AUDUSD Weekly Outlook 25th May 2026 – 29th May 2026 — Inside the Bearish OB
AUDUSD Weekly Outlook 25th May 2026 – 29th May 2026. The Aussie dollar is sitting inside a bearish order block and pretending it is not. After the HOH rejection from 0.72777 (week of 4th May), the pair sold off through a series of lower closes, swept SSL at 0.70796 on Monday 19th May, and has been bouncing between 0.71000 and 0.71730 ever since. This week opened at 0.71577. Monday: high 0.71730, low 0.71521. The range is 209 pips wide. That is not conviction — that is a pair searching for direction inside a supply zone.
Weekly Structure — Post-SSL Bounce Inside Supply
The bearish OB from the May 11 distribution phase spans 0.71528–0.71845 (the opening of May 11 week to the HOH of May 18 week). Current price at 0.71626 is inside that zone. This is where sellers came in the first time. The burden of proof is on the bulls to close above 0.71845 and make it stick.
AUDUSD ICT weekly distribution 0.71528 OB — that zone is the ceiling until broken with a confirmed weekly close. Below 0.71528 and the pair is back to testing the SSL at 0.70796.
The Levels That Matter This Week
- Weekly Bias — Neutral/bearish lean — inside bearish OB, rejection probable unless 0.71845 clears
- SSL base — 0.70796 — swept last week, deep support
- Current price — 0.71626 — Monday, inside OB zone
- Bearish OB zone — 0.71528–0.71845 — current price inside, supply present
- Bear target 1 — 0.71000 — base of recent recovery range
- Bear target 2 — 0.70796 — SSL revisit
- Bull invalidation level — Weekly close above 0.71845 — OB broken, next target 0.72024
- Bull target (if OB breaks) — 0.72024–0.72280 — prior week structure highs
ICT / SMC Framework
The SSL sweep at 0.70796 created the classic trap — retail shorts got squeezed, price bounced, and now trades back inside the distribution zone. The smart money sold the HOH at 0.72777, ran the stops below 0.71358, and now the pair is back at the scene of the crime. Aussie dollar bearish 0.70500 target next week — that level is the extended downside target if 0.70796 is convincingly broken.
The daily closes over the past week tell the story: 0.71073 (Mon) → 0.71528 (Tue) → 0.71492 (Wed) → 0.71281 (Thu) → 0.71626 (Mon this week). The high-to-high sequence is declining: 0.71768 → 0.71746 → 0.71686 → 0.71554 → 0.71730. Each rally attempt is capped lower than the last. That is distribution in motion.
AUD USD price outlook 25 May 2026 — the bias is bearish unless Thursday or Friday data changes the risk appetite picture. A soft US PCE (dollar weakens) could push price to 0.71845 and above. A hot PCE caps the bounce and returns to 0.71000.
Trade Setups for the Week
| Setup | Direction | Entry Zone | Target | Stop | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OB rejection sell | SHORT | 0.71730–0.71845 | 0.71000 | 0.71900 | ~3.2:1 |
| SSL revisit sell | SHORT | 0.71000 break + retest | 0.70796 | 0.71200 | ~2.0:1 |
| OB breakout buy | LONG (data-driven) | 0.71845 clear close | 0.72280 | 0.71650 | ~2.1:1 |
Key Economic Events
| Date | Event | AUD Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 25 May | US Memorial Day | Thin — AUD may drift in Asian session |
| Thu 28 May | US GDP | AU data flow | Risk sentiment drives AUD |
| Fri 29 May | US PCE Core | Key — soft PCE lifts risk assets and AUD |
AUDUSD weekly forecast May 25 2026 — the pair is a risk-sentiment proxy. A soft PCE on Friday lifts equities, lifts risk, and the Aussie squeezes through 0.71845. A hot PCE and 0.70796 is back on the radar. The bear case requires patience rather than urgency — the OB zone can hold current prices for days before resolving. Wait for the break, not the assumption.
We will be back at the London open Wednesday. The Aussie is at a crossroads, which is a polite way of saying it has not decided yet. The market will make that decision for us by Friday.
