EURUSD Weekly Outlook May 5-9, 2026: Euro Stalls at 1.1785 with NFP and Eurozone Retail Sales in Focus
News context: Ahead of fresh macro catalysts and shifting dollar sentiment, EURUSD remains in focus for traders watching directional continuation and liquidity reactions.
EURUSD closed the week at 1.17212 after touching a high of 1.17852 intraday on Friday — a level that repeatedly acts as a magnetic ceiling for the pair. The weekly candle shows a doji-like close: open 1.17306, high 1.17852, low 1.17156, close 1.17212. This indecision reflects the tug-of-war between sustained USD weakness and the Euro’s inability to break clearly above the 1.18 psychological barrier.
Daily Timeframe: CHoCH Confirms Structural Stall at 1.18
The daily SMC structure is nuanced. The pair printed a BOS above 1.1800 earlier in the cycle but registered a CHoCH back below 1.17 — a key signal that the market shifted order flow from bullish to neutral/bearish on the daily. The pair has been oscillating between 1.1655 (April swing low) and 1.1785 (recent high) for multiple weeks. This is classic ICT consolidation phase behavior: price hunting equal highs and equal lows before choosing direction.
The SMC daily demand OBs below — at 1.1500-1.1400 and 1.1200-1.1100 — are the true buy zones on a deeper correction. Current price at 1.1721 is inside a premium zone relative to the 1.16-1.18 range, making aggressive longs from here risky without a clear bullish catalyst.
4-Hour Timeframe: Ranging Structure with Supply at 1.1785
The 4H chart shows EURUSD trapped between 1.1655 demand and 1.1785 supply. The Friday 4H candle printed a clean bearish engulfing at the 1.1785 level, confirming institutional distribution at that zone. For bulls, a close above 1.1785 on a 4H basis opens the door to 1.1900-1.1950. For bears, a break below 1.1700 on a 4H close would confirm the bearish scenario, targeting the 1.1655 area and the 1.1615 ICT liquidity pool below.
Key ICT Setup: The 1.17 Equilibrium Play
The 1.1700 level is the equilibrium of the current 1.1655-1.1785 range. ICT traders should watch for:
- Long: Monday Asian session dip to 1.1700-1.1680, bullish CHoCH on 30M, target 1.1750 then 1.1785
- Short: Failure at 1.1750-1.1785 after a liquidity sweep, bearish CHoCH on 1H, target 1.1700 then 1.1655
Economic Catalysts This Week
- Thursday: Eurozone Retail Sales — a strong reading supports EUR bulls targeting 1.1800+
- Friday: US NFP — the major catalyst. A miss accelerates the EUR bull trend; a beat traps late buyers
| Level | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1900 | Bearish OB | NFP-driven bull target |
| 1.1785 | Supply / Weekly High | 4H distribution zone |
| 1.1750 | 4H Resistance | Intraweek pivot |
| 1.1720 | Current Close | Equilibrium |
| 1.1700 | Key Support | Buy zone |
| 1.1655 | Demand / Weekly Low | Strong buy zone |
| 1.1615 | Below-market Liquidity | Extended bear target |
Weekly Bias: Neutral — Range-bound 1.1655-1.1785 until catalyst
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