EURUSD Daily Analysis 29th May 2026 — PCE Did the Heavy Lifting. Now Watch the Pullback.
News context: Ahead of fresh macro catalysts and shifting dollar sentiment, EURUSD remains in focus for traders watching directional continuation and liquidity reactions.
EURUSD Daily Analysis 29th May 2026: the euro finished the week looking like it remembered it had somewhere to be. Soft US Core PCE data at 13:30 GMT was the starter’s pistol — price ran from 1.16430 to a session high of 1.16780, closing Friday at 1.16762. The weekly candle closes bullish. Daily structure has flipped from the EURUSD SSL sweep 1.15864 recovery bullish Friday 29 May that printed on Thursday. Two days in a row of higher lows and the smart money has declared its hand. Monday’s question is simple: do buyers defend the 1.16400 zone, or do we get one more dip to fill the OB before the leg toward 1.17?
Thursday was the real story. Price swept the SSL at 1.15864 — a 55-pip reach below Wednesday’s low — then reversed sharply into the New York close. That’s not a coincidence. That’s the big boys loading up before a catalyst event. The PCE print confirmed the thesis. Now we sit near the top of Friday’s range with a decision to make for Monday.
Weekly Structure — The Last Three Candles Say Enough
| Week | Open | High | Low | Close | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–15 May | 1.17524 | 1.17878 | 1.16170 | 1.16252 | Bearish reversal |
| 18–22 May | 1.16196 | 1.16618 | 1.15763 | 1.16023 | Bearish continuation |
| 25–29 May | 1.16394 | 1.16780 | 1.15864 | 1.16762 | Bullish recovery |
Two weeks of selling — including a weekly SSL sweep to 1.15763 — followed by a bullish close above the prior week’s high. Weekly structure is attempting a CHoCH. The Euro dollar OB support 1.16082 demand zone 29 May 2026 held as the weekly base. If Monday opens above 1.16400 and holds, the path toward 1.17 is open.
Daily Price Action — Five Sessions That Tell the Story
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 25 May | 1.16394 | 1.16528 | 1.16296 | 1.16433 | Bull recovery day |
| Tue 26 May | 1.16404 | 1.16452 | 1.16164 | 1.16317 | Inside pullback |
| Wed 27 May | 1.16286 | 1.16615 | 1.16222 | 1.16258 | Distribution wick |
| Thu 28 May | 1.16280 | 1.16614 | 1.15864 | 1.16497 | SSL sweep + reversal |
| Fri 29 May | 1.16522 | 1.16780 | 1.16250 | 1.16762 | PCE bull surge |
Thursday’s SSL sweep to 1.15864 followed by a close at 1.16497 is the setup that matters. That candle is the bullish OB. Price has since launched 280 pips off that low. The pattern: sweep, reverse, run. Classic PO3.
ICT/SMC Framework — Levels That Count
Daily bias is bullish. Weekly structure aligns. The HTF narrative is simple: two weeks of selling completed a premium-to-discount run, swept the weekly SSL at 1.15763 (week of 18th May) and 1.15864 (Thursday), and is now recovering from deep discount. EURUSD ICT daily analysis 29 May 2026 places the key reference points here:
- Daily Bias — Bullish — weekly SSL swept, structure recovering
- Bullish OB zone — 1.16082–1.16258 — Thursday reversal candle body
- FVG — 1.16400–1.16520 — Friday AM gap zone, potential retest Monday
- Resistance / BSL — 1.16780–1.17000 — Fridays high and round number
- Target 1 — 1.17000 — round number BSL
- Target 2 — 1.17852 — prior weekly high, unswept BSL
- Stop — 1.15850 — below Thursday SSL sweep
- Bull invalidation — Daily close below 1.16082
Intraday Trade Setup — Two Scenarios for Monday
| Setup | Entry Zone | Target 1 | Target 2 | Stop | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull OB retest (primary) | 1.16258–1.16400 | 1.17000 | 1.17852 | 1.15850 | 1:4.0 |
| Bull continuation (aggressive) | 1.16600–1.16700 | 1.17000 | 1.17500 | 1.16200 | 1:1.5 |
(The primary setup only triggers if Monday gives us a pullback. Chasing 1.16760 on the open is how you become the liquidity. Watch the level.)
Session Breakdown
Asian session (00:00–07:00 GMT): Expect consolidation in the 1.16400–1.16780 range. Asia rarely adds new information to a PCE-driven Friday move. Watch for any retest of the 1.16400–1.16520 FVG zone. A hold above 1.16400 is structurally positive for the London open.
London session (07:00–09:00 GMT): The killzone is the key. If London opens above 1.16520 and sweeps any Asian lows before recovering, that is the ideal long entry. The 1.16258–1.16400 OB/FVG confluence is the magnet for a sweep. Entry trigger: 15-minute bullish engulf off the OB zone. Entry 1.16400. Stop 1.15850. Target 1.17000.
NY session (13:00–15:00 GMT): No major US data scheduled for Monday. NY session becomes the push-through. If London entry holds, look to manage runners toward 1.17000. The round number will likely produce a reaction — take partials, move stop to break-even above 1.16700.
Economic Events — 29th May 2026
| Time (GMT) | Event | Result | Impact on EURUSD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 | US Core PCE Price Index m/m | SOFT (dollar-negative) | Strong bullish — +38 pips NY surge |
| 13:30 | US Personal Income and Spending m/m | In line | Neutral |
| 14:45 | Chicago PMI | — | Moderate |
| 15:00 | UoM Consumer Sentiment (Final) | — | Low |
The PCE print was the week’s defining event for EURUSD. Soft inflation data pulled dollar bulls off their positions and handed euro buyers a 38-pip gift in 30 minutes. Next week, the calendar reverts to lower-impact data — which gives the technical setup room to breathe. EUR USD price forecast 29 May 2026 points higher as long as 1.16082 holds on any Monday dip.
Honest Risk Assessment
The setup is clean but the entry is not here — not at 1.16760 after a 38-pip PCE surge. Wait for the OB retest. The bull thesis is invalidated on a daily close below 1.16082. That would suggest the Thursday SSL sweep was not a reversal but a continuation trap. R:R from the OB entry to Target 1 is 4:1 — worth the discipline of waiting for price to come to you.
End of week, end of month positioning could produce Monday gap risk in either direction. Size appropriately. One percent risk maximum on the OB entry.
We are back at the London open Monday. I will bring the analysis. You bring the patience — and resist the urge to buy the open just because Friday closed well.
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