AUDJPY Multi-Timeframe ICT & SMC Analysis (Intraday Trading Plan)

This breakdown delivers a precision-focused Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT-based analysis of AUDJPY using the Daily, 4H, 1H, 15M, and 5M charts. The goal is to align higher timeframe bias with intraday execution and map high-probability setups, including sniper entry models (1:10–1:15 RR).

🔷 Daily Timeframe – Macro Context

Market Structure Overview

The daily chart shows a strong bullish expansion phase transitioning into distribution:

  • Series of clean BOS (Break of Structure) confirming bullish trend
  • Price has aggressively moved from ~102.00 → 113.00
  • Currently reacting from a major buy-side liquidity pool (equal highs / weak highs)

Key Observations

  • Price tapped into premium zone (112.50–113.50)
  • Strong rejection indicates:
    • Liquidity grab completed
    • Potential macro pullback phase beginning
  • Inefficiencies (FVGs) remain unfilled below:
    • 109.00 – 107.00 zone
    • 104.00 zone (deeper draw)

Bias

➡️ Short-term bearish retracement inside bullish macro trend
➡️ Draw on liquidity = sell-side (downside inefficiencies)

🔶 4H Timeframe – Structural Transition

Key Structural Shift

  • Clear CHOCH (Change of Character) from bullish → bearish
  • Lower high formed near 113.00 supply
  • Multiple bearish impulsive legs

Institutional Zones

  • Premium Supply: 112.00 – 113.20
  • Intermediate Supply: 110.80 – 111.20
  • Demand Zones:
    • 109.50 – 109.80 (minor)
    • 108.00 – 108.80 (strong)
    • 106.50 – 107.20 (HTF demand)

Interpretation

  • Market is in retracement/distribution phase
  • Upside moves = liquidity engineering (sell setups)

🔬 1H Timeframe – Intraday Bias

Structure

  • Strong bearish displacement from highs
  • Continuous formation of:
    • Lower highs
    • Lower lows
  • Recent bullish move = corrective pullback

Current Price Location

  • Price trading near 110.00–110.20
  • Sitting just below intraday supply zone

Key Signals

  • CHOCH followed by BOS confirms:
    • bearish continuation bias
  • Internal liquidity being built above recent highs

🔍 15M Timeframe – Execution Context

Observations

  • Clean intraday bearish trend structure
  • Multiple FVGs left during sell-offs
  • Current move:
    • Bullish retracement into inefficiency

Key Insight

➡️ This is a classic ICT “sell the retracement” environment

⚡ 5M Timeframe – Precision Entry Layer

Current Price Behavior

  • Formation of:
    • Equal highs (EQH)
    • Minor liquidity pools
  • Price pushing into short-term premium zone

This aligns perfectly with:

➡️ Liquidity sweep → reversal → continuation lower

🎯 High-Probability Trade Setups

🔴 Scenario 1: Premium Sell Setup (Primary Bias)

Narrative

  • Market is retracing into supply
  • Smart money likely to:
    • Sweep buy-side liquidity
    • Enter short positions

Sniper Entry Model (1:10–1:15 RR)

Execution Framework

  1. Liquidity Sweep
    • Price runs above:
      • 110.20 → 110.60
    • Forms wick or inducement
  2. 5M CHOCH
    • Break of internal higher low
  3. Displacement
    • Strong bearish candle
    • Leaves FVG
  4. Entry
    • At:
      • 50% FVG
      • Bearish order block

Trade Parameters

  • Entry Zone: 110.20 – 110.80
  • Stop Loss: 111.20
  • Targets:
    • TP1: 109.50
    • TP2: 108.80
    • TP3: 108.00

RR Potential

  • Conservative: 1:6–1:8
  • Sniper execution: 1:10–1:15

Confluence Factors

  • HTF premium zone
  • 4H supply
  • 1H bearish structure
  • Liquidity inducement

🟢 Scenario 2: Discount Buy Setup (Counter-Trend)

Narrative

If price aggressively sells into demand:

  • Targets sell-side liquidity
  • Enters HTF discount zone

This creates opportunity for:

➡️ Short-term bullish reversal

Sniper Entry Model

  1. Sell-side liquidity sweep
    • Below 109.00 or 108.80
  2. Bullish CHOCH (5M/15M)
  3. Strong displacement candle
  4. FVG retracement entry

Trade Parameters

  • Entry Zone: 108.00 – 108.80
  • Stop Loss: Below 107.50
  • Targets:
    • TP1: 109.80
    • TP2: 110.50
    • TP3: 111.00

RR Profile

  • 1:8 to 1:12 RR

🔵 Scenario 3: Breaker Block Continuation

Narrative

If bearish momentum strengthens:

  • Demand fails
  • Turns into breaker block

Execution

  • Wait for:
    • Retest of 109.50–109.80
  • Enter short on rejection

Targets

  • 108.80
  • 108.00
  • 107.20

⏱️ ICT Kill Zones (Timing Precision)

Best Execution Windows

  • London Kill Zone:
    08:00 – 10:00 London
  • New York Kill Zone:
    13:30 – 15:30 London

Why These Matter

  • High liquidity injections
  • Stop hunts
  • Institutional entries

🔬 Candle-Level Sniper Models

🔴 Bearish Entry (Ideal)

  1. Price sweeps 110.60 highs
  2. Forms rejection wick
  3. Next candle:
    • Breaks previous low → CHOCH
  4. Strong bearish displacement
  5. FVG forms

➡️ Entry: 50% of FVG
➡️ Stop: Above wick
➡️ Target: Liquidity below

🟢 Bullish Entry (Reversal)

  1. Price sweeps 108.80 lows
  2. Strong bullish engulfing candle
  3. BOS confirmation
  4. Entry at FVG retrace

⚖️ Risk Management

  • Risk per trade: 0.5%–1%
  • Avoid:
    • Mid-range entries
    • No-liquidity setups
  • Focus on:
    • Structure
    • Timing
    • Liquidity

🧠 Execution Philosophy

  • Trade after liquidity events, not before
  • Let market confirm intent
  • Avoid emotional entries
  • Precision > frequency

📌 Final Intraday Outlook

  • Short-Term Bias: Bearish below 111.00
  • Primary Play: Sell from premium (110.20–110.80)
  • Secondary Play: Buy from discount (108.00–108.80)

The market is currently in a corrective phase, offering high-quality intraday opportunities on both sides—provided entries are aligned with liquidity and structure.