AUDJPY Weekly Outlook May 5-9, 2026: RBA Decision and Yen Strength Create Perfect Storm
AUDJPY is the week’s most event-driven pair: it carries the dual burden of RBA rate decision (Tuesday) and the aftermath of a massive Yen-strengthening event that dropped the cross from 114.445 to 111.324 — a 320-pip crash on Thursday. The pair recovered to close Friday at 113.14, but significant structural damage remains.
Daily Timeframe: Broken Bullish Structure
Prior to Thursday’s collapse, AUDJPY had been holding cleanly above the 114.00-113.90 range. The violent Thursday sell-off broke that structure with a daily BOS below 113.50, creating a bearish CHoCH on the daily timeframe. The broken demand OB at 114.72-114.08 is now flipped to supply.
SMC demand zones below that offer high-probability long setups on a deeper correction:
- 109.88-108.78 — major daily OB
- 108.79-107.70 — confluent demand cluster
- 107.10-106.07 — deeper demand
4-Hour Timeframe: RBA as the Swing Catalyst
The 4H chart shows Friday’s recovery from 111.93 to 113.24 is a corrective bounce inside the supply zone at 113.00-113.50. The 4H structure remains bearish until a confirmed 4H close above 114.10 (the broken OB level).
Scenario A – RBA Raises Rates (Bullish AUD): A hawkish surprise could reverse the structure, pushing AUDJPY above 114.10 and targeting 114.72. Requires a clean 4H close above 114.10 to confirm.
Scenario B – RBA Holds or Cuts (Bearish AUD): Alongside ongoing JPY strength, AUDJPY revisits the 111.32 low and potentially extends to the 109.88 demand OB. This is the higher-probability path given current technical damage.
- Short: Sell at 113.10-113.50 (4H supply), stop 114.20, target 111.30 then 109.90
- Long (RBA hawkish surprise only): Buy break of 114.20 with retest, target 114.72 then 115.50
| Level | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 114.72-114.08 | Daily Broken OB | Flipped to supply |
| 113.50-113.10 | 4H Supply | Short entry zone |
| 113.14 | Friday Close | Current price |
| 111.93 | Friday Low | First support |
| 111.32 | Thursday Low | Key demand |
| 109.88-108.78 | Daily Demand OB | Major bull zone / bear target |
Weekly Bias: Bearish — RBA decision is the key risk event
