EURJPY

Opening Context

EUR/JPY is trading at 185.10304, positioned below the weekly open of 185.31024, which signals potential distribution pressure or an intermediate manipulation leg lower within a broader structure. The pair sits in the discount zone (below the 50% equilibrium at 185.31456), creating a technical asymmetry favourable to buy-side liquidity mitigation. We are early in the week (starting 2026-06-15), and price action must navigate between the weekly low of 184.30151 and the weekly high of 186.32761. The Power of Three framework suggests the market is either completing an Accumulation phase at lower levels or mid-way through Manipulation, testing both sell-side (bearish order blocks and FVGs above) and buy-side (bullish order blocks below) liquidity pools. The weekly bias remains neutral pending confirmation of directional intent through a break of key structural levels.

Weekly Timeframe Bias

• Weekly Range & Equilibrium: The week has formed a 206.11-pip range (186.32761 – 184.30151). Price currently sits in discount, 20.56 pips below equilibrium, suggesting institutional buyers may be absorbing supply.
• Premium/Discount Context: Trading below the 50% level (185.31456) puts us in buy-side liquidity territory; the 25% discount floor stands at 184.80804. Any break below 184.80804 would extend the discount and open a run toward the previous week's low (PWL) of 183.85679.
• Volume Profile Imbalance: The weekly open at 185.31024 has been rejected lower, hinting at sell pressure, yet we have not confirmed a break of the weekly low. This indecision is typical of Manipulation within the AMD cycle.
• Liquidity Pools: The PWH at 185.98997 and current week high at 186.32761 represent sell-side resistance where institutional traders may have accumulated short positions or order book imbalances. The PWL at 183.85679 is a critical support level if distribution accelerates.

Daily Timeframe Structure

• Daily High/Low: The PDH sits at 185.38527 (very close to the weekly open), and the PDL is at 184.30151 (matching the current week low). This suggests today or recent daily candles are tightly wound around the weekly low.
• Order Block Recognition: A bearish order block at 184.78683–185.05960 sits directly below the daily high. This is a mitigation block that has likely been tested; if price returns here, it could become a rejection point for further downside or a trap for short sellers.
• Swing Structure: Recent swing highs (185.98997, 186.06283, 186.32761) cluster in the upper range, while recent lows (184.44551, 184.30151) show a compressed structure. This suggests continuation rejection pattern in play—lower highs being rejected, or lower lows being trapped.
• Bias Refinement: Daily timeframe is range-bound with slight bearish lean (price below weekly open), but without a confirmed break of the daily low (184.30151), the structure remains open.

4H Timeframe Structure

• Bullish FVGs (Accumulation Targets): The 185.68345–185.93572 FVG is unfilled buy-side liquidity. Mitigating this FVG would signal institutional accumulation and a reversal into a bullish displacement phase.
• Bearish FVGs (Supply Zones): Three distinct bearish FVGs sit at 184.85370–185.65283, 185.08385–185.67590, and 184.69412–184.93951. These represent imbalances where selling pressure is recorded. A reclaim back into these zones on lower volume suggests profit-taking or manipulation inversion.
• Bullish Order Blocks (Buy-Side Liquidity): At 184.42225–184.63929 and 184.90601–184.90887, these are institutional accumulation zones where buyers have stepped in historically. If price trades into these blocks on a wick or rejection, it confirms buy-side absorption.
• Bearish Order Blocks (Sell-Side Liquidity): At 185.88926–185.93995 and the broader 184.78683–185.05960, these represent sell-side order imbalances. The upper block near 185.88926 is a short-entry zone for informed traders; the lower block at 184.78683–185.05960 is a critical re-entry threshold if bears lose control.
• 4H Bias: Slightly bearish short-term, given price proximity to the bearish FVGs and the bearish order block just above current price (184.78683–185.05960). However, the proximity to bullish order blocks (184.42225–184.63929) below suggests downside is limited.

1H Timeframe Insight (Execution Refinement)

• Hourly Liquidity Hunting: On the 1H, price should be monitored for stops runs (shakeouts) into the bullish order blocks at 184.42225–184.63929 and 184.90601–184.90887. These are smart money liquidity grabs used to flush retail stops before reversal.
• FVG Mitigation Play: If a 1H candle closes inside the bullish FVG at 185.68345–185.93572, it signals institutional absorption and a potential daily reversal setup.
• Order Block Rejection: Rejection of the 1H price action at the bearish order block (184.78683–185.05960) with a bullish ChoCH (change of character) would be a high-confidence buy signal.
• Entry Timing: Watch for a BOS (break of structure) on the 1H below the recent swing low (184.30151) without closing below it, followed by a reclaim. This is a classic Judas swing setup where weak longs are shaken, then price reverses sharply.

Power of Three (AMD) — Weekly Cycle Position

• Accumulation Phase Indicator: The presence of unfilled bullish FVGs and tight order blocks in the discount zone suggests we are likely in late Accumulation or early Manipulation. Institutional buyers are testing buy-side liquidity at lower prices (184.42225–184.63929, 184.90601–184.90887).
• Manipulation Leg (Current): The rejection of the weekly open (185.31024) and the drift into discount is consistent with a Manipulation leg lower, designed to:
  • Flush weak longs at the PDH (185.38527).
  • Accumulate fresh buy-side liquidity at support levels.
  • Create a liquidity imbalance (FVGs and order blocks) for future directional moves.
• Distribution Outlook: If price fails to hold above 184.80804 (the 25% discount floor) or breaks below PWL (183.85679), the cycle may extend into Distribution (selling phase). Conversely, a reclaim above the weekly open (185.31024) with a close above 185.82108 (75% premium) would signal Distribution reversal back to Accumulation.
• Cycle Confirmation: Watch for a weekly close above 185.82108 to confirm Accumulation resumption, or a weekly close below 184.30151 to confirm Distribution downtrend.

Primary Trade Setup

Entry Model: Buy from Discount + Bullish Order Block Mitigation

Entry Zone: 184.42225–184.63929 (bullish order block). Wait for a 1H BOS and ChoCH above the recent swing low (184.44551) with volume confirmation.

Stop Loss: 184.20000 (below the weekly low of 184.30151 by ~10 pips; this is a hard ICT stop, honoring the structural low).

Targets:

• TP1 (Equilibrium Retest): 185.31456 (50% equilibrium; first FVG mitigation + weekly open reclaim).
• TP2 (Bullish FVG): 185.68345–185.93572 (full FVG mitigation; premium-zone entry for scalpers).
• TP3 (Weekly Premium): 185.82108 (75% premium; Power of Three confirmation that Accumulation has reversed into Distribution upward).

RR Potential: Entry at 184.52577 (midpoint of order block), Stop at 184.20000 = 32.58-pip stop. TP3 = 185.82108 – 184.52577 = 129.53 pips. RR ≈ 1:3.98 (excellent).

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Alternative Trade Setup

Entry Model: Short from Premium + Bearish FVG Supply Zone

Entry Zone: 185.68345–185.93572 (bullish FVG, but treated as supply rejection). Enter on a 1H rejection candle (wick into FVG, close below midpoint).

Stop Loss: 185.98997 (PWH; above this, the weekly bullish thesis invalidates).

Targets:

• TP1 (Bearish FVG Retest): 185.08385–185.65283 (nearest supply below; partial profit zone).
• TP2 (Discount Floor): 184.80804 (25% level; deeper FVG mitigation).
• TP3 (Bullish Order Block Trap): 184.42225–184.63929 (this is a liquidity grab for short sellers; many will exit here).

RR Potential: Entry at 185.80959 (midpoint of FVG), Stop at 185.98997 = 18.04-pip stop. TP3 = 185.80959 – 184.42225 = 138.73 pips. RR ≈ 1:7.68 (very high, but requires tight management).

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ICT & SMC Concepts in Play

• Order Block Mitigation: The bullish order blocks at 184.42225–184.63929 and 184.90601–184.90887 are institutional buy zones that have not yet been fully mitigated. A buy here is a mitigation trade, anticipating continuation upward.
• FVG Imbalance Engineering: The three bearish FVGs (184.85370–185.65283, 185.08385–185.67590, 184.69412–184.93951) represent supply imbalances where sellers have overwhelmed buyers. Smart money re-entries into these zones to "fill the gap" and create reversal candles.
• Premium vs. Discount Asymmetry: Trading in discount (below 185.31456) gives buy-side liquidity targets a structural advantage. Every push lower into discount attracts institutional accumulation, lowering the cost basis for large positions.
• Liquidity Engineering (Judas Swing): A wick below the weekly low (184.30151) on a single 1H or 4H candle, followed by a close well above it, is a textbook Judas swing—shaking out stops and trapping shorts before reversal.
• ChoCH (Change of Character): Any 1H break above the recent swing high of 184.53650 with increased volume would signal an inversion of polarity, converting prior resistance into support and confirming a buy-side break.
• MSS (Market Structure Shift): A BOS above 185.38527 (the PDH and recent swing high) would signal a macro shift from bearish to bullish structure, opening a path to the weekly high (186.32761) and beyond.

Key Levels for the Week

Risk Management & Final Outlook

1. Position Sizing: Use micro-lots or 0.5% risk per trade given the neutral bias and multiple FVG zones that could create whipsaws.
2. Stops Placement: Always place stops outside structural levels (not inside order blocks). A 10-pip buffer below the weekly low (184.30151) honors the macro structure.
3. Take-Profit Discipline: Lock in TP1 at 50% of position when reaching equilibrium (185.31456), trail the remaining 50% to TP2 or TP3 using a trailing stop at the most recent swing low.
4. Time-of-Week Context: We are early in the week; high-impact economic data (ECB, BoJ) could create gap fills or shakeouts. Avoid holding overnight until structural confirmation is clear.
5. Power of Three Confirmation: The Accumulation phase is likely underway (discount zone, unfilled bullish FVGs). A weekly close above 185.82108 before Friday would signal strong conviction for a bullish reversal into Distribution (upside).

Final Outlook: EUR/JPY is neutral-to-bullish on a structural basis. The discount zone, combined with unfilled bullish FVGs and order blocks, suggests institutional demand is building. However, the rejection of the weekly open and recent price action in bearish FVGs indicate Manipulation is active. The primary trade is a buy from 184.42225–184.63929 with a target to 185.82108 (Power of Three confirmation). Alternatively, shorts from 185.68345–185.93572 targeting the order block at 184.42225–184.63929 offer a high-RR scalp if supply rejects. Patience for 1H BOS + ChoCH is critical; do not force entry in the middle of FVG zones. By mid-week, a clear BOS above 185.38527 or below 184.30151 will confirm the directional bias for the weekly close.