for High-Probability Trades

• Liquidity sweep
• Displacement candle
• Fair Value Gap (FVG)
• Entry on retracement

Execution Workflow

• Identify liquidity pool
• Wait for sweep
• Confirm CHoCH
• Enter at FVG

Risk-Reward Profile

• Minimum: 1:3
• Ideal: 1:5 to 1:10

Optimal Trading Sessions

Killzones

• London Open (7–10 AM GMT)
• New York Open (12–3 PM GMT)

Strategy Notes

• Avoid low-volatility Asia entries
• Focus on:
  • Post-news volatility
  • Liquidity grabs

Liquidity Map Summary

Buy-Side Liquidity

• 1.1550
• 1.1600
• 1.1700

Sell-Side Liquidity

• 1.1500
• 1.1450
• 1.1400

Risk Management Framework

• Risk per trade: 1–2%
• Use:
  • Partial take profits
  • Trailing stops

Common Mistakes to Avoid

• Entering without confirmation
• Ignoring HTF bias
• Chasing price

Weekly Outlook Summary

• Market phase:
  • Distribution → potential markdown
• Bias:
  • Short-term bearish
  • Mid-term range

Best Opportunities

• Sell:
  • 1.1550 – 1.1650
• Buy:
  • 1.1400 – 1.1450 (counter-trend)

Final Thoughts

EURUSD is currently offering a structured ICT environment, characterized by:

• Clean liquidity sweeps
• Defined supply/demand zones
• Strong institutional footprints

Key Takeaway

• Focus on:
  • Selling from premium
  • Trading with HTF bias
• Be patient:
  • Let liquidity form
  • Execute after confirmation

The market rewards precision and patience — wait for your setup, then execute with confidence.

Related Forex Analysis

Compare with eurusd previous outlook, USDCAD daily outlook, GBPUSD daily outlook, and USDCHF daily outlook.

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