AUDJPY Swept the 10-Week High at 114.738. The Distribution Has Begun.
Last week was one of the cleanest institutional sequences of the month in AUDJPY. The pair opened the week at 112.995 — which was also the weekly low. Monday opened at the low, accumulated during the Asia and London session, then swept the 10-week BSL at 114.738 on Thursday. That is the manipulation phase. Then the desk flipped the switch: Friday, the pair distributed lower to close at 113.428. The weekly low equals the weekly open. The manipulation sweep took the pair 170+ pips above the open. The distribution brought it back to where the week started — leaving retail buyers who chased the Thursday breakout as the bag-holders.
This is a textbook weekly PO3. The delivery targets are the SSL levels below: 112.193 (May 4 week low) and 111.308 (April 27 week low). The week of the 18th should begin the distribution phase in earnest.
Weekly Structure — 10-Week BSL Sweep and Reversal
| Week | Open | High | Low | Close | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 | 111.784 | 114.374 | 111.748 | 113.654 | BSL build at 114.374 |
| Apr 20 | 113.084 | 114.299 | 113.026 | 113.894 | Premium extension 114.299 |
| Apr 27 | 113.671 | 114.715 | 111.308 | 113.052 | First SSL at 111.308 |
| May 4 | 113.133 | 114.312 | 112.193 | 113.502 | SSL test 2 at 112.193 |
| May 11 | 112.995 | 114.738 | 112.995 | 113.428 | 10-week BSL swept — PO3 complete |
The BSL staircase: 114.374, then 114.299, then 114.715 — each week extending the buy-stops higher. The week of May 11 swept all of them with the 114.738 10-week high. Simultaneously, the SSL staircase below: 111.308 (April 27), 112.193 (May 4) — both tested but never swept. Those stops are loaded. The distribution from 114.738 will deliver price to those levels.
Note the critical detail: the May 11 weekly open and weekly low are both at 112.995. The pair opened at the low and only went higher. This means the institutional smart money spent the entire week above the open — taking buy-side orders at the high, filling their short book, and now poised to deliver lower. The open-equals-low pattern is an institutional fingerprint.
ICT/SMC Framework — Full Distribution Analysis
The 10-week BSL sweep at 114.738 is the manipulation candle. The weekly close at 113.428 is the beginning of the distribution. The BOS on the weekly will be confirmed when price closes below 112.995 (this week low = open). That is the signal for the acceleration lower.
On the daily: the Thursday session swept the BSL and reversed — that is the manipulation candle on the daily. Friday closed at 113.428. The daily OB is the Thursday close zone (113.428–113.502) — any Monday bounce into 113.50–114.00 that fails to make a new daily high is the short entry on the daily timeframe.
- Weekly Bias — Bearish — 10-week BSL swept, PO3 manipulation complete
- Bearish OB (weekly) — 113.50–114.31 — last two weekly close zones
- Bearish OB (daily) — 113.428–113.914 — Friday close to Monday high imbalance
- SSL Target 1 — 112.193 — May 4 week low
- SSL Target 2 — 111.308 — April 27 week low
- Extended target — 108.779 — 10-week low
- Bull invalidation — New weekly close above 114.738 — invalidates the sweep reversal
- Key signal — Weekly close below 112.995 = BOS confirmation, distribution accelerates
Trade Setup for the Week of 18th May
The primary setup is Monday or Tuesday: if AUDJPY bounces into 113.50–114.00 (the daily bearish OB) during the Asia or London session, and the 15m shows a CHoCH bearish after a failed attempt to retake 114.00, that is the short entry. Target: 112.193 (SSL 1), then 111.308 (SSL 2).
The secondary setup is more aggressive: if price opens Monday at 113.00–113.20 and immediately shows bearish daily structure without a bounce above 113.50, the short can be entered at the London open with a tight stop at 114.00. The risk is 80 pips, the target (112.193) is 180 pips away — the R:R works even without waiting for a bounce.
| Setup | Entry Zone | Target 1 | Target 2 | Stop | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish OB (primary) | 113.50–114.00 | 112.193 | 111.308 | 114.80 | approx 2.8:1 |
| London open structure | 113.00–113.30 | 112.193 | 111.308 | 114.00 | approx 2.2:1 |
| Post-SSL sweep | Below 112.00, bounce to 112.50–112.80 | 111.308 | 110.00 | 113.20 | approx 2.5:1 |
Daily Breakdown for the Week Ahead
| Day | Watch Level | Session | Expected Behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 113.00–113.90 | Asia/London | Observe bounce — look for OB rejection at 113.50+ |
| Tuesday | 112.50–113.50 | Post-RBA Minutes | RBA dovish = AUD component falls, AUDJPY lower |
| Wednesday | 112.00–112.50 | London/NY | SSL at 112.193 approached or tested |
| Thursday | 111.30–112.00 | Post-Japan trade balance | SSL zone 2 at 111.308 in range |
| Friday | 110.50–111.30 | Post-Japan CPI | Japan CPI hot = JPY strength = AUDJPY drops fast |
Economic Calendar — Key Risks
| Day | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday | RBA Meeting Minutes | High — dovish = AUD falls, AUDJPY lower |
| Thursday | Japan Trade Balance | Medium — surplus = mild JPY strength |
| Thursday | Australia Employment Change | High — weak jobs = AUD falls faster |
| Friday | Japan National CPI | High — above 3.0% = BOJ hike pricing = JPY strong = AUDJPY accelerates lower |
AUDJPY is a cross that can get hit from both sides simultaneously. Dovish RBA weakens AUD. Hawkish BOJ expectations strengthen JPY. If both happen in the same week — which the economic calendar suggests is possible — the pair does not gently descend to 112.193. It gaps through it. Friday Japan CPI firing in Asian hours is the highest-risk single event of the week: a hot print could see AUDJPY gap below 112.00 on Friday morning, running both the SSL at 112.193 and the April 27 SSL at 111.308 in a single overnight session.
Killzone Setups
Asia Session — Monday 00:00–03:00 GMT (Sydney/Tokyo): AUDJPY is primarily an Asia session pair. The first directional move often occurs in the 23:00–03:00 GMT window (Sunday night London time). If a bounce to 113.50–114.00 occurs in that window and fails, the London session follows through lower. This is the entry most London-centric traders miss.
London Open — Monday 07:00–09:00 GMT: If the Asia session already sold the bounce, London carries the trade lower. If Asia produced no clear setup, observe London for the first 90 minutes before entering.
Friday Japan CPI (Thursday 23:30 GMT): Fires in Asia. If hot, Friday opens with a gap lower on AUDJPY. The gap below 112.193 would be the SSL sweep event. Do not chase the gap — let price find the bounce, then reassess.
Honest Risk Assessment
The 10-week BSL sweep at 114.738 is the highest-conviction bearish signal on the weekly. The open-equals-low candle structure from last week is the institutional fingerprint. The distribution targets (112.193, 111.308) are well-defined. The trade thesis is sound.
The execution risk: AUDJPY can be volatile in both directions. The Japan CPI event on Friday could produce a fast 200-pip move in either direction depending on the print. If the position is on through that event, ensure the stop is above the weekly OB at 114.00 — not the week high at 114.738. The wide stop hurts on a bad trade but saves the account on a hot Japan CPI miss.
We will be back at the Tokyo open Monday. I will bring the levels; you bring the understanding that this cross moves fast and slow simultaneously — slow enough to set up, fast enough to punish hesitation.
