AUDUSD Weekly Outlook May 5-9, 2026: Aussie Tests 0.7200 Resistance — RBA and NFP to Decide
News context: With commodity currency sentiment and broader dollar direction driving the market, AUDUSD remains a useful pair for tracking risk-sensitive flows.
AUDUSD closed the week strongly at 0.72024, recovering impressively from Thursday’s low of 0.71018 to post a near-100-pip Friday gain. The pair is now testing a key psychological resistance at 0.7200, a level that has acted as both support and resistance multiple times over recent months. The setup is explosive heading into next week’s dual catalysts.
Daily Timeframe: Bull Structure Intact, Premium Zone Resistance
The daily SMC labels show a sustained bullish BOS sequence building since the pair’s low near 0.6900-0.6800 (the major demand OBs far below). The recent 10-day price action demonstrates accumulation between 0.7100-0.7180 before Thursday’s retest of 0.7100 support and the explosive Friday recovery.
The PO3 daily configuration: Open 0.71951 | High 0.72280 | Low 0.71836 | Close 0.72024. The close in the upper portion of Friday’s range signals buyers remain in control. The 0.7200-0.7228 zone is now the immediate resistance. A clean 4H close above 0.7230 signals continuation toward 0.7300.
4-Hour Timeframe: Momentum Breakout Above 0.7180
The 4H chart shows a powerful impulse leg from 0.7100 to 0.7228. Thursday’s 0.7100 sweep was a classic ICT sell-side liquidity run that trapped late sellers before the sharp reversal higher. The current price at 0.7202 is inside a minor FVG between 0.7180 and 0.7200.
For bulls: hold above 0.7180 on any Monday pullback is critical. A bounce from 0.7180 during the London Open targets 0.7228 then 0.7260 then 0.7300. For bears: a break below 0.7150 on 4H closes signals the reversal was a false break, targeting 0.7100 then 0.7070.
RBA Is the Week’s Defining Moment
Tuesday’s RBA decision is the primary catalyst for AUDUSD. With the energy-driven inflation backdrop:
- Rate hike surprise: AUDUSD could spike 80-120 pips toward 0.7300 immediately
- Hold with hawkish guidance: Moderate bullish extension, pair grinds to 0.7250
- Dovish hold: Pair collapses back to 0.7100 for a retest
The Thursday Australia Trade Balance and Friday NFP are secondary catalysts.
| Level | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 0.7300 | Resistance | RBA-driven bull target |
| 0.7228 | Weekly High | Current supply ceiling |
| 0.7202 | Friday Close | Current price |
| 0.7180 | 4H FVG / Support | Bull/bear line |
| 0.7150 | Minor Support | Warning level |
| 0.7100-0.7102 | Weekly Low | Key demand zone |
| 0.6900-0.6800 | Major OB Demand | Ultimate support |
Weekly Bias: Bullish — RBA hawkish surprise targets 0.7300
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Compare with audusd previous outlook, USDJPY daily outlook, GBPJPY daily outlook, and FVG guide.
