EURUSD Daily Analysis 29th May 2026 — SSL Swept, Recovery Holds
EURUSD Daily Analysis 29th May 2026: Thursday handed traders a sharp lesson in patience. Price swept the week’s low at 1.15864, shook out the weak longs, then closed the day at 1.16497. Classic SSL raid. The smart money took the liquidity and walked back up. Today opens at 1.16522 with the same playbook still running.
Thursday Sweep — What Actually Happened
The bears got their moment. EURUSD printed 1.15864 intraday — the weekly SSL sitting below the weeks opening. Then the tape reversed. Fast. Closed 1.16497. That close is 633 pips off the low. Anyone short into the close is now in pain.
The EURUSD SSL sweep 1.15864 recovery bullish Friday 29 May is the structural event of the week. It confirms demand is still present below 1.16000. The question today is whether that demand holds into the PCE print.
- Daily Bias — Cautious Bullish — post-SSL sweep recovery
- Bearish OB resistance — 1.16600–1.16766 — Tuesday high zone
- OB demand zone — 1.16082–1.16258 — key floor today
- Target 1 — 1.16615 — Thursdays close and next BSL
- Target 2 — 1.16766 — Tuesday HOH
- Stop — 1.15864 — below the sweep low
ICT/SMC Framework — The Setup
The weekly structure remains bullish from the April BOS above 1.14994. This week, price distributed into the 1.16766 high on Tuesday, then pulled back to sweep the SSL at 1.15864. That sweep is the rebalancing act — clearing the retail sell stops, refilling the institutional order book, setting up the next displacement.
The Euro dollar OB support 1.16082 demand zone 29 May 2026 is the level to watch. It marks the base of the Thursday recovery candle. As long as price holds above 1.16082, the bull thesis survives. A break below it invalidates the CHoCH and puts 1.15700 back in play.
The 4H chart has been bearish all week — lower highs and lower lows into Thursdays sweep. Today opening candle will tell us whether the 4H is beginning a reversal or merely in a dead-cat phase. Watch the first 4H close above 1.16600 as the CHoCH confirmation.
| Level | Zone | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 1.16766 | Bearish OB | Tuesday high — hard resistance |
| 1.16615 | BSL | First target — Thursdays close |
| 1.16522 | Current price | Today open |
| 1.16258 | OB top | Demand zone upper edge |
| 1.16082 | OB base | Must hold — bull invalidation below |
| 1.15864 | SSL swept | Thursdays low — stop level |
PCE Data — The Wildcard
Core PCE m/m drops at 13:30 GMT. Consensus is 0.2%. This is the Feds preferred inflation measure. The market is pricing dollar weakness. A soft reading confirms that. A hot print — 0.3% or above — reverses the entire weeks narrative and puts 1.15864 under threat again.
EURUSD ICT daily analysis 29 May 2026 cannot ignore the macro calendar. Positions going into PCE are bets on the data, not on the chart. Size accordingly.
- 13:30 GMT — US Core PCE m/m — consensus 0.2%
- 13:30 GMT — US Personal Income and Spending
- 14:45 GMT — Chicago PMI
- 15:00 GMT — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final
The Trade Plan
Bias is cautiously bullish. The SSL sweep printed. The recovery was sharp. Longs from the OB zone (1.16082–1.16258) targeting 1.16615 carry a 2.0+ R:R. But Friday with PCE pending is not a day for aggression.
If price pulls back into 1.16082–1.16258 before the data, that is the entry window. If it gaps higher and sits above 1.16500, the R:R shrinks to irrelevance. Let it come to you — the OB always gets retested. (Except when you enter short. Then it never does.)
EUR USD price forecast 29 May 2026: cautious long from OB, target 1.16615, hard stop 1.15864. No chasing above 1.16600 ahead of PCE. Weekly close above 1.16497 confirms bullish structure.
PCE at 13:30. We will know by 14:00 whether this week ends on a note of redemption or a second helping of 1.15864. Bring the aspirin either way.
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