EURJPY

Opening Context

EUR/JPY is trading at 182.43, comfortably above the weekly open of 181.72, positioning price in a bullish displacement phase relative to the week's anchor. The pair is currently trading in the discount zone (below equilibrium at 183.28), which from an ICT perspective favors buy-side liquidity hunters and suggests institutional accumulation patterns remain in play. This week's structure reveals a classic Power of Three setup: we are in the manipulation phase, where recent highs have been tested (current week high 183.07 vs. prior week high 187.48) and lows have been mitigated (current week low 179.14 well below the prior week low of 181.41). The presence of multiple bullish FVGs and freshly formed bullish order blocks at 181.69–181.92 and 182.18–182.28 suggests smart money is positioning for a potential run into premium or a re-test of the 187.48 weekly high—consistent with the accumulation-to-distribution narrative.

Weekly Timeframe Bias

• Direction: Bullish bias intact; price remains above the weekly open (181.72) and has already tested and held the current week low (179.14), demonstrating rejection of lower levels.
• Range & Displacement: The weekly range spans 179.14 to 183.07 (4.93 pips). Price is 4.71 pips above the weekly open, confirming early bullish positioning within the week.
• Premium vs. Discount: At 182.43, EUR/JPY sits 0.85 pips below equilibrium (183.28), placing it squarely in the discount zone. This is textbook ICT—buy-side liquidity targets lie above current price toward equilibrium and premium (185.35).
• Power of Three Context: The week began in accumulation (above open, within range), entered manipulation (tested swing highs near 183.07, rejected lows at 179.14), and is now positioning for potential distribution into premium or a sweep of the PWH at 187.48.

Daily Timeframe Structure

• Daily High/Low: PDH 182.62 | PDL 181.97. The daily range is tight (0.65 pips), indicating consolidation and a lack of conviction directionally on the daily close.
• Relationship to Weekly: Price is sitting just 0.19 pips below the daily high (182.62), suggesting intraday resistance is forming. A break above 182.62 would establish a higher high on the daily and confirm continuation bias.
• Order Block Significance: The bullish order block at 182.18–182.28 aligns perfectly with the lower end of the daily range, marking a potential support zone if price pulls back. This is a mitigation block from prior institutional selling that has since reversed.
• FVG Landscape: The bearish FVG at 184.14–186.60 spans a large zone and represents mitigated liquidity (already filled once), while the overlapping bearish FVG at 184.29–184.74 signals old sell-side liquidity that may act as resistance on any push higher.

4H Timeframe Structure

• 4H Order Blocks & Entry Zones: The bullish order blocks at 181.69–181.92 and 182.18–182.28 are fresh accumulation zones. Current price at 182.43 is already above the second block, but any pullback into 182.18–182.28 would represent a clean BOS (Break of Structure) confirmation point for continuation longs.

• Bullish FVG Targets: Three bullish FVGs exist:

  • 186.67–187.14 (highest, near PWH 187.48)
  • 184.14–184.74 (mid-range)
  • 180.93–181.18 (support-side, already partially tested by the 179.14 swing low)

  These FVGs act as fair-value gaps to be filled by continuing bulls—classic SMC displacement targets.

• Bearish FVG Mitigation: The bearish FVGs at 184.14–186.60 and overlapping zones represent sell-side liquidity zones that may provide resistance or act as profit-taking zones for longer-term longs.

• Swing Dynamics: Recent swing highs (187.48, 186.69, 183.07) and recent swing lows (179.14, 181.31, 181.41) define the manipulation phase. A break above 183.07 (current week high) would constitute an MSS (Market Structure Shift) confirmation.

1H Timeframe Insight

• Execution Refinement: On the 1H, the bullish order block at 182.18–182.28 serves as the primary mitigation zone for short-term entries. Any pullback that respects this block (closing above it) sets up a clean entry for intraday continuation.
• Liquidity Pools: Buy-side liquidity lies at the PWL (181.41) and the current week low (179.14), making these ideal long-term stop-loss anchors. Sell-side liquidity pools reside at 183.07 (current week high), 184.74, and ultimately 187.48 (PWH).
• Judas Swing Setup: A false break below 182.18 followed by a reversal back above this block would constitute a Judas swing, trapping stops and setting up an aggressive continuation into 184.14–184.74 and beyond.

Power of Three (AMD) — Weekly Cycle Phase

• Accumulation (Week Open to Mid-Week): Established at 181.72. EUR/JPY quickly moved above this level, with smart money evident in the bullish order blocks at 181.69–181.92.
• Manipulation (Current Phase): Price is now mid-manipulation, oscillating between 181.97 (PDL) and 183.07 (current week high). The breakdown to 179.14 (below PWL 181.41) and recovery confirms manipulation intent—shaking out weak longs while accumulating further.
• Distribution (Imminent): Once price clears 183.07 and enters the bullish FVG at 184.14–184.74, distribution into premium (185.35+) or a potential spike to 187.48 (PWH) becomes likely. The bearish FVGs at 184.14–186.60 may serve as initial profit-taking zones for institutions.

Primary Trade Setup

Entry Model: Break and Retest (BOS) + Bullish Order Block Confirmation

Entry Zone: 182.18–182.28 (bullish order block) with confirmation above 182.62 (PDH) for a higher-high close on the daily. Aggressive entry at 182.43 (current price) if 1H closes above 182.62 with continuation wicks.

Stop Loss: 181.92 (upper boundary of 181.69–181.92 bullish order block; if breached, the mitigation block has failed and manipulation is targeting the 181.41 PWL or lower)

Targets:

• TP1: 183.28 (equilibrium) — 0.85 pips; quick pullback resistance
• TP2: 184.74 (upper bound of bullish FVG at 184.14–184.74) — 2.31 pips; fair-value gap fill
• TP3: 187.48 (PWH, distribution apex) — 5.05 pips; weekly structure target

RR Potential: Risk 0.36 pips (182.43 – 181.92 – 1H buffer) for a potential 5.05 pips (TP3). RR ≈ 14:1 on a full hold to TP3.

Alternative Trade Setup

Entry Model: Discount Zone Bounce (Equilibrium Pull)

Entry Zone: 181.69–181.92 (bullish order block) on a pullback. Place orders at 181.85 with a 1H chart trigger (close below 182.18, then reverse above it).

Stop Loss: 181.41 (PWL — break of this level signals a failed manipulation and potential shift to bearish bias)

Targets:

• TP1: 182.62 (PDH, daily resistance) — 0.77 pips
• TP2: 184.14 (lower bound of bullish FVG 184.14–184.74, and lower bound of bearish FVG 184.14–186.60) — 2.29 pips; confluence zone
• TP3: 186.67 (upper bullish FVG 186.67–187.14) — 4.82 pips; pre-PWH liquidity

RR Potential: Risk 0.44 pips (181.85 – 181.41) for 4.82 pips (TP3). RR ≈ 11:1 on full hold.

ICT & SMC Concepts in Play

• Liquidity Engineering: Smart money has established bullish order blocks at 181.69–181.92 and 182.18–182.28, marking zones of institutional accumulation. The breakdown to 179.14 (below the PWL of 181.41) appears designed to trigger sell-side stops and re-accumulate at lower levels—classic displacement with reversal.
• Premium vs. Discount: Price trading in discount (below equilibrium 183.28) ensures that buy-side targets (toward premium 185.35) remain fresh and unmitigated. This is the setup for an orderly institutional push into higher liquidity.
• MSS & BOS: A break above the current week high (183.07) with a 4H close above 184.14 would constitute both a market structure shift (confirming the uptrend) and a break of structure (invalidating recent resistance).
• Order Blocks & Mitigations: The bullish order blocks at 181.69–181.92 have been re-tested and mitigated, signaling acceptance. The bearish order blocks at 181.82–181.85 and 181.85–181.91 are old sell-side blocks that have already been broken and now serve as secondary support.
• FVG Fills: The bullish FVGs at 186.67–187.14, 184.14–184.74, and 180.93–181.18 are the intra-week displacement targets. Filling these gaps (rather than creating new ones) confirms institutional momentum.
• ChoCH (Change of Character): A 4H close above 186.69 (recent swing high) would establish a change of character and signal the end of accumulation and transition to full distribution into the PWH.

Key Levels for the Week

Risk Management & Final Outlook

Position Sizing: Given the 14:1 RR available on the primary setup, a 1% account risk allocation (stop at 181.92, entry 182.43) yields a potential 14% reward on TP3. This is highly attractive for a weekly trade structure.

Entry Timing: Favor entries on 1H closes above 182.62 (PDH) with volume confirmation, or a Judas swing reversal at 182.18–182.28 on the 1H. Avoid size entries below 181.92, as the mitigation block is the final bulwark against a shift to bearish structure.

Exit Strategy: Take TP1 (equilibrium 183.28) at 50% size for quick profit. Hold TP2 (184.74 FVG) at 25% size through Friday. Trail the final 25% toward 187.48 (PWH) using a 1H break above 186.69 (recent swing high) as a trailing-stop trigger.

Weekly Outlook: EUR/JPY remains strongly bullish on a weekly timeframe, currently in the manipulation phase of the Power of Three cycle. The establishment of fresh bullish order blocks, the retention of price above the weekly open, and the presence of multiple unmitigated bullish FVGs toward premium all align for a push into 187.48 by week's end. The discount-zone positioning ensures that any pullback to 181.69–182.28 is a high-probability entry, not a reversal signal.

Watch for: A close below 181.41 (PWL) on the 4H, which would invalidate bullish bias and shift focus to a retest of 179.14 or deeper. Until that occurs, treat every dip into the bullish order blocks as an institutional accumulation opportunity. The week is poised for a strong close into premium and the 187.48 PWH target.