EURUSD Smart Money Concept (SMC) & ICT Multi-Timeframe Analysis – Intraday Trading Plan
📊 Market Overview
EURUSD is currently transitioning from a distribution phase into a bearish expansion, with clear Smart Money reversal signatures visible across higher timeframes. After forming a buy-side liquidity sweep near 1.20, price has shifted into a downward delivery algorithm, breaking structure and moving toward discount levels.
However, in the short term, the market is showing corrective bullish behavior, suggesting a retracement phase within a broader bearish trend.
This creates a classic ICT environment:
- Higher Timeframe Bias → Bearish
- Lower Timeframe Flow → Bullish retracement
🔍 Daily Timeframe (HTF Narrative)
The daily chart reveals a textbook distribution → reversal sequence.
Key Observations:
- Price swept major buy-side liquidity above 1.1900–1.2000
- Formed a weak high, followed by a clear CHOCH (Change of Character)
- Strong bearish displacement confirms institutional selling pressure
- Price is now approaching a major demand zone (~1.1200–1.1350)
ICT Concepts:
- Liquidity Sweep (BSL) → CHOCH → BOS
- Inefficiencies (FVGs) left behind above price
- Market trading toward discount array
HTF Bias:
👉 Bearish, until price reclaims 1.1750–1.1800 with strong displacement
⏱ 4H Timeframe – Bearish Continuation with Retracement
The 4H structure aligns strongly with the daily bias.
Key Insights:
- Clear BOS to the downside after breaking 1.1700
- Price formed:
- Lower highs (LH)
- Lower lows (LL)
- Current movement is a retracement into a supply zone (~1.1600–1.1650)
Important Zones:
- Supply (Premium):
- 1.1600–1.1650 (current reaction zone)
- 1.1750–1.1800 (major supply)
- Demand (Discount):
- 1.1450–1.1500
- 1.1200–1.1350 (daily demand)
Interpretation:
This is a bearish continuation model, where:
- Upside = retracement
- Downside = expansion
👉 Best opportunities lie in selling rallies into supply
🕐 1H Timeframe – Internal Structure Shift
The 1H timeframe shows early signs of bullish retracement, but within bearish context.
Key Developments:
- A bullish CHOCH formed from 1.1450 lows
- Price created a short-term higher high (HH)
- Currently consolidating below 1.1600 resistance
ICT Concepts:
- Internal liquidity being built
- Potential inducement before continuation
- Price approaching premium zone of intraday range
Key Levels:
- Resistance: 1.1600–1.1620
- Support: 1.1550–1.1560
👉 Expectation:
- Price may raid liquidity above 1.1600
- Then resume bearish continuation
⚡ 15M Timeframe – Intraday Setup Development
The 15M chart provides a clear view of intraday liquidity engineering.
Observations:
- Price formed equal highs (EQH) near 1.1620 → liquidity pool
- A bearish CHOCH followed by BOS indicates:
- Weak bullish continuation
- Current price retracing after a sell-side liquidity sweep
Structure:
- Mixed signals → ranging environment
- Price oscillating between:
- 1.1570 (support)
- 1.1620 (resistance)
👉 Intraday Bias:
- Neutral → leaning bearish near highs
⚡ 5M Timeframe – Execution & Entry Precision
The 5M timeframe shows clear manipulation patterns.
Key Features:
- Multiple CHOCH and BOS shifts
- Liquidity sweeps on both sides → indicates:
- Accumulation/distribution phase
- Recent sell-side liquidity grab (~1.1560) followed by bounce
Smart Money Behavior:
- Inducing retail traders in both directions
- Preparing for a decisive expansion move
🎯 High-Probability Trade Setups
🟥 Setup 1: Premium Sell (Primary Setup – Trend Continuation)
Narrative:
Trade in alignment with higher timeframe bearish bias after liquidity grab.
Entry Model:
- Wait for price to:
- Sweep 1.1600–1.1620 highs (EQH / liquidity pool)
- Confirm:
- Bearish CHOCH on 5M/15M
- Entry from:
- Bearish Order Block
- Fair Value Gap
Entry Zone:
👉 1.1600 – 1.1650
Stop Loss:
👉 Above 1.1680
Targets:
- TP1: 1.1550
- TP2: 1.1500
- TP3: 1.1450
RR Potential:
🔥 1:3 to 1:5
Confluence:
- HTF bearish trend
- Premium pricing
- Liquidity inducement
🟩 Setup 2: Intraday Buy (Counter-Trend Scalping)
Narrative:
Short-term bullish continuation from demand.
Entry Model:
- Wait for pullback into:
- 1.1500–1.1550 demand zone
- Confirm:
- Bullish CHOCH on 5M
- Strong displacement candle
Entry Zone:
👉 1.1500 – 1.1550
Stop Loss:
👉 Below 1.1470
Targets:
- TP1: 1.1580
- TP2: 1.1620
RR:
⚡ 1:2 to 1:4
Important:
⚠️ Counter-trend → reduce position size
🟨 Setup 3: Liquidity Trap (False Breakout Model)
Narrative:
Trap breakout buyers above resistance.
Conditions:
- Price breaks above 1.1620 strongly
- Retail enters long positions
Smart Money Move:
- Immediate rejection
- Bearish engulfing candle
Entry:
👉 After CHOCH + displacement
Target:
- 1.1550 quick move
📅 Intraday Trading Plan
London Session:
- Range-bound movement
- Liquidity buildup
New York Session:
🔥 Expected expansion
Two likely scenarios:
- Liquidity sweep above 1.1600 → SELL continuation
- Deep pullback → BUY → then SELL reversal
⚠️ Risk Management Guidelines
- Avoid mid-range trades (1.1560–1.1580)
- Trade only at:
- Premium (sell)
- Discount (buy)
- Always wait for:
- CHOCH confirmation on LTF
- Watch USD news catalysts:
- Fed speakers
- CPI / PCE
- Bond yields
🏁 Final Bias Summary
| Timeframe | Bias |
|---|---|
| Daily | Bearish |
| 4H | Bearish |
| 1H | Neutral → Bearish |
| 15M | Range |
| 5M | Manipulation phase |
🧾 Conclusion
EURUSD is currently in a classic Smart Money retracement phase within a bearish macro structure. The higher timeframe clearly favors downside continuation, while lower timeframes offer temporary bullish moves designed to create liquidity.
The highest probability trade remains:
👉 Selling from premium zones after liquidity sweep
Intraday buying opportunities exist, but should be treated as:
⚠️ Short-term scalps only
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Compare with the previous EURUSD outlook, GBPUSD daily outlook, and USDCHF daily outlook. Also explore our AI forex trading signals.
