AUDUSD Daily Analysis 29th May 2026 — Dollar Sold Off, the Aussie Finally Remembered It Has Legs
News context: With commodity currency sentiment and broader dollar direction driving the market, AUDUSD remains a useful pair for tracking risk-sensitive flows.
AUDUSD Daily Analysis 29th May 2026: the Australian dollar spent most of the week looking unconvincing — then the PCE hit. Thursday swept the SSL to 0.70979 (a new multi-week low below the prior week’s structure), and Friday surged to 0.72006 on the soft PCE print, the highest level in two weeks. The AUDUSD SSL sweep 0.70979 Thursday recovery PCE Friday is textbook ICT: sweep the liquidity pool, reverse on the catalyst. The weekly candle closes near its high. The question now is whether the Aussie can build on this or whether the soft fundamental backdrop reclaims the driver’s seat.
For context: the prior week (18th-22nd May) made a low at 0.70796. Thursday’s sweep to 0.70979 did not reach that level — which means the weekly SSL at 0.70796 is still unswept. That gives us a support structure: 0.70796–0.70979 is a confluence demand zone. If price retraces there next week, it is a high-probability long setup.
Weekly Structure — Recovery From Multi-Week Lows
| Week | Open | High | Low | Close | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–15 May | 0.72233 | 0.72718 | 0.71399 | 0.71482 | Bearish |
| 18–22 May | 0.71528 | 0.71845 | 0.70796 | 0.71281 | Bearish — SSL sweep |
| 25–29 May | 0.71577 | 0.72006 | 0.70979 | 0.71920 | Bullish recovery — new WHH |
Current week made a new weekly high above the prior two weeks — 0.72006 vs 0.71845 (two weeks ago). That is a weekly BOS attempt. Close at 0.71920 confirms bull sentiment. AUD USD ICT bullish OB 0.71281 demand zone 29 May at the prior week’s close is the key retest level.
Daily Price Action — Sweep Then Surge
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 25 May | 0.71577 | 0.71822 | 0.71521 | 0.71754 | Bull recovery |
| Tue 26 May | 0.71720 | 0.71766 | 0.71554 | 0.71672 | Inside consolidation |
| Wed 27 May | 0.71698 | 0.71798 | 0.71238 | 0.71416 | Pullback — SSL approach |
| Thu 28 May | 0.71409 | 0.71698 | 0.70979 | 0.71628 | SSL sweep — reversal |
| Fri 29 May | 0.71644 | 0.72006 | 0.71493 | 0.71920 | PCE surge — weekly HOH |
Thursday swept to 0.70979 and reversed 65 points. Friday took price above Monday’s high — weekly BOS confirmed. The Thursday candle body (0.71409–0.71628) is the daily bullish OB. The prior week’s OB at 0.71281 is the deeper support. Both are valid entry zones for Monday retests.
ICT/SMC Framework — Bull Setup With Room to Run
- Daily Bias — Bullish — SSL swept 0.70979, weekly BOS at 0.72006
- Bullish OB zone (primary) — 0.71409–0.71628 — Thursday reversal candle
- Bullish OB zone (deep) — 0.71281–0.71493 — prior week close confluence
- Target 1 — 0.72006 — Fridays high / weekly BSL
- Target 2 — 0.72473 — prior BSL from 3 weeks ago
- Target 3 — 0.72777 — weekly HOH from early May
- Stop — 0.70960 — below Thursday SSL sweep
- Bull invalidation — Daily close below 0.71281
Intraday Trade Setup
| Setup | Entry Zone | Target 1 | Target 2 | Stop | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary OB long | 0.71409–0.71628 | 0.72006 | 0.72473 | 0.70960 | 1:3.0 |
| Deep OB long | 0.71281–0.71409 | 0.72006 | 0.72777 | 0.70960 | 1:4.0 |
(If Monday opens above 0.71920 and never looks back, the 0.72006 BSL gets swept early. That is fine — take the FVG retracement and enter 0.71628 with the same target. The deep OB is the high R:R setup, but it requires a larger intraweek pullback.)
Session Breakdown
Asian session: AUD is the Asia session currency. Sydney and Tokyo hours are the prime window. Any Asian session dip toward 0.71628–0.71628 that holds and produces a 1-hour engulf is an early long entry. Watch AUD/JPY correlation — if AUDJPY is holding bid, AUDUSD should follow.
London session (07:00–09:00 GMT): If price has not already broken above 0.72006 in Asia, the London killzone could provide the trigger. Alternatively, a London dip to the OB at 0.71409–0.71628 before running higher is the primary entry scenario. 15-minute engulf required for entry.
NY session (13:00–15:00 GMT): AUD has moderate sensitivity to US risk appetite. In a no-major-data week, NY session is technical. If London entry is running, manage toward 0.72006 (T1). Break above 0.72006 opens 0.72473 as the next target.
Economic Events
| Time (GMT) | Event | Result / Consensus | Impact on AUDUSD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 (Fri) | US Core PCE m/m | Soft | Strongly bullish — 36-pip surge to 0.72006 |
| Mon next week | Australian Building Approvals (est.) | — | Minor AUD impact |
| Tue next week | RBA-watch: no meeting scheduled | — | Background risk |
AUDUSD daily outlook 0.72006 weekly high Friday: the PCE catalyst cleared the way for what was already a technically constructive setup. AUDUSD price forecast PCE dollar sell-off 29 May 2026 points to continuation next week if the OB holds on any retest. The only fundamental risk to the bull case is a surprise RBA signal or a sharp reversal in risk sentiment.
Honest Risk Assessment
The AUDUSD bull case is well-supported by both technicals and the PCE catalyst. The invalidation is a daily close below 0.71281 — which would suggest the Thursday sweep was not a reversal but a brief bounce before the next leg lower toward 0.70796. That scenario has a 25% probability given the weekly close.
The Aussie is also sensitive to China macro data — any negative China news can push AUD lower fast regardless of technical setups. Keep that in your risk framework.
One percent risk maximum. OB entry at 0.71409. R:R to Target 1 is 3:1. That will do for a Friday night.
Related Forex Analysis
Compare with audusd previous outlook, USDJPY daily outlook, GBPJPY daily outlook, and FVG guide.
