AUDJPY Weekly analysis 06-12 April 2026

AUDJPY Multi-Timeframe ICT & SMC Analysis (Next Week Trading Plan)

AUDJPY is currently positioned at a critical inflection point, transitioning from a strong bullish trend into a corrective/distribution phase. This creates a high-probability environment for both reversal trades from premium zones and continuation trades from discount areas, depending on how liquidity is engineered during the week.

This breakdown integrates ICT (Inner Circle Trader) concepts and Smart Money Concepts (SMC) across Daily, 4H, 1H, and 30M timeframes, delivering a complete institutional trading framework for the upcoming week.

Macro Outlook & Fundamental Drivers

AUDJPY is a risk-sensitive pair, heavily influenced by:

• Global risk sentiment (equities, commodities)
• Chinese economic outlook (affects AUD)
• Bank of Japan (JPY weakness/strength cycles)

Key Events to Watch Next Week

AUD Drivers

• Australian Employment Data
  • Strong data → AUD bullish → AUDJPY up
  • Weak data → AUD bearish → AUDJPY down
• RBA Commentary
  • Hawkish → bullish continuation
  • Dovish → corrective downside

JPY Drivers

• BoJ Intervention Risk
  • Any intervention → sharp AUDJPY drop
• Risk-Off Moves
  • Yen strengthens → bearish AUDJPY

Global Factors

• Equity market performance
• Commodity prices (especially iron ore)

Institutional Narrative (Smart Money Perspective)

• Market recently:
  • Expanded aggressively to 113–114 highs
  • Swept liquidity above prior highs
• Now:
  • Showing clear bearish CHoCH on lower timeframes
  • Pulling back into inefficiencies

Current Phase

• Transition from expansion → distribution → potential retracement

Daily Timeframe Analysis (HTF Context)

Market Structure

• Strong bullish trend (series of BOS)
• Recent:
  • Rejection from 114 zone
  • Weak high formation

Key Zones

Premium Supply Zone

• 112.50 – 114.00 → major institutional supply

Discount Demand Zones

• 109.00 – 108.00 → strong demand
• 107.00 → deeper liquidity

Observations

• Price is:
  • Pulling back from premium
• Likely:
  • Seeking liquidity below

Daily Bias

• Bullish overall trend
• Short-term bearish correction likely

4H Timeframe Analysis (Directional Bias)

Structure

• Clear bearish CHoCH
• Lower highs forming
• Distribution visible

Supply Zones

• 111.50 – 113.00 → key sell zone
• 113.50+ → liquidity zone

Demand Zones

• 109.50 – 108.80 → immediate support
• 108.00 → strong demand

Liquidity Zones

Buy-Side Liquidity

• 111.50
• 113.00

Sell-Side Liquidity

• 109.50
• 108.50
• 108.00

4H Bias

• Bearish short-term
• Expect:
  • Retracement lower before continuation

1H Timeframe Analysis (Execution Layer)

Structure Insights

• Lower highs + weak bullish attempts
• Internal liquidity building

Key Levels

Resistance

• 110.80 – 111.20

Support

• 109.80
• 109.20

Interpretation

• Market is:
  • Consolidating before expansion
• Likely move:
  • Sweep highs → drop
  • OR sweep lows → bounce

30-Minute Timeframe (Intraday Execution)

ICT Session Behavior

• Asia → accumulation
• London → manipulation
• New York → distribution/expansion

Current Context

• Price:
  • Ranging near 110.00 – 110.30
• Equal highs + equal lows present

Intraday Targets

• Upside:
  • 111.00 → 112.00
• Downside:
  • 109.50 → 108.80

ICT Trade Setups for Next Week

Scenario 1: Premium Sell Setup (Primary Bias)

Narrative

• Price retraces into supply
• Sweeps liquidity
• Institutions sell from premium

Entry Model

• Sweep above:
  • 110.80 – 111.50
• Bearish CHoCH on LTF

Trade Plan

• Entry: 111.00 – 112.00
• Stop Loss: Above 113.00

Targets

• TP1: 109.80
• TP2: 109.00
• TP3: 108.50

Confluence

• 4H supply zone
• Lower high structure
• Weak bullish momentum

Scenario 2: Discount Buy Setup (Counter-Trend / Continuation)

Narrative

• Price sweeps sell-side liquidity
• Enters demand
• Institutions accumulate

Entry Model

• Sweep below:
  • 109.00
• Bullish CHoCH

Trade Plan

• Entry: 108.50 – 109.00
• Stop Loss: Below 108.00

Targets

• TP1: 110.00
• TP2: 111.50

Scenario 3: Breakout Continuation

Narrative

• Market breaks above supply
• Trend resumes

Entry Model

• Strong break above:
  • 112.00
• Retest holds

Trade Plan

• Entry: 112.00 – 112.20
• Stop Loss: Below 111.00

Targets

• TP1: 113.50
• TP2: 114.00

Sniper Entry Model (ICT Precision)

Conditions

• Liquidity sweep
• Displacement candle
• Fair Value Gap (FVG)
• Entry on retracement

Execution Steps

• Identify liquidity
• Wait for sweep
• Confirm CHoCH
• Enter FVG

Risk-Reward

• Minimum: 1:3
• Ideal: 1:5 to 1:10

Optimal Trading Sessions

Killzones

• London Open
• New York Open

Strategy Notes

• Avoid mid-range entries
• Trade:
  • From premium or discount only

Liquidity Map Summary

Buy-Side Liquidity

• 111.00
• 112.00
• 113.00

Sell-Side Liquidity

• 109.50
• 109.00
• 108.50

Risk Management Framework

• Risk per trade: 1–2%
• Use partial take profits
• Trail positions in trend

Avoid

• Trading inside consolidation
• Ignoring macro events
• Overleveraging during news

Weekly Outlook Summary

• Market condition:
  • Corrective phase within bullish trend
• Bias:
  • Short-term bearish
  • HTF bullish

Best Opportunities

• Sell:
  • 111.00 – 112.00
• Buy:
  • 108.50 – 109.00

Final Thoughts

AUDJPY is offering a high-quality ICT trading environment, characterized by:

• Liquidity sweeps
• Clear premium/discount zones
• Multi-timeframe confluence

Key Takeaway

• Let price:
  • Sweep liquidity first
• Then:
  • Enter on confirmation

The highest probability trades come from patience — wait for smart money to reveal intent, then execute with precision.