EURUSD Daily Analysis 25th May 2026 — SSL Swept, Bias Flips Cautiously Bullish
EURUSD Daily Analysis 25th May 2026: the SSL at 1.15763 was swept last week and Friday closed at 1.16023. Price opened Monday at 1.16394 — straight through the weekend FVG — and London pushed it to 1.16490. The floor is in. The question now is whether thin Memorial Day liquidity lets it run, or whether we consolidate and save the real move for Wednesday.
Key Levels at a Glance
| Level | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Friday High (PDH) | 1.16185 | Friday session ceiling |
| Friday Low (PDL) | 1.15883 | Friday session floor |
| Friday Close (PDC) | 1.16023 | Weekend gap base |
| Monday Open | 1.16394 | Gap-up through weekend FVG |
| Monday HOD | 1.16490 | London session high |
| Monday LOD | 1.16296 | London open consolidation base |
| 1H Bullish OB | 1.15934–1.16044 | Friday late-session demand base |
| 15m Demand Zone | 1.16296–1.16338 | Monday open consolidation |
| 15m Supply Zone | 1.16452–1.16471 | Session high resistance |
| Weekly BSL Target | 1.16618 | Buy-side cluster above |
ICT/SMC Framework — The Setup
The weekly picture changed last week. EURUSD SSL swept bullish recovery 25 May — price swept the 1.15763 sell-side pool, reversed hard, and closed Friday above the weekly midpoint. That reversal is the shift of character. Monday confirmed it with a gap-up open directly into the weekend FVG (1.16023–1.16394). London filled that gap in the first hour.
On the 1H, the bullish order block at 1.15934–1.16044 (Friday afternoon consolidation) remains unmitigated and untested. That is the safe re-entry zone if London gives us a pullback. On the 15m, Euro dollar CHoCH 1.16394 open 25 May 2026 is the line in the sand — the change of character from bearish to bullish printed at Monday open. As long as price holds above 1.16296, the intraday structure is intact.
The 15m supply at 1.16452–1.16471 is where London sellers have shown up twice. A clean break and hold above 1.16471 opens the 1.16618 BSL cluster. Below 1.16296 and we revisit the weekend FVG. Below 1.16044 and the daily OB comes back into play — but that would take a hard London reversal on a bank holiday, which is possible but unlikely without a catalyst.
Intraday Bias — Cautiously Long
- Daily Bias — Cautiously Bullish — SSL swept, gap-up confirmed
- 15m Demand — 1.16296–1.16338 — Monday open base, pullback entry
- 15m Supply — 1.16452–1.16471 — London session resistance
- Next Target — 1.16618 — BSL cluster
- 1H OB Support — 1.15934–1.16044 — unmitigated, deep pullback level
- Bearish Invalidation — Break below 1.16044 — daily OB flips the script
Session Breakdown — Memorial Day
No US session today. No Fed speakers, no US data prints, no NY volume. London is running the show on a light Monday. EURUSD ICT daily bias cautious 25 May 2026 is the right framing — the structural case is bullish, but size down. Thin order books mean wicks are exaggerated and entries get picked off easier. The 15m demand at 1.16296–1.16338 is the only high-probability long zone before a real NY session returns Wednesday.
Watch the 1.16471 supply into the London close at 12:00 UTC. If price gets rejected there for a third time, that ceiling gets reinforced. If it punches through with volume, target 1.16618 before end of day. Either way, Wednesday is when the real follow-through happens — or doesn’t.
Economic Events — Week Ahead
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 25 May | US Memorial Day — Markets closed | No NY session |
| Tue 26 May | UK Spring Bank Holiday — London light | Thin liquidity continues |
| Wed 27 May | US Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed | Medium |
| Thu 29 May | US GDP (Second Estimate) Q1 | High |
| Fri 30 May | US PCE Inflation, Chicago PMI | High |
The week gets serious Wednesday. PCE Friday is the real mover. Until then, EUR USD price forecast 25 May 2026 is: hold above 1.16296, target 1.16618. Below 1.16044, re-evaluate the week.
Trade Setup Summary
- Long Setup — Pullback to 1.16296–1.16338 — 15m demand entry
- Target 1 — 1.16471 — 15m supply ceiling
- Target 2 — 1.16618 — weekly BSL cluster
- Stop — 1.16220 — below Monday open structure
- Short Setup — Rejection at 1.16471 with 15m bearish confirmation only
- No-trade zone — 1.16044 to 1.16296 — dead air between OB and demand
Memorial Day sessions are about waiting. The structure is set. London told us where the demand sits. Wednesday will tell us whether smart money wants 1.16618 or something lower. I know which way I am leaning. We will be back at the London open Wednesday. I will bring the levels; you bring the patience.
