USDCAD Daily Analysis 25th May 2026 — OB Retest Complete, Waiting on Wednesday Oil Data
USDCAD Daily Analysis 25th May 2026: USDCAD opened Monday at 1.37957 — slightly below Friday close of 1.38212 — and bounced off the bullish OB zone almost immediately. London pushed it back to 1.38207, essentially reclaiming the Friday close. The pair is coiling. No NY session today, no Canadian data until Wednesday. This is a holding pattern.
Key Levels at a Glance
| Level | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Friday High (PDH) | 1.38246 | Last session ceiling |
| Friday Low (PDL) | 1.37908 | Deep support |
| Friday Close (PDC) | 1.38212 | Gap reference |
| Monday Open | 1.37957 | Small gap down into OB |
| Monday HOD | 1.38207 | Reclaimed Friday close area |
| Monday LOD | 1.37957 | Open = intraday floor |
| 1H Bullish OB | 1.37981–1.38040 | Daily demand base |
| 15m Demand | 1.37957–1.37994 | Monday open consolidation |
| 15m Supply/HOD | 1.38207 | Session ceiling |
| Daily BSL | 1.38500+ | Next target above |
| PDL Support | 1.37908 | Key daily floor |
ICT/SMC Framework — OB Held, Structure Intact
The bullish order block at 1.37981–1.38040 is the key level here. USDCAD bullish OB 1.37981 daily retest 25 May 2026 — Monday open dropped straight into this OB and reversed. That is an OB mitigation and continuation play. Classic ICT setup. Price opened at 1.37957, tapped the OB, and London bought it back to 1.38207 within three 1H candles.
The 15m demand zone at 1.37957–1.37994 is now clearly defined — that is the Monday open structure, defended twice. As long as that holds, the intraday bias is long toward 1.38207 and potentially 1.38246 PDH.
The risk to the upside: USD CAD ICT price forecast 25 May 2026 has the next significant BSL cluster above 1.38500 — but getting there requires clearing 1.38246 PDH first. No NY volume today makes that a stretch. More likely USDCAD ranges between 1.37957 and 1.38246 until Wednesday when Canadian retail sales and US data give it direction.
Intraday Bias — Range Bound, Bullish Lean
- Daily Bias — Bullish — OB mitigation and hold confirmed
- 15m Demand — 1.37957–1.37994 — Monday open base, key support
- 15m Supply — 1.38207–1.38246 — HOD / PDH resistance
- 1H OB — 1.37981–1.38040 — anchor level
- Bear Trigger — Break below 1.37908 — PDL violated
- Range — 1.37957–1.38246 most likely today
Session Breakdown — Range Day Expected
No US session. No Canadian oil data. USDCAD is driven by two things: USD sentiment and crude oil. Both catalysts are absent today. USDCAD intraday support 1.37957 Memorial Day 2026 is the floor. London already tested it and bought it. There is no reason for a meaningful directional move before Wednesday.
The OB at 1.37981–1.38040 has now been mitigated. Price should respect it as support on any pullback. A close today above 1.38100 keeps the weekly bullish structure intact. A close below 1.37908 (PDL) would shift the bias back to neutral pending Wednesday data.
Economic Events — Week Ahead
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 25 May | US Memorial Day | No NY session |
| Wed 27 May | US Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed | Medium |
| Thu 29 May | US GDP Q1 Revised, CAD current account | Medium–High |
| Fri 30 May | US PCE, CAD GDP | High — dual catalyst |
Friday is a live grenade for USDCAD. US PCE and Canadian GDP print on the same day. If US PCE beats and Canadian GDP misses, USDCAD could run 150+ pips. Position accordingly heading into the week.
Trade Setup Summary
- Long Setup — Hold above 1.37994 — OB mitigation long thesis
- Target 1 — 1.38207 — session HOD
- Target 2 — 1.38246 — PDH clearance
- Stop — 1.37900 — below PDL
- Short Only — Below 1.37900 — structural break required
- Best Trade — Wait for Wednesday data before adding size
USDCAD is a waiting game today. The OB delivered. Now we sit on the position and let the market tell us whether it wants 1.38500 or 1.37500 when the real players come back Wednesday. Patience. The calendar rewards it this week.
