EURUSD Daily Outlook – Multi-Timeframe Analysis — April 29, 2026
News context: Ahead of fresh macro catalysts and shifting dollar sentiment, EURUSD remains in focus for traders watching directional continuation and liquidity reactions.
Current Price: 1.16861 | Session: New York PM | Time: ~20:02 UTC | Exchange: OANDA
EURUSD is exhibiting a well-structured bearish retracement from its recent cycle high of 1.18492, printed on April 17, and today’s session has continued that narrative with quiet but methodical selling pressure. Price opened the April 29 session at 1.17130, staged a brief spike to 1.17208 in the Asian session, and has since declined through the London and New York sessions to a fresh intraday low of 1.16826 before a partial bounce returned price to the current 1.16861 area. The critical structural pivot rests at the April 23 swing low of 1.16692, which has not yet been broken and represents the primary draw on liquidity from the current level.
Daily Chart — Descending Structure From the Cycle High
The daily chart is painting a clear bearish structural sequence in the aftermath of the April 17 high at 1.18492. Since that candle, each successive daily session has printed a lower high, and the market has been gradually but consistently pressing lower:
Daily Swing Highs (descending):
1.18492 (Apr 17) → 1.17911 (Apr 21) → 1.17627 (Apr 22) → 1.17550 (Apr 27) → 1.17270 (Apr 28) → 1.17208 (Apr 29, today)
Daily Close Lows (descending):
1.17638 → 1.17067 → 1.16827 → 1.17186 → 1.17208 → 1.17127 → 1.16862 (current)
The April 23 candle is the most structurally significant recent session. It printed an aggressive bearish move from open to a low of 1.16692, creating what now functions as the key Daily Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) pool. Stop losses from bulls who entered at support, along with breakout sell orders below that low, are clustered in the 1.16680–1.16640 zone. Every bearish follow-through session since then has been probing progressively closer to that level: April 28 low at 1.16775, today’s low at 1.16826 — a seemingly higher low, but the directional pressure continues to point south.
Today’s daily candle structure reflects the Daily Power of Three (PoT3) playing out in compressed form. The accumulation phase was the tight Asian session range at 1.17142–1.17208. The manipulation was the brief spike to 1.17208 (sweeping minor BSL above yesterday’s close), and the distribution has been the steady grinding lower to 1.16826. The fact that price has not managed a meaningful recovery suggests ongoing institutional supply overhead.
The daily bias is bearish. The primary target below is the April 23 low at 1.16692, and a daily close below that level would confirm a fresh BOS and open the path toward the 1.16400–1.16500 area.
4-Hour Chart — London Open Leads the Selling
The 4-hour chart provides the operational blueprint for today’s bearish move. The overnight Asian session on April 29 built a compact consolidation between 1.17129 and 1.17208, forming a tight 4H Bearish Order Block at that level. This block represents the last meaningful area of equilibrium before supply came in.
The London open 4H candle (08:00–12:00 UTC) opened at 1.17057, briefly touched 1.17083, then declined to 1.16936 before closing at 1.17002 — a bearish displacement of 121 pips that left a 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) between approximately 1.17002 and 1.17083. This imbalance is the primary target for any corrective retracement.
The 12:00–16:00 UTC 4H candle extended the selling slightly (low: 1.16935, close: 1.16990), and the current NY session 4H candle (16:00–20:00 UTC) opened at 1.16990, pushed to 1.17042, and has since declined to the current session low of 1.16826 before recovering to 1.16862. This 4H candle is critical: it shows price briefly recovering to 1.17042 — a test of the base of the 4H FVG — before rejecting and pressing lower. That rejection reinforces the supply zone validity.
4H Levels Summary:
- 4H Bearish OB: 1.17129–1.17208 (Asian session, origin of the sell)
- 4H FVG: 1.17002–1.17083 (London open imbalance, unfilled)
- Session Low / SSL: 1.16826 (today’s low)
- Critical support: 1.16692 (April 23 daily swing low)
1-Hour Chart — Internal Structure and the Rejection at 1.17032
The 1-hour chart shows a well-defined intraday bearish structure. The early Asian hours (01:00–07:00 UTC) saw price grinding between 1.17050 and 1.17208 without directional conviction. The London open (08:00 UTC) candle opened at 1.17057, printed a narrow high at 1.17058, and dropped to 1.16982 — a clean bearish displacement that established the session’s directional intent.
From 08:00 to 16:00 UTC, three consecutive bearish 1H candles pushed price from 1.17057 to the 1.16826 low, each printing a lower high and lower close. No bullish hour managed a meaningful BOS above the prior hour’s high.
The 16:00 UTC NY open candle is notable. It opened at 1.16990, briefly swept to 1.17034 (establishing a 1H BSL cluster), then dropped to 1.16826 — a 208 pip range in one hour, the largest of the session. This candle functions as a 1H Bearish Engulfing Order Block with its body centered around the 1.16826–1.16888 zone.
The 17:00 UTC candle staged a recovery to 1.17032 — but critically, this high is a lower high relative to the 16:00 candle’s spike at 1.17034 and significantly below the Asian high at 1.17208. This is precisely the kind of corrective push that fills sell orders for the next leg lower.
The 18:00 and 19:00 UTC 1H candles have since pulled back to 1.16874 and 1.16841 respectively, confirming the corrective bounce from 1.17032 is already failing. Current price at 1.16863 is pressing back toward the session low.
1H Key Levels:
- 1H Bearish OB: 1.17002–1.17042 (recovery high zone — the rejection point)
- 1H FVG: 1.16982–1.17083 (London open imbalance, partially filled)
- 1H Bullish OB: 1.16826–1.16838 (demand at the session low)
- SSL: 1.16826 → 1.16692 (next major draw)
15-Minute Chart — Compression Beneath Resistance
The 15-minute chart captures the post-low price action with precision. After the session low at 1.16826 (16:30 UTC), price staged a corrective sequence: 1.16844 → 1.16877 → 1.16929 → 1.17032 (high at 18:45 UTC), before selling back through 1.16988 → 1.16948 → 1.16922.
A particularly significant 15-minute candle appeared at approximately 18:55 UTC (time 1777477800): it opened at 1.17019, briefly spiked to 1.17042 — sweeping the BSL pool above 1.17032 — and then collapsed sharply to close at 1.16890, a 152-pip range on a single 15-minute candle. This is a classic 15-minute BSL Sweep followed by a Shift in Market Structure (SMS), confirming the corrective bounce has exhausted at exactly the base of the 4H FVG. Price has since continued lower: 1.16948 → 1.16918 → 1.16924 → 1.16867 → current 1.16862.
The Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) zone for today’s range (high 1.17208, low 1.16826, range = 382 pips):
- 38.2%: 1.16972
- 50%: 1.17017
- 61.8%: 1.17062
The corrective bounce topped at 1.17042 — precisely between the 61.8% and the prior swing high, at the very base of the 4H FVG. That alignment is not coincidental. It represents the OTE short entry zone where the balance of probability favored resumption lower.
15min Levels:
- BSL swept: 1.17042 (done — the manipulation high confirmed)
- Equal lows / SSL: 1.16826–1.16838 (current session low cluster)
- Next SSL: 1.16775 (April 28 low) → 1.16692 (April 23 swing low)
5-Minute Chart — Bearish Continuation In Progress
The 5-minute chart confirms that the corrective bounce has concluded and bearish continuation is underway. The key 5-minute development was the candle at 1777477800: a 148-pip sweep candle that pushed to 1.17042 (BSL raid) before collapsing back through 1.16900. That candle created a 5-minute Inversion FVG between 1.16890 and 1.17019, which acted as a magnet for the brief recovery to 1.16948–1.16954 before price accelerated lower.
The most recent 5-minute candles show a steady progression of lower highs: 1.16988 → 1.16970 → 1.16930 → 1.16916 → 1.16898 → 1.16872 → 1.16860 (current). Each 5-minute candle is making a lower close. Volume is thin at this hour (approaching 20:00 UTC), but the directional pressure is unambiguous. Current price at 1.16861 is approaching the 5-minute SSL cluster at 1.16841–1.16826, which represents stop losses from bulls who re-entered off the session low.
A sweep of 1.16826 followed by a flush to the 1.16800 round number would be consistent with the next micro-leg lower before any meaningful Asian session bounce.
ICT & SMC Confluence Level Map
Resistance / Supply Above:
| Zone | Level | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Micro-resistance | 1.16880–1.16900 | 5min OB, near-term |
| 1H recovery high | 1.17002–1.17042 | 1H FVG base, BSL swept |
| 4H FVG (unfilled top) | 1.17042–1.17083 | Primary supply |
| 4H Bearish OB | 1.17129–1.17208 | Asian session OB, today’s high |
Support / Demand Below:
| Zone | Level | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate SSL | 1.16826–1.16838 | Session low BSL cluster |
| April 28 low | 1.16775 | Prior swing low, SSL |
| Key Swing Low (Critical) | 1.16692 | April 23 daily low — primary target |
| Extended target | 1.16400–1.16500 | Next structural liquidity void |
Potential Trade Setups
Setup 1: Short from 1H/4H FVG Retracement (Primary Setup)
The 4H FVG between 1.17002 and 1.17083 remains the key unfilled imbalance on this chart. Any overnight Asian session push into this zone — particularly if it spikes toward 1.17042–1.17083 — provides the highest-quality short entry aligned with the daily, 4H, and 1H bearish bias.
- Entry Zone: 1.17010–1.17060 (within the FVG, around the 61.8% OTE level)
- Confirmation: 5-minute or 15-minute bearish displacement after touching the zone; prior BSL sweep is a plus
- Stop Loss: Above 1.17130 (above the 4H OB, full setup invalidation)
- Target 1: 1.16826 (session low — partial close)
- Target 2: 1.16775 (April 28 low)
- Target 3: 1.16692 (April 23 swing low — primary institutional target)
- Estimated RR: 1:3.5 to 1:5 depending on entry precision
- Best Window: London open tomorrow (07:00–09:00 UTC) or any Asian session spike into supply
Setup 2: Short from Near-Term Bounce (Immediate Scalp)
Price is currently at 1.16861, approaching the 1.16826 session low. A brief bounce to the 1.16880–1.16910 area — filling the immediate 5-minute FVG — provides a lower-risk scalp entry.
- Entry: 1.16890–1.16910 (after a 5-minute close shows rejection)
- Stop: Above 1.16950
- Target: 1.16826 → 1.16775
- RR: 1:2
Setup 3: Long from SSL Sweep at 1.16692 (Counter-Trend)
If bearish pressure continues and price sweeps below the critical 1.16692 swing low, a counter-trend scalp becomes viable on the basis of a liquidity grab below that SSL cluster. This would only be considered after a 5-minute close back above 1.16692 following the sweep.
- Entry: 1.16680–1.16695 (after sweep and bullish reclaim)
- Stop: Below 1.16640
- Target: 1.16826 → 1.16880
- RR: 1:2.5
- Note: This is strictly counter-trend. The macro bias remains bearish and any long should be sized down and closed at the first target.
Summary and Bias
EURUSD is operating within a clean bearish structure from the April 17 high. Today’s session has produced a textbook corrective rally — precisely to the 61.8% OTE level and the base of the 4H FVG — followed by rejection and a return to the lows. The 1.16692 April 23 swing low is the next logical draw for institutional sell-side liquidity. The clearest trade setup remains a short from the 1.17000–1.17060 zone during the next killzone, with that swing low as the primary target.
Related Forex Analysis
Compare with eurusd previous outlook, gold daily outlook, GBPUSD daily outlook, and USDCHF daily outlook.
