GBPUSD Weekly Outlook 25th May 2026 – 29th May 2026 — Cable Builds the Case
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook 25th May 2026 – 29th May 2026. Cable swept sell-side liquidity at 1.33026 the week of 18th May, then spent the rest of the week clawing back to close at 1.34312. This week opened at 1.34590 and within the Monday session has already pushed to 1.34908. The recovery is not subtle. The tape is telling you something — whether you listen is another matter.
Two caveats before anyone touches the buy button: Monday is US Memorial Day and Tuesday is UK Spring Bank Holiday. Half the street is watching cricket. Volume is thin enough to trip on. Wait for Wednesday.
Weekly Structure — Recovery from SSL, Building Higher
The week of 11th May was the turning point — a 330-pip sell-off from 1.36536 to close at 1.33242. The week of 18th May swept the SSL at 1.33026 and recovered to 1.34312. This week: opened 1.34590, already at 1.34908. Daily structure confirms the pattern — higher lows every session since Monday 19th May: 1.33785, 1.33750, 1.33923, 1.34133, 1.34514.
Cable bullish CHoCH 1.34638 next week — that is the level. The prior week’s high. A daily and weekly close above 1.34638 confirms the structure shift.
The Levels That Matter This Week
- Weekly Bias — Cautiously bullish — SSL swept, higher lows building, target 1.35122
- Bullish OB base — 1.33026–1.33254 — swept SSL zone, institutional accumulation floor
- Current price — 1.34867 — Monday, approaching pivot
- Pivot level — 1.34638 — prior week HOH, daily close above = bullish
- Target 1 — 1.35000 — round-number BSL, first objective
- Target 2 — 1.35122 — prior week structure resistance
- Bearish OB supply — 1.35589–1.36003 — May 11 week opening range, heavy supply zone
- Stop for longs — 1.33700 — below Tuesday 19th May low, OB broken
ICT / SMC Framework
The PO3 sequence is identical to EURUSD: SSL swept, recovery open, now testing the first resistance. The bearish OB from the May 11 disaster sits at 1.35589–1.36003. That zone is not a target this week — it is a wall. Reaching 1.35000–1.35122 is the realistic bull case.
GBPUSD ICT weekly buy-side 1.35000 is the first BSL cluster. Stop clusters above round numbers are where the smart money wants to take this — enough retail is sat with stops just below 1.35000 to make the push worthwhile.
The daily order block base at 1.33923–1.34133 (Wednesday–Thursday last week) is valid support. Any pullback to that zone mid-week before the data events is an entry opportunity. GBP USD price outlook 25 May 2026 — the pair wants 1.35000. The question is whether PCE or GDP give the market a reason to reverse before it gets there.
Trade Setups for the Week
| Setup | Direction | Entry Zone | Target 1 | Target 2 | Stop | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Continuation from base | LONG | 1.34133–1.34385 pullback | 1.35000 | 1.35122 | 1.33900 | ~3.2:1 |
| Breakout confirmation | LONG | 1.34638 break + retest | 1.35200 | 1.35446 | 1.34400 | ~2.8:1 |
| OB supply fade | SHORT (Tier 2) | 1.35589–1.35750 | 1.35000 | 1.34638 | 1.35850 | ~2.4:1 |
Key Economic Events
| Date | Event | GBP Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 25 May | UK Spring Bank Holiday | London closed — thin volume |
| Tue 26 May | No major UK data | USD-driven moves may set direction |
| Wed 27 May | US Durable Goods | USD volatility knocks cable |
| Thu 28 May | US GDP Q1 2nd est. | Jobless Claims | USD dominant |
| Fri 29 May | US PCE Core | Week-defining — hot print caps cable at 1.34638 |
GBPUSD weekly forecast May 25 2026 — the data risk is mostly USD-side this week. UK calendar is light. Cable is at the mercy of whatever the Americans decide to do with their inflation print on Friday. A soft PCE and 1.35000 is on the table. A hot one and 1.34133 gets revisited.
We will be back for the London open Wednesday. The Bank of England gets the week off; the Federal Reserve does not. Funny how that works.
