USDCHF Weekly Outlook 25th May 2026 – 29th May 2026 — The BSL Was There, Then It Wasnt
USDCHF Weekly Outlook 25th May 2026 – 29th May 2026. The pair pushed to 0.79070 Tuesday 20th May — the HOH of the last ten weeks — and then spent four consecutive days giving it back. Friday closed at 0.78509. This week opened at 0.78420 and Monday is currently at 0.78186. That is a 350-pip rejection off the BSL cluster and counting. The Swiss franc has not forgotten what the USD owed it, apparently.
Weekly Structure — BSL Rejected, Bearish Pullback Underway
The context: the week of 4th May swept SSL at 0.77618 and closed bearishly at 0.77644. The week of 11th May recovered with a bullish BOS above 0.78482, closing at 0.78696. The week of 18th May pushed to test 0.79070 BSL — and failed to close above 0.78633 (the prior week open). That is a rejected BSL sweep. Swiss franc bearish OB rejection 0.79070 pullback — the daily closes since the HOH confirm the reversal: 0.78896 → 0.78724 → 0.78674 → 0.78509 → 0.78186 (today). Four consecutive lower closes.
The bullish OB from the May 11 recovery sits at 0.77684–0.78200. That zone is the target.
The Levels That Matter This Week
- Weekly Bias — Bearish pullback — BSL rejected at 0.79070, targeting OB retest 0.78200
- Rejected BSL — 0.79070 — HOH, confirmed rejection with lower daily closes
- Current price — 0.78186 — Monday, approaching OB support
- Bullish OB zone — 0.77684–0.78200 — May 11 week recovery base, key support
- Bear target 1 — 0.78200 — OB upper edge, immediate downside
- Bear target 2 — 0.77684 — OB lower edge, deeper retest
- Bull recovery level — 0.78633 — prior week open, reclaim above = bearish OB invalidated
- Extended bear target — 0.77618 — prior SSL, structural support if OB fails
ICT / SMC Framework
The BSL rejection at 0.79070 is the defining event. The smart money used the retail BSL cluster as the exit point — longs accumulated from 0.77618 being distributed back to retail buyers at 0.79070. The subsequent four-day decline is not a pause — it is the distribution phase completing.
USDCHF ICT weekly BSL rejected 0.78200 OB retest — the OB at 0.77684–0.78200 is where institutional buyers originally stepped in during the week of 11th May. Price revisiting that zone is the normal ICT sequence: sweep the BSL, reject, retrace to the OB, and then decide whether to re-accumulate or continue lower.
The key decision point is 0.78200. If price reaches it and holds — produces a bullish daily candle with volume — the setup for a second push to 0.79070 and above becomes valid. If it fails through 0.78200, 0.77684 and then 0.77618 are in play. USD CHF price outlook 25 May 2026 — the next 48 hours will tell us whether this is a healthy pullback or a full reversal.
Trade Setups for the Week
| Setup | Direction | Entry Zone | Target 1 | Target 2 | Stop | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OB retest long | LONG | 0.77684–0.78200 (OB zone) | 0.78633 | 0.79070 | 0.77580 | ~2.0:1 |
| OB rejection sell | SHORT | 0.78420–0.78509 (current week open) | 0.78200 | 0.77684 | 0.78650 | ~1.8:1 |
| OB failure sell | SHORT | 0.78200 break + retest | 0.77618 | 0.77200 | 0.78400 | ~2.4:1 |
Key Economic Events
| Date | Event | USDCHF Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 25 May | US Memorial Day | USD thin — CHF may drift bid in safe-haven mode |
| Wed 27 May | US Durable Goods | USD volatility |
| Thu 28 May | US GDP Q1 2nd est. | Jobless Claims | USD-dominant, strong GDP helps USD |
| Fri 29 May | US PCE Core | Defining event — hot PCE = USD bid, cold PCE = CHF bid |
USDCHF weekly forecast May 25 2026 — the OB retest at 0.77684–0.78200 is this week’s primary trade. The market is in transit between the rejected BSL and the OB support. Friday’s PCE will determine whether the OB holds or cracks. A hot PCE provides USD strength to bounce from the OB. A soft PCE sends price through 0.78200 and the bear case extends to 0.77618.
This is the trade where patience is not just a virtue — it is the entry. Wait for price to reach the OB, wait for a reaction candle, then decide. Selling into thin Monday air at current levels is for the impatient and the margin-account-funded. We will be back Wednesday with cleaner flow and better levels.
