EURJPY

Opening Context

EUR/JPY is trading at 175.83, positioned below the weekly open of 175.91 and notably in the discount zone (25th percentile at 175.78). This structural placement signals a potential manipulation phase within the weekly Power of Three cycle. The pair has reclaimed the discount region after testing the previous week's low near 175.09, suggesting accumulation interest at lower prices. With price trading sub-equilibrium (equilibrium sits at 176.49), buy-side liquidity is favored, and the weekly bias leans bullish pending a clean breach and mitigation of the bullish order blocks positioned at 175.92–176.10 and 175.77–176.07. The current week's range spans 175.07–176.59, a tight 152-pip envelope typical of consolidation before directional impulse.

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Weekly Timeframe Bias

• Structure: Price remains inside the prior week's range (PWH 177.92 | PWL 175.09), confirming no fresh directional commitment yet on the weekly close.
• Premium vs. Discount: At 175.83, we are 68 pips below equilibrium (176.49) and only 5 pips above the discount threshold (175.78), placing us at the lower boundary of buy-side interest.
• Weekly Open Rejection: Trading below the weekly open (175.91) suggests either early-week distribution or a setup for re-accumulation to reclaim the open and higher premium.
• Power of Three Implication: We are likely in the Manipulation phase—the weekly close below open could seed weak-hand capitulation, creating a liquidity vacuum that feeds into distribution phases higher or the final accumulation flush lower before markup.

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Daily Timeframe Structure

• Prior Day High/Low: PDH 175.99 | PDL 175.79. Current price (175.83) sits within this narrow daily range, reinforcing a consolidation narrative.
• Order Block Placement: Bullish order blocks at 175.92–176.10 and 175.77–176.07 are directly above and around price, positioning as natural buy-side liquidity pools. A breach above 176.10 would confirm daily impulsive intention.
• FVG Mitigation: Two significant bullish FVGs exist: 175.75–176.13 (contains the buy-side order blocks) and 177.34–177.57. The lower FVG is being actively traded into; mitigation and subsequent displacement would target the upper FVG as a secondary bias confirmation.
• Daily Bias: Mildly bullish contingent on order block mitigation; rejection below 175.79 (PDL) risks a deeper retracement into the discount toward 175.40–175.44 (recent swing lows).

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4H Timeframe Structure

• Immediate Resistance & Liquidity: The 4H shows a dense cluster of sell-side liquidity (bearish order blocks at 176.12–176.18 and 175.82–175.92). Note that the lower bearish block (175.82–175.92) overlaps significantly with bullish blocks, creating a mitigation zone where buy-side entries are most vulnerable to reversals.
• Bullish FVG Hierarchy: Three bullish FVGs are stacked: 175.75–176.13 (active), 177.34–177.57 (mid-term target), 178.47–178.85 (extended target). These form a liquidity ladder higher, assuming price respects the buy-side order block structure.
• Bearish FVG Overhang: Three bearish FVGs (177.30–177.88, 176.68–177.25, 176.65–177.23) span the upper half of the weekly range. These are displacement targets for liquidations of failed bullish breakouts and would serve as secondary distribution zones.
• 4H Momentum: Price has consolidated after a prior impulse to 176.59 (current week high). The lack of follow-through suggests indecision; a fresh 4H close above 176.18 would be the first bullish confirmation.

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1H Timeframe Insight

• Execution Zone: On the 1H, price oscillation around 175.83 provides real-time entry refinement. Watch for buy-side mitigation candles into 175.77–176.07 (bullish order block) with clean closes above 176.10 to signal 4H imbalance resolution.
• Liquidity Hunts: Recent swing lows at 175.40 and 175.44 remain unmitigated liquidity pools. If a 1H break below 175.79 occurs, a liquidity hunt toward 175.40 is probable before mean reversion higher.
• Entry Refinement: Ideal 1H buys form on rejection candles off the bullish order block (175.77–176.07) with wicks below followed by closes back into the block. Conversely, failure to hold 176.10 on close signals weakness toward PDL (175.79) and the discount floor (175.78).

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Power of Three (AMD) — Weekly Accumulation/Manipulation/Distribution Cycle

Current Phase: Manipulation (likely)

• Accumulation Narrative: The weekly close below open (175.91 > 175.83) after trading in the discount zone suggests weak-hand accumulation was active, but we have not yet seen institutional breakout buying.
• Manipulation Mechanics: Price is being held sub-equilibrium and below the weekly open, creating psychological pressure on retail longs and positioning for either:
  1. A deeper flush into 175.40–175.44 (liquidity hunt) before reversal impulse to premium, or
  2. A rejection and rapid BOS back into 176.10–176.59 range, triggering stopped shorts and commencing distribution.
• Distribution Setup: The bearish order block at 176.12–176.18 combined with three overlapping bearish FVGs (177.30–177.88, etc.) form a classic distribution ladder. If price reaches 177.92 (PWH), that entire zone becomes sell-side delivery territory.
• Weekly Bias Confirmation: A close above 176.49 (equilibrium) would signal transition into the Distribution phase, with premium (177.21) and PWH (177.92) as secondary targets.

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Primary Trade Setup — Bullish Bias

Entry Model: Buy-side order block mitigation into 175.77–176.07, with confirmation on a 1H close above 176.10 or a 4H impulsive candle closing within or above the block with positive momentum.

Entry Zone: 175.95–176.05 (bias toward upper half of the bullish order block)

Stop Loss: 175.70 (below the discount threshold at 175.78 and prior intraweek low mitigations; hard stop protects against liquidity flush narratives)

Targets:

• TP1: 176.49 (equilibrium — first mean reversion target; 54 pips risk)
• TP2: 177.21 (premium 75% — secondary distribution entry; 126 pips risk)
• TP3: 177.92 (PWH — weekly structure close; 197 pips risk)

RR Potential:

• TP1: 54 ÷ 25 = 2.16:1
• TP2: 126 ÷ 25 = 5.04:1
• TP3: 197 ÷ 25 = 7.88:1 (premium risk-to-reward for weekly structure completion)

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Alternative Trade Setup — Short Bias (Lower Probability)

Entry Model: Rejection of the bullish order block (failure to close above 176.10 on 4H or 1H) with a bearish engulfing or pin bar within the bullish FVG at 175.75–176.13, targeting the bearish order block at 175.82–175.92 for initial liquidation and then the unmitigated swing low at 175.40.

Entry Zone: 176.02–176.08 (top of bullish FVG; sell-side rejection entry)

Stop Loss: 176.20 (above the bearish order block at 176.12–176.18)

Targets:

• TP1: 175.82 (bearish order block bottom; 20 pips risk)
• TP2: 175.40 (unmitigated swing low liquidity pool; 68 pips risk)
• TP3: 175.09 (PWL; previous week low; 99 pips risk)

RR Potential:

• TP1: 20 ÷ 18 = 1.11:1
• TP2: 68 ÷ 18 = 3.78:1
• TP3: 99 ÷ 18 = 5.50:1

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ICT & SMC Concepts in Play

Liquidity Engineering & Order Flow: The dual order block structure (bullish at 175.77–176.07; bearish at 175.82–175.92) creates a liquidity inversion zone where institutional buyers and sellers converge. This is classic ICT order flow compression. The sweep into 175.09 (PWL) earlier in the week drew retail into short positions; a BOS back above 176.10 would trigger a short squeeze into the bullish FVG ladder.

Premium/Discount Narrative: Trading at 175.83 in the discount (25% level at 175.78) favors buy-side continuation. Equilibrium at 176.49 is the mean; rejection below equilibrium keeps the bias sub-optimal for longs. A clean close above equilibrium would confirm distribution phase initiation toward premium (177.21).

FVG Mitigation & Displacement: The active bullish FVG at 175.75–176.13 is nearly full; displacement above 176.13 into 177.34–177.57 is the next leg bias. Overlapping bearish FVGs at 177.30–177.88 and 176.68–177.25 signal seller interest at upper levels—textbook distribution layering.

BOS/ChoCH Mechanics: A break above 176.18 (top of the bearish order block) and sustained close above 176.10 constitutes a bullish BOS of the daily/4H structure. Conversely, a break below 175.78 (discount floor) signals a ChoCH (change of character) into deeper distribution or accumulation flush.

Power of Three MSS/Judas Swing: The recent swing high at 176.59 (current week high) followed by a retracement into discount is typical of a Judas swing—a false breakout that liquidates early buyers before the true impulse. If price reclaims 176.59 and closes above, it validates the Judas swing narrative and sets up continuation toward PWH.

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Key Levels for the Week

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Risk Management & Final Outlook

Position Sizing: Use a 1% per-trade risk model on the 175.70 stop loss. At a 25-pip stop for primary bullish setup, a 1% risk portfolio allows for a full 4 contracts on a $100k account. Scale into targets to lock in profit asymmetry.

Weekly Close Monitoring: The Friday close will be critical. Closing above 176.49 (equilibrium) cements bullish conviction for next week; a close below 175.91 (weekly open) extends the manipulation phase and raises probability of the alternative short bias.

Liquidity Pools & Unmitigated Levels:

• Bullish: 175.40, 175.44 (swing low caches) require mitigation before a clean 178+ impulse.
• Bearish: 177.76, 177.92 (prior swings / PWH) form supply if price extends.

Bias Summary: EUR/JPY is biased bullish on a weekly basis, contingent on order block mitigation and a breakout above 176.10 within the next 1–2 days. The Power of Three cycle is in Manipulation phase, with institutional accumulation likely seeding a transition into Distribution toward premium and PWH. The primary setup (long 175.95–176.05, TP1/2/3 at 176.49/177.21/177.92) offers asymmetric risk-to-reward (2.16:1 to 7.88:1). Monitor the daily close above PDH (175.99) and a 4H close above the bearish order block top (176.18) as confirmation filters. Stop loss at 175.70 is hard; scaling into targets is recommended to ride the full displacement impulse.