EURUSD Weekly Outlook & ICT/SMC Trade Plan (Next Week)

News context: Ahead of fresh macro catalysts and shifting dollar sentiment, EURUSD remains in focus for traders watching directional continuation and liquidity reactions.

📊 Multi-Timeframe Technical Overview (ICT + SMC Perspective)

EURUSD is currently exhibiting a clear bearish market structure shift, transitioning from a prior range-bound accumulation into a downward expansion phase. Across all timeframes, the charts reflect ICT principles of liquidity sweeps, BOS (Break of Structure), and CHoCH (Change of Character), confirming that smart money has shifted bias toward selling rallies rather than buying dips.

The pair is now trading near discount levels, approaching key demand zones, which introduces the possibility of short-term retracements before continuation lower.

🧭 Daily Timeframe Analysis (Macro Bias)

🔹 Market Structure

  • Price has transitioned from:
    • Range → Expansion → Distribution
  • A clear CHoCH has formed, followed by:
    • Bearish BOS confirming trend shift
  • Lower highs and lower lows structure intact

🔹 Smart Money Narrative

  • Prior bullish liquidity above 1.19–1.21 has been tapped
  • Market now targeting:
    • Sell-side liquidity below 1.14–1.12

🔹 Key Zones

  • Supply (Premium):
    • 1.18–1.19
    • 1.20–1.21 (strong high)
  • Demand (Discount):
    • 1.14–1.13
    • 1.12–1.11

📌 Daily Bias

  • Bearish
  • Expect:
    • Retracements into supply → continuation lower

🔍 4H Timeframe Analysis (Swing Structure)

🔹 Market Behavior

  • Clear bearish trend:
    • BOS → pullback → continuation
  • Lower highs forming consistently

🔹 Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)

  • Bearish FVG zones:
    • 1.16–1.165
    • 1.17–1.175

👉 These act as:

  • Institutional sell zones

🔹 Liquidity Perspective

  • Equal highs around 1.165–1.17
  • Equal lows near 1.145

👉 Indicates:

  • Liquidity resting on both sides → likely sweep before expansion

📌 4H Bias

  • Sell rallies
  • Bearish continuation expected

⚡ 1H Timeframe Analysis (Execution Framework)

🔹 Structure

  • Mixed short-term:
    • Bearish trend
    • Minor bullish corrections

🔹 Liquidity Zones

  • Internal liquidity:
    • 1.155–1.160 (mid-range)
  • Equal lows:
    • Near 1.150

🔹 Institutional Footprint

  • Repeated CHoCH patterns confirm:
    • Market is engineering liquidity before continuation

📌 1H Bias

  • Short-term range
  • Breakout expected after liquidity sweep

⏱️ 30Min Timeframe (Entry Model)

🔹 Intraday Structure

  • Tight consolidation near lows
  • Internal BOS/CHoCH cycles forming

🔹 Key Zones

  • Premium (Sell Zone):
    • 1.158–1.165
  • Discount (Buy Zone):
    • 1.145–1.150

🔹 Model in Play

  • Liquidity → Manipulation → Expansion

📌 Intraday Bias

  • Wait for:
    • Liquidity sweep
    • Confirmed entry

🌍 Fundamental Drivers for EURUSD (Next Week)

🇺🇸 US Dollar Outlook

🔹 Key Events

  • US PCE inflation data
  • Consumer sentiment
  • Federal Reserve commentary

🔹 Impact

  • Strong data:
    • USD bullish → EURUSD bearish
  • Weak data:
    • Temporary EURUSD rallies

🇪🇺 Eurozone Fundamentals

🔹 Key Factors

  • ECB monetary policy outlook
  • Inflation trends
  • Economic growth concerns

🔹 Impact

  • Weak Eurozone data:
    • EUR weakness → downside pressure
  • Hawkish ECB:
    • Temporary support for EUR

🏦 Interest Rate Divergence

  • Fed remains relatively hawkish
  • ECB more cautious

👉 Result:

  • USD strength dominates EURUSD direction

🌐 Risk Sentiment & Geopolitics

  • Risk-off sentiment:
    • Supports USD
  • Global uncertainty:
    • Adds volatility

👉 Leads to:

  • Stronger bearish bias overall

🎯 High-Probability Trade Setups (ICT Models)

🔴 Setup 1: Sell the Rally (Primary Setup)

🔹 Logic

  • Bearish higher timeframe structure
  • Retracement into supply

🔹 Entry Plan

  • Zone: 1.158–1.170
  • Confirmation:
    • Bearish CHoCH
    • Rejection wicks

🔹 Targets

  • TP1: 1.150
  • TP2: 1.145
  • TP3: 1.135

🔹 Stop Loss

  • Above 1.175

👉 RR: 1:3 to 1:5

🟢 Setup 2: Counter-Trend Buy (Short-Term)

🔹 Logic

  • Discount zone reaction
  • Sell-side liquidity sweep

🔹 Entry Plan

  • Zone: 1.145–1.150
  • Confirmation:
    • Bullish CHoCH
    • Strong displacement

🔹 Targets

  • TP1: 1.155
  • TP2: 1.165

🔹 Stop Loss

  • Below 1.140

👉 RR: 1:2 to 1:4

🔵 Setup 3: Breakout Continuation (Bearish)

🔹 Logic

  • Continuation of bearish trend

🔹 Entry Plan

  • Break below 1.145
  • Retest entry

🔹 Targets

  • 1.135 → 1.120

🔹 Risk

  • False breakout / liquidity trap

⚠️ Setup 4: News Volatility Trade

🔹 Trigger

  • High-impact USD/EUR data

🔹 Strategy

  • Wait for:
    • Displacement move
    • CHoCH confirmation

🔹 Targets

  • 50–150+ pips

🧠 ICT Trading Narrative for the Week

🔹 Expected Market Flow

  • Early Week:
    • Consolidation near lows
    • Liquidity buildup
  • Mid Week:
    • Sweep highs (sell setup)
    • Or sweep lows (trap move)
  • Late Week:
    • Expansion phase (bearish continuation)

📌 Key Levels to Watch

🔹 Resistance

  • 1.160
  • 1.170
  • 1.190

🔹 Support

  • 1.150
  • 1.145
  • 1.120

⚖️ Weekly Bias Summary

  • Market Structure: Bearish
  • Smart Money Positioning: Sell rallies
  • USD Strength: Bullish
  • ECB Outlook: Mixed
  • Overall Bias: Bearish

🧾 Final Trading Plan

✅ Preferred Strategy

  • Sell at premium zones (FVG / supply)

⚠️ Risk Management

  • Avoid selling at lows
  • Wait for retracements
  • Be cautious during news events

🧠 Pro Insight

  • “In a bearish market, smart money distributes at premium — follow the liquidity.”

🚀 Conclusion

EURUSD is currently in a clear bearish expansion phase, with smart money consistently:

  • Selling into rallies
  • Targeting lower liquidity
  • Maintaining downward pressure

However, due to:

  • Economic data releases
  • Short-term liquidity imbalances

👉 Expect:

  • Temporary bullish retracements
  • Volatile price action

🔥 Final Takeaway

  • Focus on premium sells
  • Use ICT confirmation (CHoCH + displacement)
  • Avoid chasing price at lows

 

Related Forex Analysis

Compare with eurusd previous outlook, gold daily outlook, USDJPY daily outlook, and USDCHF daily outlook.