USDCHF Daily Analysis 29th May 2026 — 23 Pips From the Target
News context: With dollar positioning and safe-haven flows shaping the landscape, USDCHF remains a key pair to watch for liquidity-driven moves.
USDCHF Daily Analysis 29th May 2026: Thursday rejected the bearish OB at 0.78994, closed 0.78405. Todays early low has already printed 0.78310. The SSL target at 0.78082 is 23 pips below the current low. This trade may close today on the PCE print.
OB Rejection — The Week in One Trade
The USDCHF approaching 0.78082 SSL target Friday 29 May 2026: the week began with an OB rejection at 0.78994 and has been walking lower ever since. Today early L at 0.78310. The SSL at 0.78082 marks the prior weekly low — a pool of sell-side liquidity that the market has been targeting all week.
- Daily Bias — Bearish — OB rejection confirmed, approaching SSL
- Bearish OB — 0.78900–0.78994 — Thursday rejection zone
- Today early low — 0.78310 — 23 pips from target
- SSL target — 0.78082 — primary weekly objective
- Target 2 — 0.77684 — next daily SSL pool
- Stop — 0.79100 — above OB zone
ICT/SMC Framework
The weekly structure is clear. Bearish OB at 0.78900–0.78994 has rejected price twice this week. The daily chart is making lower highs and lower lows from the 0.79000 area. The SSL at 0.78082 is the prior weeks low — institutional order flow has been targeting it since Monday.
The Swiss franc bearish weekly close 0.78388 29 May 2026: Thursday closed 0.78405. Today has already printed 0.78310. The weekly close below 0.78388 would be the lowest weekly close since early April. That is not a reversal candle — that is continuation.
The 4H chart: lower highs from 0.78994 through Thursdays afternoon rejection. Today early trading confirms the 4H bearish sequence intact. No CHoCH signal. No demand above 0.78082 that would suggest a meaningful bounce.
| Level | Zone | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 0.78994 | OB top | Thursday rejection — hard resistance |
| 0.78900 | OB base | Distribution zone lower edge |
| 0.78405 | Thursday close | Prior session resistance |
| 0.78310 | Today early low | 23 pips from SSL target |
| 0.78082 | SSL target | Primary objective — prior week low |
| 0.77684 | Target 2 | Next daily SSL pool |
| 0.79100 | Stop | Above OB — hard exit |
PCE and the USDCHF Setup
The USDCHF ICT bearish continuation 29 May 2026: the PCE print at 13:30 GMT is the catalyst. Soft PCE = dollar weakness = USDCHF to 0.78082 today. Hot PCE = dollar strength = USDCHF bounces toward 0.78500 before resuming lower. Either way, the weekly structure is bearish. The target is 0.78082.
- Base case — Soft PCE drives USDCHF to 0.78082 today
- Hot PCE case — Bounce to 0.78500 — remains a sell from the OB zone
- Weekly close watch — Below 0.78388 = bearish weekly candle confirmed
The Trade Plan
Short bias maintained. Existing positions hold with stop 0.79100, target 0.78082 then 0.77684.
The USD CHF price forecast 29 May 2026: target 0.78082 on a PCE-driven move lower. If 0.78082 breaks, 0.77684 is the next destination. Weekly close below 0.78082 = extension to 0.77400 possible next week.
Twenty-three pips. Thursday was eighteen on AUDUSD. The market keeps making you watch the scoreboard. One of these targets gets taken today. The chart says it is this one.
PCE at 13:30 GMT. We will be back at the London open Monday. I will bring the analysis. You bring the aspirin — it has been that kind of week.
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