AUDJPY Daily Outlook May 4, 2026 — Cross Weakens as RBA Decision Looms
1. Market Snapshot and Daily Bias
AUDJPY is trading at 112.568–112.645 as of the May 4 session, down approximately 48 pips from the daily open of 113.121. The session range is 112.374–113.328 — a 95-pip range that again showed the London Judas Swing pattern: a push to 113.328 in early London (sweeping Friday’s close level), followed by a persistent sell-off to 112.374 in the NY session. The pair is attempting a slight recovery but remains near the lower end of today’s range.
The daily bias is bearish. AUDJPY is under compounding pressure from two sources: AUD weakness (ahead of the RBA rate decision tomorrow, Tuesday May 5) and JPY strength (as post-BOJ policy repricing keeps the Yen supported). The cross is caught in a structural downturn after last week’s 320-pip crash from 114.445 to 111.324. The current 112.568 level sits inside the dead-cat bounce zone — the recovery from 111.324 to 113.328 is corrective, not a new uptrend.
The near-term bias is to sell rallies into 113.000–113.200 while price remains below the broken demand OB at 114.080–114.450 on the daily. Tomorrow’s RBA decision at 04:30 AEST (18:30 GMT) is the key catalyst — a rate cut would trigger a sharp AUD sell-off across all pairs, potentially driving AUDJPY through today’s low to the 111.930–111.324 support cluster.
2. Higher Timeframe Context — Daily and 4H Structure
The daily chart context is sobering for bulls. The pair had been building a clean bullish structure: 114.082 (Monday low) –> 113.923 (Tuesday low) — both holding the 114.00 support. Then Wednesday’s crash candle (open 114.116, high 114.445, low 111.324, close 112.789) obliterated the entire 6-week bullish structure in a single session. The current 112.568 price is in the middle of the crash candle’s range and represents no-man’s land structurally.
On the 4-hour chart, today’s first bar (00:00–04:00 GMT) opened at 113.121, pushed to 113.328 (sweeping Friday’s high), then the second bar (04:00–08:00 GMT) delivered the sell-off: open 113.116, high 113.328, low 112.374, close 112.966 — a massive 95-pip range bearish hammer. This candle creates a 4H bearish FVG between 112.374 and 112.966 that will be the contested zone for the next session. The 4H supply zone from London’s Judas Swing sits at 113.115–113.328 — this is the key resistance.
The subsequent 4H bars (12:00–20:00 GMT) show the pair in a declining range: 112.754–112.978 and 112.519–112.952 respectively. Each bar is making lower closes, confirming the 4H bearish delivery is intact. Volume on these bars (30,000–41,000) is elevated relative to the prior week’s average, indicating active institutional selling.
3. Intraday Price Action — 1-Hour and 15-Minute Analysis
The 1-hour chart shows a controlled distribution from the London high. After the London spike to 113.328 (04:00 GMT), price declined through: 113.041 (08:00 GMT) –> 112.947 (12:00 GMT) –> 112.833 (16:00 GMT) –> 112.858 (17:00 GMT, minor recovery) –> 112.642 (18:00 GMT) –> 112.568 (19:00 GMT). The 1H bearish OB at 112.884–112.964 (origin of the 16:00 GMT sell candle) is the key near-term resistance.
The 15-minute chart during the NY session shows declining momentum with each 15M bar failing to print a meaningful recovery. Key 15M levels: the 15M equal lows at 112.519–112.536 represent the near-term sell-side liquidity pool. A break below 112.519 opens the way to 112.374 (today’s low) and then 111.932 (last week’s Thursday low). The 15M structure shows three consecutive lower-close bars in the NY session — the selling pressure is consistent.
The ICT London Kill Zone (07:00–10:00 GMT) again produced the key directional move: the 113.328 spike followed by the 112.374 low. This 95-pip London Kill Zone reversal is the dominant structure for today and provides the framework for all intraday levels. The NY session is merely distributing within the London-established range.
4. 5-Minute Microstructure and Immediate Levels
The 5-minute chart shows AUDJPY consolidating tightly between 112.566–112.648 in the final NY session hours. The 5M structure is neutral with a bearish lean: equal lows at 112.566–112.568 represent the near-term sell-side liquidity. A 5M close below 112.566 targets 112.519 (15M equal lows) and then 112.374 (today’s low). The 5M bearish OB at 112.620–112.642 caps any minor recovery.
For macro context ahead of tomorrow’s RBA decision, intraday positioning is muted. Many institutional traders will be reducing exposure ahead of the binary RBA event. This creates a low-conviction environment on the 5M chart with tight ranges and low volume. The most significant opportunity for AUDJPY traders will come immediately after the RBA announcement — either a sharp continuation lower on a cut, or a relief bounce toward 113.200–113.300 on a hold.
5. Key Levels — Order Blocks, FVGs and Liquidity
| Level | Type | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 114.450–114.080 | Daily Bearish OB | Broken demand, now major weekly supply |
| 113.328–113.115 | 4H Supply / London High | Today’s Judas Swing zone, key resistance |
| 112.884–112.964 | 1H Bearish OB | Near-term intraday resistance |
| 112.620–112.648 | 5M Bearish OB | Immediate cap on micro bounces |
| 112.519–112.536 | 15M Equal Lows / SSL | Sell-side liquidity target |
| 112.374 | Daily Low | Key session support, SSL below |
| 111.932 | Prior Session Low | Next major support on breakdown |
| 111.324 | Last Week’s Low | Major weekly demand OB |
6. Trade Setup and RBA Risk
Pre-RBA Setup (Bearish) — Sell Bounce into 4H Supply: Before the RBA announcement, sell any rally into 113.050–113.115 with a 15M bearish CHoCH confirmation. Entry: 113.050–113.100. Stop: 113.200. Targets: T1 = 112.568 (today’s close), T2 = 112.374 (today’s low), T3 = 112.000. Risk/reward: 1:2.
Post-RBA Scenarios: If RBA cuts (25bps): AUD drops sharply, AUDJPY likely tests 111.932 and potentially 111.324 (last week’s low). Short at market on the cut announcement, target 111.500. If RBA holds: Relief bounce to 113.200–113.400, but the broader bearish structure remains — use the bounce to position short for the longer move to 111.000.
Fundamental Context: AUDJPY is driven by the carry trade dynamic: AUD is a high-yielder relative to JPY. When risk sentiment sours and BOJ raises rates (reducing the carry advantage), AUDJPY gets hit from both sides. The current environment — BOJ tightening + RBA potentially easing — is a maximum structural headwind for AUDJPY. The medium-term outlook is for continued weakness toward the 110.000–111.000 area unless the RBA explicitly signals a pause in the easing cycle. Treat any bounce above 113.50 as a premium gift for sellers.
