1. EURUSD Weekly Outlook May 11–15, 2026 — Euro Targets 1.1850 as USD Weakness Persists
The EURUSD weekly outlook for May 11–15, 2026 is bullish. The Euro closed last week at 1.17852 — near the weekly high of 1.17967 and the strongest weekly close in over a year. The six-week bullish trend from the 1.14432 low has been consistent and orderly, with each successive week printing higher-highs and higher-lows. For the week of May 11–15, the EURUSD price forecast targets a breakout above the 1.17967 weekly high toward the 1.18492 prior resistance level and ultimately the 1.1900 psychological handle.
The macro backdrop supporting this EURUSD weekly outlook remains USD weakness driven by markets reassessing the Federal Reserve’s rate path following several weeks of softer US data. The Euro has benefited from Eurozone resilience and hawkish ECB commentary. From an ICT perspective, the weekly structure shows consistent bullish order flow — buy-side liquidity at 1.17967 and 1.18492 are the institutional targets for the coming week.
2. Weekly Market Structure — Higher Timeframe Analysis
The EURUSD weekly chart over the past six weeks tells a clear bullish story. Six weeks ago the pair closed at 1.15222 off a low of 1.14432. Five weeks ago: close 1.17250. Four weeks ago: close 1.17638 off a high of 1.18492 (the prior weekly high target). Three weeks ago: close 1.17186. Two weeks ago (May 4): close 1.17212 after a high of 1.17852. Last week (May 5–9): open 1.17478, high 1.17967, low 1.16766, close 1.17852.
The daily chart for the week of May 5–9 shows Monday’s spike to the daily low at 1.16810 (a stop hunt below prior support) followed by a strong recovery. Wednesday’s candle was the weekly turning point — open 1.16924, high 1.17967 — a 104-pip bullish candle that swept all sell-side liquidity and established the week’s high. Friday closed at 1.17852, only 11 pips below the weekly high, confirming strong institutional demand into the close.
| Week | Open | High | Low | Close | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14–18 | 1.16666 | 1.18492 | 1.16640 | 1.17638 | Bullish (ATH run) |
| Apr 21–25 | 1.17408 | 1.17911 | 1.16692 | 1.17186 | Neutral pullback |
| Apr 28–May 2 | 1.16999 | 1.17852 | 1.16551 | 1.17212 | Neutral/Bullish |
| May 5–9 | 1.17478 | 1.17967 | 1.16766 | 1.17852 | Bullish (strong close) |
| May 11–15 Forecast | 1.17852+ | 1.18492 target | 1.17232 support | TBD | Bullish |
3. Key ICT/SMC Levels for the Week — Order Blocks, FVGs and Liquidity
- Weekly Bullish OB: 1.16640–1.16999 — the base of the April 14 week candle; the macro demand zone that has driven the past 6 weeks of EURUSD buying
- Daily Bullish OB: 1.17224–1.17282 — Thursday and Friday’s daily lows this week; this is the first pullback buy zone for May 11
- Weekly Resistance / Bearish OB: 1.17967–1.18492 — last week’s high to the prior weekly ATH zone; this supply area must be overcome for further upside
- Fair Value Gap: 1.16917–1.17136 — the 4H FVG left by Wednesday’s explosive candle; partially filled by Thursday’s low at 1.17224
- Buy-Side Liquidity: 1.17967 (last week’s high) and 1.18492 (prior weekly high) — the institutional BSL targets for this week
- Sell-Side Liquidity: 1.17232 (this week’s daily low) and 1.16766 (weekly low) — pools below current price
4. EURUSD Price Forecast May 11–15, 2026 — Bullish, Bearish and Neutral Scenarios
- Bullish Case: EURUSD opens Monday above 1.17852 and pushes through the 1.17967 weekly high in the London session. This triggers a run toward 1.18492 (the prior weekly high from the April 14 week) as buy-side liquidity is swept. A weekly close above 1.18492 opens the path to 1.1900 and potentially 1.2000 over the coming weeks. Primary catalyst: softer US CPI on Tuesday (May 13) and continued dovish Fed repricing.
- Bearish Case: A bullish surprise in US CPI or strong retail data strengthens USD. EURUSD fails at 1.17967 and prints a bearish daily rejection. A daily close below 1.17232 (Thursday’s low) opens a retest of the 1.16917–1.17000 4H FVG area. Below 1.16766 (last week’s low) signals a deeper correction to 1.16551 and the 1.16640 weekly OB.
- Neutral View: EURUSD consolidates the 1.17232–1.17967 range for the first half of the week ahead of Tuesday’s CPI. This “range week” scenario sees London open sweeping lows, NY session sweeping highs, before the CPI breaks the pair directionally. In this scenario, the CPI release on Tuesday May 13 is the decisive event of the week.
5. Key EURUSD Support and Resistance Levels — Week of May 11, 2026
| Level | Zone Type | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 1.18492 | Prior Weekly High / BSL | 4-week-ago weekly high; key breakout target |
| 1.17967 | Last Week’s High | Immediate resistance; break = continuation signal |
| 1.17852 | Last Week’s Close | Weekly opening level; key pivot for Monday |
| 1.17484 | Wednesday daily close | 4H support; minor pullback buy area |
| 1.17232–1.17282 | Daily OB support | Thursday/Friday lows — first pullback buy zone |
| 1.16917–1.17000 | 4H FVG / Structure | Daily FVG area; medium pullback support |
| 1.16766 | Last Week’s Low | Key weekly support; break = larger correction |
| 1.16551 | Prior Weekly Low | Multi-week support floor |
6. ICT Weekly Trading Setup — Entry, Stop-Loss and Targets
- Primary Setup — Monday/Tuesday Long: Wait for a London open pullback to 1.17500–1.17650 (below last week’s close, sweeping Asian session lows). Entry on 1H bullish CHoCH. Stop below 1.17232. T1: 1.17967 (last week’s high), T2: 1.18200, T3: 1.18492. R:R 1:3+.
- Post-CPI Long (Tuesday May 13): If CPI prints softer than expected, enter long on the first 15M pullback after the initial spike. Entry 1.17700–1.17900 area. Stop below 1.17400. Target 1.18492. High-probability momentum trade.
- Short Setup (CPI Surprise): If CPI beats expectations significantly, short the rejection at 1.17967 with a stop above 1.18200 and target 1.17232. Counter-trend — only valid with a strong CPI catalyst.
- Economic Events: Tuesday May 13: US CPI — the week’s primary mover. Thursday May 15: US Retail Sales and PPI. Eurozone GDP Flash (Friday May 15). Multiple Fed speakers throughout the week.
7. EURUSD Weekly Outlook May 11–15, 2026 — Conclusion
The EURUSD weekly outlook for May 11–15, 2026 remains firmly bullish based on the six-week trend structure, strong weekly close at 1.17852, and persistent USD weakness. The pair has posted five of the last six weeks as bullish closes, indicating sustained institutional Euro demand.
Key takeaways for EURUSD traders this week: The default bias is to buy pullbacks toward 1.17500–1.17650 targeting the 1.17967 breakout. Tuesday’s CPI is the pivotal event — a soft reading accelerates the move toward 1.18492 and 1.1900. The EURUSD weekly bullish thesis remains intact while price holds above the 1.16766 last week’s low on a daily closing basis.
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