EURUSD Weekly Outlook 25th May 2026 – 29th May 2026 — The Floor Is Swept, Now What?
EURUSD Weekly Outlook 25th May 2026 – 29th May 2026. Last week the tape did exactly what smart money needed it to do: it swept sell-side liquidity at 1.15763, shook out the late shorts, and closed the week at 1.16023. Monday opened at 1.16394 — a gap above that close. That is not the behaviour of a pair in freefall. The smart money swept the floor and left. The question for this week is whether anyone shows up to buy the vacuum.
Monday is US Memorial Day. Tuesday is UK Spring Bank Holiday. This week opens with the volume of a ghost town, which suits the algorithms perfectly. (The market, apparently, does not observe public holidays. Neither does your margin call.)
Weekly Structure — SSL Cleared, Watching the Flip
Three weeks of context matter here.
The week of 11th May printed a HOH at 1.17878 before collapsing to close at 1.16252 — a bearish OB rejection. The week of 18th May continued the sell, sweeping the prior range lows at 1.15763 before recovering to close 1.16023. That SSL sweep is the key structural event. EURUSD ICT weekly CHoCH 1.15763 SSL cleared — that level is now the line in the sand.
Current week: opened 1.16394, high 1.16490, low 1.16296. Early doors. Thin liquidity. But the gap-up open above 1.16023 suggests accumulation rather than distribution.
The Levels That Matter This Week
- Weekly Bias — Cautiously bullish — SSL swept, gap-up open, conditional on 1.16618 close
- Bullish OB support — 1.15763–1.16023 — swept SSL zone, must hold for bull case
- Current price — 1.16388 — Monday open range
- First resistance — 1.16618 — prior week HOH, break-and-hold needed
- Bearish OB zone — 1.16999–1.17212 — weekly supply, caps upside target 1
- Target 1 (bull) — 1.16618 — first test, week needs to close above this
- Target 2 (bull) — 1.17212 — bearish OB midpoint, stretch target
- Bear invalidation trigger — Weekly close below 1.15763 — SSL re-broken, full reversal resumes
ICT / SMC Framework — PO3 Playing Out
The Power of Three sequence on the weekly: Accumulation (range formation May 11–18) → Manipulation (SSL sweep at 1.15763, Wednesday 21st May) → Euro dollar SSL swept bullish recovery 25 May — the Distribution phase begins if price can reclaim 1.16618 and hold.
The daily structure confirms the sequence. The daily swing lows are building higher since 1.15763: 1.15828 (Wed), 1.15883 (Thu), 1.16296 (Mon open low). Higher lows are the market whispering. Listen.
The bearish OB from the May 11 rejection sits between 1.16999 and 1.17212. That is not a destination this week — it is a ceiling to respect. The EUR USD price outlook 25 May 2026 is bullish only to the extent that price respects 1.15763 as support and builds above 1.16618.
Trade Setups for the Week
| Setup | Direction | Entry Zone | Target | Stop | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout continuation | LONG | 1.16394–1.16500 (open range) | 1.16618 | 1.16200 | ~2.0:1 |
| OB reclaim buy | LONG | 1.16023–1.16196 pullback | 1.16618 | 1.15720 | ~3.5:1 |
| Bearish OB fade | SHORT (Tier 2) | 1.16999–1.17100 | 1.16600 | 1.17250 | ~2.5:1 |
The Tier 2 short at the bearish OB is the counter-trend play. Don’t size it like it’s a conviction trade.
Key Economic Events — A Short But Loaded Week
| Date | Event | Expected Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 25 May | US Memorial Day | US markets closed — low volume entire session |
| Tue 26 May | UK Spring Bank Holiday | London thin — avoid entries during overlap |
| Wed 27 May | US Durable Goods Orders (preliminary) | USD volatility, watch 1.16618 reaction |
| Thu 28 May | ECB meeting minutes | US GDP Q1 2nd estimate | Jobless Claims | High impact EUR and USD — possible trend day |
| Fri 29 May | US PCE Price Index (Core) | Week-defining: core PCE drives Fed narrative |
Thursday and Friday are where this week lives or dies. The ECB minutes and US GDP second estimate on Thursday could move EURUSD 80–120 pips in either direction. Friday’s core PCE is the dominant event — if it prints hot, the dollar gets a bid and 1.15763 becomes a target again. If it misses, the bull case towards 1.16618 accelerates.
Monday and Tuesday are not trading days unless your definition of trading includes shouting into an empty room. EURUSD weekly forecast May 25 2026 — the real week starts Wednesday.
Risk Assessment
The bull case requires three things: 1.15763 holds as support, 1.16618 is reclaimed on a close, and the PCE does not shock to the upside. Remove any one of those and the recovery thesis evaporates. The SSL sweep is a necessary condition, not a sufficient one.
If price closes this week below 1.16023, the accumulation narrative fails. Below 1.15763 and we are back to square one, looking at 1.15000 as the next SSL pool. The market has a long memory for unfilled gaps.
We will be back at the London open Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday, the market will be doing its best impression of a sleeping cat — occasionally twitching, going nowhere. I’ll bring the levels; you bring the patience.
