AUDUSD Daily Outlook May 4, 2026 — Aussie Pulls Back Ahead of RBA Decision
1. Market Snapshot and Daily Bias
AUDUSD opened the May 4 session at 0.72163 and has since declined to a session low of 0.71534 before a modest NY close recovery to the current 0.71638–0.71648. The day’s range of 67 pips represents a significant intraday retracement after last week’s strong recovery from the 0.71018 Thursday low to the 0.72280 Friday high. The pair is unwinding that recovery today, pulled lower by broad USD strength and pre-RBA positioning.
The daily bias is bearish for May 4. The ICT Power of Three model: Asia session consolidation at 0.72059–0.72204, London Open spike to 0.72204 (the daily Judas Swing high, sweeping Friday’s resistance area), then a controlled decline throughout the London and NY sessions to the 0.71534 low before a slight end-of-day recovery. This is a bearish PO3 day — open near highs, close near lows.
The broader context: AUDUSD last week swept the 0.71018 weekly low and recovered to 0.72280 on Friday — a 126-pip recovery in a single day. Today’s pullback to 0.71534 tests the sustainability of that recovery. Key question: was Friday’s bounce a new bullish leg, or a dead-cat bounce before continuation lower? The RBA decision tomorrow (Tuesday, 04:30 AEST) will likely answer this question definitively. Pre-RBA positioning is keeping AUD under pressure as traders price in a potential rate cut.
2. Higher Timeframe Context — Daily and 4H Structure
The daily chart shows a pair in a corrective recovery phase within a broader medium-term bearish structure. From the 0.7200 psychological level reached on Thursday-Friday, today’s pull back to 0.71534 tests the 0.71500–0.71540 daily demand OB — the zone from which Friday’s explosive recovery originated. A daily close above 0.71500 maintains the bullish reversal thesis; a daily close below 0.71500 on meaningful volume would signal the recovery is failing and the next leg targets 0.71018 and below.
The 4-hour chart reveals the session mechanics clearly. The overnight 4H bar (00:00–04:00 GMT) opened at 0.72163, reached the 0.72204 high, then declined to 0.72059 — the first sign of distribution at the 0.7220 supply. The London 4H bar (04:00–08:00 GMT) continued the decline to 0.71948. The critical NY session 4H bar (16:00–20:00 GMT): open 0.71878, high 0.71952, low 0.71534, close 0.71578 — a bearish hammer that swept the daily low and created a 4H bearish FVG between 0.71534 and 0.71786.
The 4H supply zone at 0.72059–0.72096 (today’s first 4H bar range) is the primary resistance. Below this, the intermediate resistance is the 0.71878–0.71950 zone (prior support now flipped supply). The pair needs to reclaim the 0.71878 4H level to shift the 4H structure back to bullish.
3. Intraday Price Action — 1-Hour and 15-Minute Analysis
The 1-hour chart shows a steady decline from the 0.72163 open. Critically, the 1H bar at 17:00 GMT produced the key move: open 0.71968, high 0.71969, low 0.71682, close 0.71849 — the most bearish 1H bar of the session with volume of 13,757 — nearly 3x the average 1H volume. This candle swept the prior session’s equal lows at 0.71682–0.71700 and created a 1H bearish FVG between 0.71682 and 0.71786.
The 15-minute chart shows the NY session structure: a series of lower highs — 0.71875 –> 0.71768 –> 0.71710 –> 0.71688 –> 0.71674. Each 15M bounce was capped lower than the prior, forming a descending channel from the 0.71875 London high. The 15M equal lows at 0.71534–0.71542 were swept by the 0.71534 daily low print. The subsequent recovery to 0.71654 shows a 15M bullish CHoCH — the first sign of short-term selling exhaustion.
The 15M bullish CHoCH above 0.71657 (confirmed on the last 15M bar) suggests a short-term recovery toward 0.71786–0.71850 before the next directional move. This is aligned with the common pattern of NY session lows being established in the 15:00–17:00 GMT window before a late-session recovery into the NY close (20:00 GMT).
4. 5-Minute Microstructure and Immediate Levels
The 5-minute chart shows the recovery from 0.71534 in progress. The 5M structure has printed a bullish CHoCH above 0.71643 on the most recent bar — the first higher high after the equal lows sweep. The 5M bullish OB at 0.71573–0.71601 is now the support floor for this recovery impulse. As long as price holds above 0.71573, the 5M target for the NY close bounce is 0.71688–0.71720.
For position traders, the key level to monitor overnight is 0.71534 — the daily low. A NY close above 0.71534 keeps the recovery attempt alive for a potential continuation tomorrow morning. A break and close below 0.71534 (particularly on the 4H basis) would signal the beginning of a new bearish leg toward the 0.71018 weekly low, especially if the RBA cuts rates tomorrow.
5. Key Levels — Order Blocks, FVGs and Liquidity
| Level | Type | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 0.72280 | Prior Week High / Supply | Friday’s high, major weekly resistance |
| 0.72059–0.72096 | 4H Supply OB | Today’s distribution zone, strong resistance |
| 0.71878–0.71950 | 1H Supply FVG | Intermediate resistance on bounce |
| 0.71682–0.71786 | 1H Bearish FVG | Key resistance above current price |
| 0.71638–0.71648 | Current Price | End-of-day consolidation |
| 0.71534 | Daily Low / Equal Lows | Critical support, SSL pool |
| 0.71500–0.71540 | Daily Demand OB | Strong demand base, RBA line in the sand |
| 0.71018 | Last Week’s Low | Major weekly demand OB |
6. Trade Setup and RBA Decision Impact
Pre-RBA Setup (Bearish) — Sell 1H FVG Recovery: Any recovery into the 0.71786–0.71878 zone with a 15M bearish CHoCH confirmation. Entry: 0.71800–0.71850. Stop: above 0.71960. Targets: T1 = 0.71638 (today’s close), T2 = 0.71534 (today’s low), T3 = 0.71350. Risk/reward: 1:2.5.
RBA Rate Cut Scenario (Bearish): If the RBA cuts 25bps (widely anticipated), AUDUSD will likely break below 0.71534 and target 0.71018. Short at market on the cut with a stop above 0.71540. Target: 0.71000–0.71018.
RBA Hold Scenario (Bullish): If the RBA holds rates (surprise hawkish), AUDUSD could stage a sharp recovery toward 0.72100–0.72200. Long at market on a hold decision, stop below 0.71600, target 0.72100.
Macro Context: AUDUSD is fundamentally driven by the AUD-USD interest rate differential and commodity prices (iron ore, copper, coal). Both factors are currently headwinds: the Fed is holding rates while the RBA is expected to cut, narrowing the yield differential in favor of USD. Iron ore prices have been declining on soft Chinese demand data. The medium-term outlook for AUDUSD is bearish toward 0.70000–0.7050 unless Chinese stimulus surprises to the upside or the RBA explicitly pauses its easing cycle. Treat any bounce to 0.7200–0.7230 as a sell-the-rally opportunity in the coming weeks.
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