XAUUSD Daily Analysis 25th May 2026 — Gold Gaps Up Into Thin Air, Comex Closed
XAUUSD Daily Analysis 25th May 2026: Gold did what Gold does on a US bank holiday — it moved. Friday closed at 4509.69. Monday opened at 4548.91, a gap straight through the weekend FVG, and London pushed it to 4580.21. Comex is closed today. No futures volume, no real commitment. This is London spot running stops on thin books. The real test comes Wednesday when the big money shows up.
Key Levels at a Glance
| Level | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Friday High (PDH) | 4536.82 | Prior session ceiling |
| Friday Low (PDL) | 4491.93 | Prior session floor |
| Friday Close (PDC) | 4509.69 | Weekend FVG base |
| Monday Open | 4548.91 | Gap above PDH |
| Monday HOD | 4580.21 | London session high |
| Monday LOD | 4548.91 | Open = intraday floor |
| Weekend FVG | 4509.69–4548.91 | Imbalance below, partially filled |
| 1H Bearish OB | 4566–4580 | London session supply forming |
| 15m Demand | 4550–4553 | Post-gap consolidation base |
| 15m Supply | 4563–4575 | London rally ceiling |
| Weekly BSL | 4600+ | Next major buy-side pool |
ICT/SMC Framework — Mind the Gap
Gold price ICT premium array 4566 Memorial Day 2026 — London opened Gold into a premium. The weekend FVG (4509–4548) was the imbalance left from Friday close to Monday open. Price gapped straight through the midpoint at 4529 without touching it. The FVG is partially filled but the lower half (4509–4529) remains open. That is a magnet for a future pullback.
The 1H bearish OB forming at 4566–4580 is where London sellers have started to lean. Price ran to 4580.21 — touching the top of that supply — and has since pulled back to compress around 4550–4560. XAUUSD intraday FVG 4509 fill target 25 May 2026 is the bearish case: if 4548 gives way, the unfilled portion of the weekend gap becomes the target, then 4509.69 PDC.
The 15m demand at 4550–4553 is the current support. Two bounces off it in the London session. A third rejection here and we test 4548 then the gap. A hold and break above 4575 sets up a run at 4600 on very thin volume — possible but reckless to chase without Comex participation.
Intraday Bias — Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
- Daily Bias — Caution — running in premium on Comex holiday
- 1H Supply — 4566–4580 — bearish OB, London rejections here
- 15m Demand — 4550–4553 — consolidation base, two bounces
- Bearish Target 1 — 4548.91 — Monday open retest
- Bearish Target 2 — 4509.69 — Friday close, unfilled FVG base
- Bullish Only Above — 4580 with volume — then 4600 opens up
- Real Catalyst — Wednesday — Comex open + US data flow
Session Breakdown — No Comex, No Commitment
This is not a normal Monday. Comex futures are dark. The CME Gold contract is not printing. Gold spot price forecast 25 May 2026 on London-only volume is unreliable — spreads are wider, fills are worse, and the moves are exaggerated in both directions. (This is exactly the kind of day algorithmic traders love and retail traders get wrecked on. Thin book. Wide spread. Fake moves. You have been warned.)
The 15m supply at 4563–4575 has capped two London pushes. The 15m demand at 4550–4553 has caught two dips. Price is coiling. The breakout — whichever direction — will be magnified by the thin book. My preference is to wait. The FVG below 4548 needs filling at some point this week. Wednesday with Comex open is the cleaner session to position in Gold.
Economic Events — Week Ahead
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 25 May | US Memorial Day — Comex closed | No futures volume |
| Wed 27 May | US Consumer Confidence | Medium — USD direction |
| Thu 29 May | US GDP Q1 Revised | High — real mover |
| Fri 30 May | PCE Inflation + Core PCE | High — Gold key driver |
PCE Friday is the number for Gold. If PCE comes in hot (above 2.5%), real rate expectations shift and Gold could give back 4400. If PCE disappoints, Gold runs 4600+. Today is noise. Friday is the trade.
Trade Setup Summary
- Preferred Action — Sit on hands — Comex dark, thin liquidity
- Short Setup — Rejection at 4563–4575 with 15m bearish confirmation
- Short Target 1 — 4548 — Monday open
- Short Target 2 — 4509 — Friday close / FVG fill
- Long Setup — Only above 4580 with volume — not recommended today
- Stop — 4585 — above 1H bearish OB
Gold on Comex holiday is like a chess match with no king on the board — technically possible but somewhat pointless. Wait for Wednesday. The levels are set. The FVG is there. The BSL at 4600 is there. The real players will tell us which way it goes when they turn their screens back on. We will be waiting with fresh charts and sensible position sizes.
