The Aussie Swept BSL at 0.7271, Then Collapsed. This Is What PO3 Looks Like.
If you want a textbook weekly Power of Three printed on a major forex pair, AUDUSD last week is the example you laminate and keep next to your monitor. Accumulation at the weekly open (0.72220) through Wednesday. Manipulation phase: BSL swept at 0.72716 on Thursday — that was the institutional collection event. Every retail breakout buyer who had orders above 0.72500 became the counterparty. Distribution phase: Friday, the pair dropped from the high to a low of 0.71397, closing at 0.71444. One hundred and twenty-seven pips of distribution in a single session.
The weekly close at 0.71444 sits eleven pips above the April 27 week low at 0.71015. That SSL is the next institutional target. The Aussie is not resting, and the week of the 18th will likely test that level within the first two sessions.
Weekly Structure — The PO3 Sequence Plays Out
| Week | Open | High | Low | Close | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 | 0.70009 | 0.72218 | 0.69878 | 0.71661 | BSL build from 10-week low |
| Apr 20 | 0.71202 | 0.71859 | 0.71109 | 0.71480 | Consolidation, SSL at 0.71015 |
| Apr 27 | 0.71296 | 0.72278 | 0.71015 | 0.71992 | First SSL test at 0.71015 |
| May 4 | 0.72210 | 0.72776 | 0.71355 | 0.72426 | 10-week BSL at 0.72776 |
| May 11 | 0.72220 | 0.72716 | 0.71397 | 0.71444 | BSL sweep + PO3 distribution |
The 10-week BSL at 0.72776 was built in the May 4 week. Last week swept to 0.72716 — just 60 pips short of the 10-week high. Two consecutive weeks of BSL attempts (0.72776 and 0.72716), both rejected. The institutional message is clear: there are no buyers above 0.727. There are only sellers. The double BSL rejection is the confirmation that the macro bias is bearish.
The 10-week range: high 0.72776, low 0.68332. Friday close at 0.71444 puts the pair in the upper half of the 10-week range. There is significant discount below — the institutions have room to deliver lower prices.
ICT/SMC Framework — Full HTF and LTF Analysis
The weekly HTF bias is bearish. The BOS (break of structure) was confirmed when the May 11 weekly close (0.71444) broke below the prior week close (0.72426) with conviction. The double BSL rejection at 0.72716–0.72776 is the distribution ceiling — it will not be re-tested without first taking out the SSL below.
The daily FVG: Thursday’s close at 0.72426 (May 4 week) and this week’s open at 0.72220 created a gap that was never filled intra-week. The daily open Monday in the 0.71800–0.72000 zone represents the prior week imbalance. Any Monday bounce into that zone is the bearish OB entry — the smart money has unfilled sell orders there from Thursday’s distribution candle.
- Weekly Bias — Bearish — double BSL rejection, PO3 distribution
- Bearish OB (primary) — 0.71800–0.72000 — weekly open zone imbalance
- Bearish OB (secondary) — 0.72000–0.72220 — this week open, now resistance
- SSL Target 1 — 0.71015 — April 27 week low, third test
- SSL Target 2 — 0.70009 — April 13 week low
- Extended target — 0.69878–0.68332 — 10-week low area
- Bull invalidation — Weekly close above 0.72776 — double BSL becomes invalid
- PO3 note — Distribution phase in progress — do not fight the sequence
Trade Setup for the Week of 18th May
The primary setup is a Monday or Tuesday retracement into 0.71800–0.72000 — the weekly open imbalance zone. This is where the smart money distributed price downward on Friday. They have unfilled sell orders there. If London session encounters price at that zone and shows a bearish 15m CHoCH, that is the short entry.
The secondary setup: if the pair opens below 0.71400 Monday and immediately slides toward 0.71015 (the April 27 SSL), wait for the sweep below 0.71000 and the reaction. A failed bounce after the sweep = reload short for 0.70009.
| Setup | Entry Zone | Target 1 | Target 2 | Stop | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish OB (primary) | 0.71800–0.72000 | 0.71015 | 0.70009 | 0.72200 | approx 3.2:1 |
| Secondary — deeper OB | 0.72000–0.72220 | 0.71015 | 0.70009 | 0.72450 | approx 2.8:1 |
| Post-SSL sweep | Below 0.71000, bounce to 0.71200–0.71400 | 0.70009 | 0.69000 | 0.71700 | approx 2:1 |
Daily Breakdown for the Week Ahead
| Day | Watch Level | Session | Expected Behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 0.71400–0.72000 | London | Bounce from Friday low — gauge OB rejection |
| Tuesday | 0.71800–0.72000 | Post-RBA Minutes | RBA tone drives AUD — dovish = direct sell |
| Wednesday | 0.71000–0.71500 | NY session | SSL at 0.71015 approached or tested |
| Thursday | 0.70500–0.71000 | London/NY | Post-SSL area — watch for bounce or break |
| Friday | 0.70000–0.70500 | NY close | Secondary SSL at 0.70009 possible end-of-week target |
Economic Calendar — Key Risks
| Day | Event | Consensus | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday | RBA Meeting Minutes (May) | Neutral-to-dovish expected | High — dovish language = AUD selloff |
| Wednesday | Australia Wage Price Index Q1 | ~3.5% YoY | Medium — below forecast = dovish pressure on RBA |
| Thursday | Australia Employment Change | — | High — weak jobs = AUD lower |
| Friday | Australia Flash PMI | — | Low |
The RBA Minutes on Tuesday are the primary domestic risk event. The RBA has been navigating between sticky services inflation and a softening labour market. If the Minutes lean dovish — language around future rate cuts or concerns about the consumer — AUD will take another leg lower immediately. That would send AUDUSD toward 0.71015 before the London session Tuesday even has a chance to set up the OB entry. Thursday Australia Employment is the second key event: a weak print below 15k net jobs would confirm the economic softening narrative and accelerate the bearish move toward 0.70009.
Killzone Setups
London Open — Monday 07:00–09:00 GMT: First observation. If AUDUSD has bounced overnight from 0.71444 into 0.71800–0.72000, London open is the entry window. A bearish 15m CHoCH after tagging the OB = short.
Post-RBA Minutes Tuesday 01:30 GMT (Sydney time): Fires in the Asian session — that means it impacts Tuesday’s London open direction. If the Minutes are dovish, Tuesday London opens with AUD already sold. Do not try to short below 0.71015 after the fact — wait for any bounce to 0.71200–0.71400 and then short.
Post-Employment Thursday 01:30 GMT: Another Asian session release. Weak jobs = AUD gaps lower. If the SSL at 0.71015 has not been swept yet by Thursday, a weak employment number may be the event that triggers the sweep. Position lightly through the release.
Honest Risk Assessment
The Aussie dropped 127 pips on Friday alone. Chasing the short below 0.71444 on Monday open carries high mean-reversion risk. The SSL at 0.71015 is eleven pips below Friday’s close — the pair has almost no room to fall before hitting that level. The probability of a bounce to 0.718–0.720 before breaking 0.71015 is high.
Do not short the gap down open. Wait for the bounce, trade the structure off the OB, and let the SSL take care of itself. The measured move from the BSL sweep at 0.72716 to the 10-week low at 0.68332 is 440 pips. Friday already covered 130 pips of that. There is 310 pips left in the measured move. None of them require you to short a 127-pip gap down open.
We will be back at the London open. I will bring the levels; you bring the awareness that the Aussie is not done falling, but the entry matters more than the thesis.
