AUDUSD Daily Analysis 25th May 2026 — Aussie Gaps Above Friday High, 0.7200 in the Frame
AUDUSD Daily Analysis 25th May 2026: the Aussie opened above Friday high. Friday closed at 0.71281. Monday opened at 0.71521 — a gap straight above the PDH of 0.71428 — and London extended it to 0.71730. The weekend FVG (0.71281–0.71521) is partially filled and will act as support on any pullback. The trend is up and the pair is acting accordingly.
Key Levels at a Glance
| Level | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Friday High (PDH) | 0.71428 | Cleared on gap-up open |
| Friday Low (PDL) | 0.71166 | Deep support |
| Friday Close (PDC) | 0.71281 | Weekend FVG base |
| Monday Open | 0.71521 | Gap above PDH |
| Monday HOD | 0.71730 | London session high |
| Monday LOD | 0.71521 | Open = intraday floor |
| Weekend FVG | 0.71281–0.71521 | Imbalance below, partial fill |
| 1H Bearish OB | 0.71585–0.71660 | London supply zone |
| 15m Demand | 0.71521–0.71577 | Gap fill / open consolidation |
| 15m Supply | 0.71700–0.71730 | London HOD resistance |
| BSL Target | 0.71800+ | Next buy-side cluster |
ICT/SMC Framework — Gap-Up Above PDH, FVG Below
This is a clean bullish expansion. AUDUSD BOS above 0.71428 gap open 25 May 2026 — Monday opened 100 pips above Friday high, skipping through the PDH with no touch. That creates a weekend FVG between 0.71281 and 0.71521 that acts as a gravity zone for any pullback. The FVG midpoint is at 0.71401. Until price retests below 0.71401, the gap is not truly “filled” in the ICT sense.
The 1H picture shows a bearish OB forming at 0.71585–0.71660 — this is where London sellers leaned into the rally. Two 1H candles closed bearish within that zone. It is not a strong rejection, but it is a pause. The 15m demand at 0.71521–0.71577 is the key intraday floor. That is the Monday open consolidation zone — twice tested, twice held.
AUD USD ICT demand zone 0.71521 intraday 25 May 2026 is where the clean long entries are. A pullback to that zone with a 15m bullish candle confirmation is the highest probability setup of the day. The target is the 15m supply at 0.71700–0.71730 first, then 0.71800 if HOD clears with volume.
Intraday Bias — Bullish Pullback Setup
- Daily Bias — Bullish — BOS above PDH confirmed
- 15m Demand — 0.71521–0.71577 — Monday open base, key entry
- 1H Bearish OB — 0.71585–0.71660 — resistance, not yet broken
- 15m Supply — 0.71700–0.71730 — HOD / first target
- Extension Target — 0.71800 — BSL above HOD
- Bear Invalidation — Below 0.71401 — FVG midpoint fills, structure weakens
Session Breakdown — AUD Running on London Momentum
No US session. AUD is being driven by risk sentiment and commodity prices. Oil is flat, Gold is up — that mix is supportive for AUD. Aussie dollar forecast 25 May 2026: the gap-up open confirms buyers are present. London took it 200 pips from the Monday open. The 15m demand at 0.71521–0.71577 has absorbed two dips without breaking.
The risk is a gap fill — a deeper pullback to 0.71401 or even 0.71281 (FVG base). That would not invalidate the weekly bull thesis but would be a painful intraday reversal. Size down in thin markets. The gap fill at 0.71281 would be a gift entry for the weekly continuation, but do not assume it comes today.
Economic Events — Week Ahead
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 25 May | US Memorial Day | No NY volume |
| Tue 27 May | Australia Construction Work Done Q1 | Low |
| Wed 27 May | AU Monthly CPI Indicator | High — AUD mover |
| Thu 29 May | US GDP Q1 revised | Medium for AUD/USD |
| Fri 30 May | AU PPI, US PCE | High — dual catalyst |
Wednesday AU CPI is the domestic catalyst. If inflation is sticky, RBA rate cut bets fade and AUDUSD squeezes higher. If CPI misses, the pair could pull back to fill the weekend FVG. The level to watch is 0.71521. Hold it = bullish. Break it = fill the gap.
Trade Setup Summary
- Long Setup — Pullback to 0.71521–0.71577 — 15m demand entry
- Target 1 — 0.71700–0.71730 — HOD / 15m supply
- Target 2 — 0.71800 — BSL extension
- Stop — 0.71450 — below Monday open structure
- Short Setup — Only below 0.71401 — FVG fill play
- Short Target — 0.71281 — FVG base
AUD is one of the cleaner setups this week. Gap-up above Friday high. Demand zone holding. CPI Wednesday to confirm or deny the trend. Pull it back to 0.71521, confirm the 15m candle, enter long. If it does not pull back and just runs — let it go. There will be another entry. Chasing HOD on thin Monday liquidity is how retail traders donate. We will be back at the London open Wednesday for the real follow-through.
