USDJPY Daily Outlook, 25 March 2026

USDJPY Smart Money Concept (SMC) & ICT Multi-Timeframe Analysis – Intraday Trading Plan

📊 Market Overview

USDJPY remains in a strong higher timeframe bullish trend, driven by sustained institutional accumulation and continuation (BOS sequences). Price has recently pushed into a major premium zone near 159.30–160.00, where signs of distribution and short-term exhaustion are beginning to emerge.

Across lower timeframes, we observe:

• Liquidity sweeps on both sides
• Short-term CHOCH formations
• A developing range-bound manipulation phase near highs

This creates a classic ICT environment:

• HTF Bias → Bullish
• LTF Context → Potential bearish retracement before continuation

🔍 Daily Timeframe – Macro Bullish Structure

Key Observations:

• Clear bullish market structure (HH → HL) with multiple BOS confirmations.
• Price recently tapped into major resistance / premium zone (~159.50–160.00).
• Presence of a weak high, suggesting liquidity is resting above.
• Current candles indicate slowing momentum near highs.

ICT Concepts:

• Premium Pricing: Above equilibrium → sell zones for retracement
• Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL): Above 159.50 highs
• Continuation Model: Long-term bullish intact

Daily Bias:

👉 Bullish overall, but expecting a short-term pullback

⏱ 4H Timeframe – Distribution at Highs

Key Developments:

• Price entered a 4H supply zone (~159.20–159.60) and showed rejection.
• Multiple CHOCH signals to the downside indicate:
  • Internal weakness
  • Possible retracement phase
• Formation of:
  • Lower highs (LH)
  • Failed bullish continuation attempts

Key Zones:

• Supply Zone: 159.20–159.60
• Demand Zone: 157.50–158.00
• Internal Demand: 158.80–159.00

Interpretation:

The 4H suggests distribution at highs, meaning:

• Smart money may be taking profits
• Market preparing for discount rebalancing

👉 Expectation: Sell short-term, buy lower

🕐 1H Timeframe – Internal Range & Liquidity Build

Key Insights:

• Price created a bullish BOS, but failed to continue aggressively
• Strong rejection from 159.60 highs
• Formation of:
  • Internal range
  • Equal highs (EQH) and equal lows (EQL)

ICT Concepts:

• Liquidity Pool Formation
• Inducement before expansion
• Internal consolidation before directional move

Key Levels:

• Resistance: 159.30–159.60
• Support: 158.80–159.00

👉 Expectation:

• Liquidity grab above highs possible
• Followed by retracement

⚡ 15M Timeframe – Intraday Structure

Observations:

• Strong bullish trend earlier → now slowing
• Price formed:
  • Multiple BOS (bullish)
  • Recent consolidation near highs
• Presence of:
  • Equal highs (~159.30)
  • Internal demand (~158.80)

Structure:

• Bullish bias remains intact
• But price is in premium zone → vulnerable to pullback

👉 Intraday Bias:

• Neutral → bearish near highs
• Bullish at discount

⚡ 5M Timeframe – Entry Precision

Key Features:

• Multiple CHOCH shifts (both directions)
• Liquidity sweeps above highs and below lows
• Consolidation below 159.30 resistance

Smart Money Narrative:

• Retail traders entering longs near highs
• Smart money likely:
  • Engineering liquidity
  • Preparing for stop hunt + reversal

🎯 High-Probability Trade Setups

🟥 Setup 1: Premium Sell (Intraday Retracement – High Probability)

Narrative:

Trade short-term bearish retracement from premium

Entry Model:

1. Wait for price to:
   • Sweep 159.30–159.60 highs (liquidity zone)
2. Confirm:
   • Bearish CHOCH on 5M/15M
   • Entry from:
     • Bearish OB
     • Fair Value Gap

Entry Zone:

👉 159.30 – 159.70

Stop Loss:

👉 Above 160.00

Targets:

• TP1: 159.00
• TP2: 158.80
• TP3: 158.50

RR Potential:

🔥 1:3 to 1:5

Confluence:

• Premium pricing
• Liquidity above highs
• 4H distribution

🟩 Setup 2: Discount Buy (Trend Continuation)

Narrative:

Buy the dip in alignment with HTF bullish trend

Entry Model:

1. Wait for pullback into:
   • 158.50–158.80 demand zone
2. Confirm:
   • Bullish CHOCH (5M)
   • Strong displacement

Entry Zone:

👉 158.50 – 158.80

Stop Loss:

👉 Below 158.20

Targets:

• TP1: 159.20
• TP2: 159.60
• TP3: 160.00

RR:

⚡ 1:3 to 1:6

🟨 Setup 3: Liquidity Trap (False Breakout Above Highs)

Narrative:

Trap breakout traders above resistance

Conditions:

• Strong breakout above 159.50
• Retail enters long positions

Smart Money Move:

• Immediate rejection
• Bearish engulfing candle

Entry:

👉 After CHOCH confirmation

Target:

• Quick drop toward 159.00

📅 Intraday Trading Plan

London Session:

• Likely consolidation near highs
• Liquidity buildup

New York Session:

🔥 High-probability expansion phase

Scenarios:

1. Liquidity sweep above 159.50 → SELL retracement
2. Drop into demand → BUY continuation

⚠️ Risk Management Guidelines

• Avoid trading mid-range (159.00–159.20)
• Focus on extremes:
  • Premium sells
  • Discount buys
• Always wait for:
  • Lower timeframe confirmation (CHOCH)
• USDJPY volatility:
  • Sensitive to yields & BOJ intervention rhetoric

🏁 Final Bias Summary

🧾 Conclusion

USDJPY remains in a strong bullish macro trend, but price is currently trading in a premium zone where smart money is likely distributing and engineering liquidity.

The most probable play is:
👉 Short-term sell from premium, followed by continuation buys from discount

This dual-direction environment offers:

• High RR intraday sells
• Trend continuation swing buys

Related Forex Analysis

See the previous USDJPY outlook, compare with the GBPJPY daily outlook, and assess risk via the gold outlook. Also review COT reports.

• USDJPY previous outlook
• GBPJPY daily outlook
• gold outlook
• COT reports insight